Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 169 - 119

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

168. Tazmanian
6:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
it this wont do march it will most likey fall a part by that mid to upper level trough wish it that wave will be runing in to
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
167. Drakoen
6:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I don't see any spin.
Lets wait and see what the NHC says. Also, StormW should be giving us an update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
166. MisterJohnny
6:12 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
165. gthsii
6:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
On that CMC model, everytime I start the animation and then press the stop button it wont stop. Am I the only one that has this issue or do others notice it as well?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
164. Tazmanian
6:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: aggie17 at 6:06 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Taz, what do you think about the latest CMC run?

the cmc gone nuts
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
163. nash28
6:10 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Taz- Do you want to elaborate on why the wave approaching the Lesser Antillies isn't worth watching?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
162. Tazmanian
6:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
: Drakoen if you look at this loop you see this wave may have a spin to it not sure if its to the sfc or not but it is moveing WNW or W

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
161. moonlightcowboy
6:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Is it a safe assumption to say that convection along the itcz, normally is at all levels: lower, mid and upper?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
160. Tazmanian
6:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
MrNiceville it wont do march thats why!
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
159. weathersp
2:06 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
The 12z CMC Run... Its total BS, don't believe it.. I don't know what's happen to that model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
157. MrNiceville
6:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Taz,

Why not the wave in front of it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
156. Drakoen
6:03 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Taz that blob looking like its may go into South America. the wave by the lesser Anitlles is more interesting; as well as the wave at 30W 15 N.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
155. nash28
6:02 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The fact that the CMC bombs this thing out the further north it goes, which is cooler SST's is enough to discount it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
154. Tazmanian
6:00 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
this wave i am watching wish will likey be come 97L

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
153. Indialanticgirl
6:00 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
thanks Nash!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
152. nash28
5:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Even the track the CMC has for this ridiculous storm is out in left field!!!! Looking at the latest WV and steering imagery for the next week plus, I see NOTHING forcing a storm due north from that position. In fact, the opposite would happen. Basically due west to WNW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
151. nash28
5:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Link

Here is the CMC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
150. Drakoen
5:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
149. weathersp
1:56 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
CMC is on the Fritz!

New England Storm of 2007.... NOT!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148. nash28
5:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Sorry Drak:-) Missed that post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
147. nash28
5:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Absolutely! Very glad to see you StormW! Take it easy ok? Things are gonna get busy soon enough:-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
145. Drakoen
5:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 5:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Hey Drak- That area you circled is a mid to upper level trough.


Yea i know i was showing MLC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
144. Indialanticgirl
5:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
can someone post the link to the latest CMC model? thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. MrNiceville
5:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
sorry to hear about the no driving

Great to hear you'll be doing more analysis - looks like your skills are going to be needed in the next week or so, here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
142. nash28
5:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hey Drak- That area you circled is a mid to upper level trough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
141. moonlightcowboy
5:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ok, understand, Drakoen. Thanks, again!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
139. Drakoen
5:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
138. nash28
5:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hey Stormybil. Not sure if any of the waves will become an actual TC.... Wouldn't be surprised to see an Invest from the wave nearing the Lesser Antillies if convection remains persistent.

Beyond that? Probably not much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
137. Drakoen
5:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 5:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Just looking at that quick Drak, closer attention to the one over the Lesser Antilles, and behind that. Reason...as you said, shear is lowering in Caribbean, and that upper low is far enough away in the eastern Caribbean, that it's actually venting anything to the west.


Yes. Alot of interesting wave coming in...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
135. MrNiceville
5:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
StormW - w/b. Good to see you can still type! Are you feeling better today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
133. stormybil
5:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
hi everyone so many waves which one has the first shot to be something thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
130. moonlightcowboy
5:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
...I'm guessing that we could see that CATL spinning low, bust out, at about 48w,13n! imhg...lol


....WHAT do you see, StormW?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
129. MrNiceville
5:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
cchs - exactly what I asked at 9:30 this morning (central time). Glad someone else thinks the same...

More closely to home - the wave moving over the Windward Islands - doesn't look like it's being sheared to death - just punished severely. Is that spin on the tail end of the wave, just NW of T&T? Or is it just convection that is back-filling?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
128. nash28
5:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Good to see you today StormW!

It won't be long before we are discussing a TC. No development yet, but the train has begun leaving the station .....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
125. gthsii
5:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
[quote]but it needs a real email address[/quote]

i highly doubt that, it most likely checks the format of the email address entered into that textbox (XXX@XXX.XXX; where x is any alphanumeric value), but short of actually sending a test email to that address and waiting for a non delivery response or requiring a user to respond to an email at that address, there's no way for them to validate an email.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
124. Drakoen
5:46 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
We are just looking at a couple of tropical waves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
123. moonlightcowboy
5:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hey, StormW...glad you're getting some good attention..."she"???

...anyways, glad to see you back on, and looking foward to your blog update.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
121. cchsweatherman
5:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Is it just me or is that surface low trying to draw the moisture and convection from the ITCZ into it? These waves are looking more interesting every time. The two waves approaching the Lesser Antilles look very impressive in terms of convection. They even look to have a faint sign of some circulation. It could be the thunderstorms playing a trick on my eyes. The CMC looks to me like its on crack right now. The NE should not worry about that model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120. moonlightcowboy
5:43 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Drakoen, can you "show" me the UL trough?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
119. Drakoen
5:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
the shear is really starting to drop as that upper level trough moves out of the area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 169 - 119

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast