Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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269. ryang
4:23 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Hello Pottery, lightening(And thunder) around 6:00, and an inch of rain.
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268. pottery2
4:23 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Ryang, seems like the north of Tobago had some nasty weather last night.
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267. Drakoen
8:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
HurrMichael0rl the CMC is picking up on a different area than the low we are looking at.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
266. pandora1783
3:22 PM EST on July 18, 2007
If, by small chance, the cold front moving off the Carolina's Saturday was to produce a tropical disturbance, what are we looking at? Just a depression or something bigger?
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265. pottery2
4:19 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Hello Ryang. You got some weather last night ? Had some lightening around 2:00 am, but only 12 mm of rain.
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264. Drakoen
8:18 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ryang the computer models have the low moving to the south. Just something to watch. If it can get down to 10N it has a better chance.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
263. HurrMichaelOrl
8:03 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
So if this area in the Atlantic were to develop it would likely move in the general direction of Florida, rather than north like the cmc shows?
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262. Drakoen
8:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ryang, just a low with convection in the ITCZ. You can see it on the RGB pick i posted. Its really the only thing to watch as well as the next wave coming of Africa.
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261. Tazmanian
8:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
there are organized areas to watch
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260. ryang
4:16 PM AST on July 18, 2007
The CATL wave has a chance... But SAL to the West.
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259. ryang
4:14 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Good Afternoon...

So, no organized areas to watch... well for now?
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258. Skyepony (Mod)
8:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Drak~ That's the 2nd run showing development there. Just thought I'd end this myth that the CMC gives the antillies wave some mystical power to roll north & gain power. Ya know~ point out the ULL, something besides the happenings at the surface, like how the CMC is really considering it. Contitions are far from favorable, like I stated a few things need to move & change location for it to happen.
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257. Drakoen
8:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I like the RGB. really picks up stuff well in the day.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
256. jamnkats
7:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I guess you can believe anything you want but it has nothing to do with that I have a website that I want to know where most people are from so that I will put most of my time into constructing the forecasts for them if you look at my site you can see that a lot of the cities do not have current conditions and I am going to add current conditions to the state(first) that shows up the most but the people I do the survey with have to have real email addresses in-case anything goes wrong while prossessing the survey I promice not to email anyone who uses the survey I will even add a question that asks whether they are OK with recieving a conformation email from me.

thundercloud; We live in PaaMul, Quintana Roo Mexico which is between the Mexican coast and the island of Cozumel; about 60km south of Cancun.
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255. Drakoen
8:02 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
LOL we are really discussing the posibility of cyclongenesis from the CMC (cyclogenesis machine)???
Its not better than the NAM at this point...
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254. Skyepony (Mod)
7:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
What the CMC is showing is the ULL that is sitting North of DR & East of FL... The one that 1/2 shredded & 1/2 ate yesterday's PR blob (like I discussed would happen yesterday). Well the CMC is showing that going warm core off the energy from the current antillies wave. I wish the CMC 250 vort was working, but the 500 vort is so you can see how it's calling this to form from the midlevels.

Going back to the 1st loop, the ridge needs to flatten North of the ULL for this to happen & it looks like it is trying, but at the moment the whole thing is too elongated to go warm core. If the B/A high drops more south it would farther aid it go warm core as some of the moisture ripped from the wave wouldn't get strewn east away from the ULL like the energy it stole yesterday.
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253. Drakoen
7:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:58 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

No problem Drakoen....

Lots of disorganized areas of convection across the tropical atlantic but no organization for the time being.


Yea i agree.
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252. hurricane23
3:56 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
No problem Drakoen....

Lots of disorganized areas of convection across the tropical atlantic but no organization for the time being.
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251. Drakoen
7:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hurricane23 i said it would be interesting. I know there is SAL, the computer models have the system moving further to the south, i guess we will see what happens.
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250. hurricane23
3:52 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
I dont see it pulling in moisture at the moment and from the looks of things it looks like it will continue to battle with the SAL to its north.
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249. Tazmanian
7:51 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
lol
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248. WeatherfanPR
7:50 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
p
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247. Drakoen
7:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Interesting loop. Would be interesting if the low could draw moisture from the ITCZ. Also i would watch the nest wave coming of Africa. The is not SAL is front of the wave for the time being.


Link
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246. Chicklit
7:48 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
H23: Have you ever seen anything actually do that? I cannot recall a system ever traveling vertically that way...
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245. hurricane23
3:42 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
You can also see the wave the CMC shoots north like a rocket continue into the caribbean as noted by the NHC surface maps which i posted a little up in the blog.
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244. weathermanwannabe
2:39 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
You can see the front off North Carolina in the 72 Hour forecast that Dr. M. mentioned this morning
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243. Tazmanian
7:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
24hr Surface Forecasts

lol

48hr Surface Forecasts

lol

72hr Surface Forecasts

lol
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242. Drakoen
7:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: amazinwxman at 7:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

If that arrow is the direction the low is moving in it looks like it will be moving into South America before it has a real chance to get going.


