Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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218. Drakoen
7:12 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 7:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Hey everyone....is there anything of interest that has the potential to develop within the next couple of days.?? and when does everyone think we will see 97L?


there is one low pressure area around 15N 32W. Associated with a tropical wave.
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216. Drakoen
7:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Taz you didn't have to get rid of the post. I will post it again. Also notice the high is at 1032mb.
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215. Tazmanian
7:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
her the link

Link
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213. Drakoen
7:06 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
It is rather big.If it can move further south it has a chance. the GFS brings it to down 12N in 18 hours.
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212. groundman
7:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 6:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
You can see it clearly here. I don't know if the low is pulling moisture from the ITCZ. Hard to tell.


Isn't this the low that someone was talking about last night that's size is against it somewhat because it would have a harder time organizing cuz it's so big?

At least we have things to watch?!
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211. Tazmanian
7:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
look like the ITCZ is more N then it was in 2005 at this time
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210. hurricane23
3:02 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
The SAL in the area is indeed less but its still there and due to that the waves coming of africa will face a tough battle.They would have to stay far south in order to have a chance.
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209. Drakoen
7:03 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
yea taz. OH could you resize your image the width shoudl be 640. The image is too wide.
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207. Tazmanian
7:00 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
has any one noted at all that the ITCZ is more N now then what it has been

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206. Drakoen
6:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
SAL really starting to clear up
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205. Drakoen
6:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
You can see it clearly here. I don't know if the low is pulling moisture from the ITCZ. Hard to tell.
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204. nash28
6:56 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
As I said, the CMC track is assbackwards.

It is showing a huge weakness in the ridge, while all of the other models show a building ridge and anything that did develop would move due west or WNW.
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203. cchsweatherman
6:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
That surface low in the image posted by Drak is pulling in convection and moisture from the ITCZ. That is a very interesting development as it would appear this means some sign of possible tropical development. Your thoughts on it?
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201. Drakoen
6:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
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200. hurricane23
2:45 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
The CMC has been forcasting these phantom storms all over the place for weeks now and being the only model thats forcasting this i would not put to much stock on it takeing shape.

For those interested i posted the lastest model discussion on the cmc forcast a little up in the blog.
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198. weatherblog
6:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Don't beileve the CMC; totally on crack!!

In the atlantic, there are a few interests of disturbed weather. Nothing organized though.

If anything were to develop, it'd the Lesser Antilles wave, only becasue shear in the caribbean is forecasted to lower. Also, maybe, as Dr. M stated in his blog when on Saturday a stalling trough will be off near the Carolinas...need to watch that scenario.

Not to mention, in a week or two when SAL and shear lowers even more, waves that come off Africa, should be monitered very closely, becasue the conditions may be favorable, and a bunch of tropical cyclones may form.

So, as said, as of now, watch some of the waves coming off of Africa, the disturbed weather near the Lesser Antilles and South America associated with the ITZC, and not to mention the SE coast near the carolinas also.
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197. FlaRob
6:43 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
JP, what conditions does the MJO influence? I know what it stands for, I just don't understand what it enhances ect.
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193. Drakoen
6:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N30W 6N32W. A 1012 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE LOW
ITSELF CONSISTS OF ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING IN BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD INVERTED V SHAPE. UPPER E/SE FLOW S
OF AN UPPER HIGH IS DISPLACING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THIS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
AFFECTING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-64W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90NM E OF THE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85/86W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WITHIN 200NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 15N. A SIMILAR PATCH OF
CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE THE SRN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS
WAVE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC AS DESCRIBED IN THE
PACIFIC DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWDEP.
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191. Drakoen
6:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
yes MLC. the MJO acts to increase convection and lower SFC pressures.
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190. nawlinsdude
6:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I agree things are getting more active. The GOM SST'S are dangerously hot.
189. hurricane23
2:28 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
With no other model agreement on the forcast by the CMC i dont see it takeing shape.As i stated early in my personal opinion i put the CMC model right up with the NAM when it comes to forcasting tropical cyclones.Infact the CMC has done very poor so far this tropical season on genesis.

Here is a piece of the lastest model discussion..

THE CANADIAN...ALWAYS ENTERTAINING WITH TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS...DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE FEATURE THAT MOVES DUE NORTH FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH THROWS ITS SOLUTION INTO MAJOR DOUBT SINCE NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE HINTS AT A TROPICAL FEATURE AND THE ROUNDY TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY DIAGRAMS DO NOT SUPPORT IT. CHI VELOCITY POTENTIAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OFF THE CANADIAN SHOW FAVORABLE 200MB DIVERGENCE BUT UNFAVORABLE LOWER CONVERGENCE. OTHER MODELS SHOW UNFAVORABLE CONDS.


One other note the 72hr surface map from the NHC has this wave moving west into the caribbean.
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188. DaytonaBeachWatcher
6:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
SW
I may be wrong but I think that if the CMC was on the right track with a system that, according to the GFS (which I think is a more reliable model right now) the timing is a little off. The CMC is too fast with the breakdown of the ridge near there. The breakdown would actually happen a little later, hence the system a further west.

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187. WeatherfanPR
6:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hi Guys : Things are getting active. This wave over the antilles looks healthy, we could be dealing with a strong wave or td forming near Puerto Rico. Also the ITCZ is very active, a lot of moisture. Where's the dry air?
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186. Drakoen
6:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
the GFS has that low close to 12N is 18 hours.
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185. moonlightcowboy
6:30 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thanks, Drakoen. That certainly sheds light on understanding SAL effects at the different "levels."

Thanks, I know I'm full of questions!!! lol

Now, would an "upward" pulse from the MJO cause convection to rise and disipate SAL at the lower...and consequently, other levels?
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184. Drakoen
6:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
yes MLC.
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183. moonlightcowboy
6:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Drakoen, ok then, according the mid-level wv shot, I would guess that SAL is not really effecting the low at mid and upper levels...the problem is at the surface (low levels) then?
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182. hosweather
6:19 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The UKMET tends to back up the CMC. It doesn't actually show a storm developing, but its sea level pressure over the next 5 days shows the breakdown in the ridge where CMC takes the storm up to New England.
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180. Drakoen
6:23 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 6:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Ok, Drakoen, I think you're saying there's WV at the mid and upper levels usually; but less at the surface because of SAL?


Yes. SAL affects the mid-lower levels.
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179. Drakoen
6:22 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

what up all

why would the CMC have that type of track unless the ridge was eroded severly


LOL that what i am wondering. The CMC is on crack.
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177. moonlightcowboy
6:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Ok, Drakoen, I think you're saying there's WV at the mid and upper levels usually; but less at the surface because of SAL?
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176. Tazmanian
6:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
and any thing that pops up right now would taske it in to the gulf coast or the E coast of FL
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175. Drakoen
6:18 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
usually ITCZ convection goes to the upper levels but when it comes down its lessens as it reaches the surface, due to SAL.
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174. Drakoen
6:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
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173. moonlightcowboy
6:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 6:15 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
Taz the upper level trough isn't near the wave lol.


...lol, that's what had me confused earlier, Drakoen...knew there was no trough near there.

ALSO, that's mid-level wv, is there ITCZ convection normally too, at the low and upper levels usually? OH! and TIA, again!
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172. weathersp
2:14 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Here StormW..

CMC
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171. Drakoen
6:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Taz the upper level trough isn't near the wave lol.
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170. Drakoen
6:13 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
MLC heres the mid level water vapor imagery.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.