Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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319. stormybil
9:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
see the big one over africa if that holds when it comes off we really will be talking here
318. moonlightcowboy
9:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: gthsii at 9:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
MLC: in imagery like the one u posted from meteosat...how can one tell upper level from lower level circulation?


I'm not sure I can answer that; but, my understanding is, that SAL is more of a sfc condition. If you'll look where the dust(pink) is, that is at lower levels and there is spin there. Then, there's convection firing upwards and rotation as well, the darker the clouds-the higher. That is definitely IMHO.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
317. sporteguy03
9:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ryan,
Appears to be spinning though and in a ball not like the train from the steamer to the rail car.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
315. benirica
9:42 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
anyone? that loop you the link was for was old, wasnt it? look at it again and look over at the caribbean, and then look at another image of right now, the wave in the Caribbean isnt there on that links loop!
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314. moonlightcowboy
9:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
StormW, look at this link I posted below, scroll all the way to the right and see if you see spin at all levels, please!

It's embedded in the Itcz I think, but significant rotation seems to be there, somewhere around 23w, 13n, I think. TIA

Link

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
313. stormybil
9:39 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ok you got me im so conused with all these waves we should start to name them for some id

how about for exaple T.W. AND THE LOCATION WHAT YOU THINK
it will be easy to keep track of them
312. ryang
5:41 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Looks to be ITCZ convection, probadly being enhanced?
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311. benirica
9:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
yea 50W is going WNW
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310. sporteguy03
9:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Storm any comments on that wave near 50 10 looks organized what do you think?
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309. gthsii
9:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
MLC: in imagery like the one u posted from meteosat...how can one tell upper level from lower level circulation?
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308. sporteguy03
9:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
It looks to be moving a little more WNW
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307. sporteguy03
9:39 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
NE of South America, looks organized to me?
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306. ryang
5:38 PM AST on July 18, 2007
That area near 50W 10N looks very interesting just seems something to really watch, isn't that the area Charley formed?

Too far south, but hey... can't rule it out.
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305. benirica
9:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
in this loop the wave near PR isnt even in the Caribbean yet
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303. ryang
5:37 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Isn't SE a little to far from the actual Wave? Anyway, i see what you mean.
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302. benirica
9:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
is this not an old image?
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301. weathers4me
9:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
where is that wave located?
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300. sporteguy03
9:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
That area near 50W 10N looks very interesting just seems something to really watch, isn't that the area Charley formed?
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299. moonlightcowboy
9:35 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
RYANG, nope, it's SE, almost due south of the Verdes. You're not looking at the right spot. Scroll all the way over to the right. The sw one is the spinning low that we've all, already been watching.
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298. ryang
5:33 PM AST on July 18, 2007
By the way, It's SW of the Verdes...
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297. ryang
5:31 PM AST on July 18, 2007
WOW MLC, i see it, looks like it might fire convection tonight, the durinal phrase.
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296. moonlightcowboy
9:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Ok, I'm gonna pull a Kman! I've spotted a new swirl...lol, really!

Open this link. Then scroll all the way to the right of the page. You can see the new swirl just se of the Verdes.

This may be the one that comes in and develops after the low clears SAL out of the way? This has been my concern the last two or three days. It's bordering on the Itcz I think, but appears to have circ at low, mid, upper levels. IMVHO. Let's see.

Here's the link. Link
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
295. tropicfreak
5:28 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
If it develops and hits VA and the carolina coast i'll post my pics.
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294. tropicfreak
5:24 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Here's the front

US
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293. StormJunkie
9:26 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Yep tf, looks like the lower end of that front is going to stall out near the Charleston, SC area.
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292. tropicfreak
5:21 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Guys not only are we talking about the 2 waves but we should also be talking about the front coming off the east coast Sat.I should get some rain and tstorms fri from that very same front.
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290. tropicfreak
5:18 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Wow those waves are strong!
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289. gthsii
9:18 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ben: very true and also very humbling. nature and its beauty.
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288. benirica
9:09 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
it is still something that humbles me (if you will) to see how nature working by a clock... its just so awesome... something so grand.
lol sorry if that was just random but as if right on schedule everything aligns to hit August right on the nose with the beginning of the Cape Verde Season.
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287. scwindsaloft
9:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
So now may be the beginning of some real blob watching!
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 399
285. moonlightcowboy
9:01 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thanks, StormW. Good analysis. I think that's also been the consensus of a few here, too.

...looks like trouble ahead, soon!!!


Hope you're feeling well...stay well, we'll need your input here frequently!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
284. benirica
8:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
thanks stormw puts things into perspective for alot of us and gives a clear answer to alot of questions atleast i have had
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283. msphar
8:45 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I think these videos by BOSBURN are great.
http://www.youtube.com/user/bosburn
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
282. gthsii
8:54 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thanks Stormw: nice job, somewhat scary outlook
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280. benirica
8:39 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
ryang i realize its very south, below 10, but it seems to be gaining latitude... although i understand it has to go pretty north of west to avoid hitting South America
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279. benirica
8:37 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
then i have a tropical question... is it good or bad for systems that the ITCZ moves more to the north? if it moves to the north wont systems just be attached to it and not taken into consideration as an individual system? like this wave or blob at 50W
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278. ryang
4:36 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 4:32 PM AST on July 18, 2007.

hey is that wave over at 50W worth watching? Ive been looking at it and it actually seems to me like its a bit of something. The environment around it isnt perfect but its definitely somewhat better than it has been for other waves weve looked at so far.
Any thoughts? Is it even a wave, I cant seem to even see it on the discussion and youd think its worth noting...


To far south!!
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277. pottery2
4:34 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Benirica. The trop disscussion has it as part of the ITCZ.
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276. groundman
8:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
JoshNHurricanes, nice website, I did the poll and others should do it so not everyone knows what I think since I am the first voter on all the questions but one, also the only voter?? LOL

Seriously, good work, I like the synopsis on the first page.
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275. benirica
8:27 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
hey is that wave over at 50W worth watching? Ive been looking at it and it actually seems to me like its a bit of something. The environment around it isnt perfect but its definitely somewhat better than it has been for other waves weve looked at so far.
Any thoughts? Is it even a wave, I cant seem to even see it on the discussion and youd think its worth noting...
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274. ryang
4:29 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Well... The wave is moving rapidly... are i would hve gotten more...
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273. pottery2
4:28 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Heh, evacuastion can sometimes be painful.................
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271. pottery2
4:27 PM AST on July 18, 2007
I thought you would have gotten more !!
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270. ryang
4:26 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Pottery, I nearly evaccuated...LOL
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269. ryang
4:23 PM AST on July 18, 2007
Hello Pottery, lightening(And thunder) around 6:00, and an inch of rain.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.