Not necessarily. I see a wsw moition. Hard to depict using paint. The steering currents suggest that it would move in the general direction of the lesser Antilles.
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241. groundman
7:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 7:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
And that means, we're probably on our way to 97L, and Chantal.

IMVHO


I've thought so too but it was just so durn OBVIOUS and weird looking I didn't know. Plus after the last failed 97L I was afraid of being a definite westcasting wishcaster. Weather is worth looking @ today though!
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240. amazinwxman
7:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
If that arrow is the direction the low is moving in it looks like it will be moving into South America before it has a real chance to get going.
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239. Drakoen
7:28 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Drakoen may be that sfc low will be come 97L soon?


It would have to move further south and build convection around the low. Right now this is the only area of interest. The wave by the lesser Antilles is not much of a concern. Does not appear to have a SFC low or showing signs of organization.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
238. weathermanwannabe
2:25 PM CDT on July 18, 2007
Back for a spot check and.....Looks like the Antilles wave has started its "jog" NE towards Boston..........Just Kidding..
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237. tornadofan
7:25 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hurricane23 - what in world is that post? I live in Mobile area and could help notice it mentions Mobile.
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236. Tazmanian
7:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Drakoen may be that sfc low will be come 97L soon?
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235. Drakoen
7:22 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
the one by 32W is at the SFC. look at the surface charts...
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234. amazinwxman
7:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
So guys where is this surface low located and does it have a spin and any convection with it?
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233. initforwaves
7:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thanks drakoen. I trust you more than wikipedia, even if you're just quoting it.
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232. Drakoen
7:20 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
i need to see that ridge break for me to believe it.
Here it is Taz.
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231. initforwaves
7:21 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
quikscat data: tropical wave over antilles doesn't appear to have a sfc low, can't tell for the one by 32W
QSCAT
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230. hosweather
7:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The UKMET is showing the same break in the ridge at 60 hours that the CMC is showing.
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229. Drakoen
7:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Position
The location of the intertropical convergence zone varies over time. Over land, it moves back and forth across the equator following the sun's zenith point. Over the oceans, where the convergence zone is better defined, the seasonal cycle is more subtle, as the convection is constrained by the distribution of ocean temperatures.

Sometimes, a double ITCZ forms, with one located north and another south of the equator. When this occurs, a narrow ridge of high pressure forms between the two convergence zones, one of which is usually stronger than the other.

Role in tropical cyclone formation
Tropical cyclogenesis depends upon low-level vorticity as one of its six requirements, and the ITCZ/monsoon trough fills this role as it is a zone of wind change and speed, otherwise known as horizontal wind shear. As the ITCZ migrates more than 500 km from the equator during the respective hemisphere's summer season, increasing coriolis force makes the formation of tropical cyclones within this zone more possible. In the north Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific oceans, tropical waves move along the axis of the ITCZ causing an increase in thunderstorm activity, and under weak vertical wind shear, these clusters of thunderstorms can become tropical cyclones.

(WIKIPEDIA)
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228. Tazmanian
7:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Drakoen where is this sfc low going and is there a photo of it?
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227. moonlightcowboy
7:13 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I've been posting links to the amount of SAL being reduced the last couple of days, and apparently it's become more evident today.

If SAL has been prevalent at the lower levels, obviously, the low is getting moisture from the surface. It's only now (maybe not even now) that it's been able to get any moisture from the Itcz, although I think it has been, but barely.

This should also mean that there is WV at the mid and upper levels. Links have been posted to show that as well.

Then, if SAL is now less, that means there's likely convection beginning to grow at the SFC level, too. And that means, we're probably on our way to 97L, and Chantal.

IMVHO
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226. Drakoen
7:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:15 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

is that low pressure to the Sfc?


Yes.
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225. initforwaves
7:15 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
random question: what factors contribute to the location of the ITCZ? seems to be bending all over the place at the moment
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224. Drakoen
7:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
LMAO huricane23. We might see something like that this season thought with that high in place.
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223. Tazmanian
7:14 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
is that low pressure to the Sfc?
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222. initforwaves
7:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
thank god for the SAL and lower SST's off africa at the moment, i bet if the wave around 33W had occurred in september, we'd be looking at a strong TS already
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221. hurricane23
3:14 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
.
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220. Tazmanian
7:13 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
: Drakoen yes i do see that 1032mb high
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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