Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007

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There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

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369. Alec
6:41 PM EDT on July 18, 2007
Sorry to hear that Charley04......I went through Charley's eyewall in Polk county with devastating winds.....I also reside in Riverview too when Im on break from college...
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368. Wishcasterboy
10:41 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Well, Survivior, you don't have anything to worry about right now.
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367. scwindsaloft
10:40 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Charley...welcome! Did you jump out of the kettle and into the fire? LOL
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364. charley04survivor
10:38 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I am a first time poster. I wanted to come here and check out the tropics. I lived through Charley in Punta Gorda. Lost everything, and moved to Riverview, FL which is just east of downtown Tampa.
363. Wishcasterboy
10:36 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 10:34 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

wish would you like to go to stormchat? i am on there now.


Not really, why?
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362. Wishcasterboy
10:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
We looked at that one as it came of of Afica and it had a ton of convection with great circulation. The circulation has stayed but it has no convection. It appears to be moving WSW and into the ITCZ. Do these type disturbances generally pick-up or merge with the ITCZ and become an invest?

Sometimes, but conditions don't look good enough for that to happen.
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361. scwindsaloft
10:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
texas...you are prob right. Maybe I'm just getting a little excited. :}
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360. benirica
10:32 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
it still seems as though Trop Wave at 50W is trying to spin and consolidate its thunderstorms around that new spin its got.
i am well aware it is very south and to have any chance to develop it will have to take a pretty sharp wNNNNNw turn, or else its go into South America.
lets see... as of now it looks to be going WNW, can that N factor be enough? unlikely but possible
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358. CJ5
10:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 10:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
I wouldn't worry about the wave near 15n 60W. Max mayfeild says it isn't doing much and looks very disorganized.
My personal interest is that wave associated with a low pressure center.


We looked at that one as it came of of Afica and it had a ton of convection with great circulation. The circulation has stayed but it has no convection. It appears to be moving WSW and into the ITCZ. Do these type disturbances generally pick-up or merge with the ITCZ and become an invest?
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356. Wishcasterboy
10:31 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
There's a lot of dust behind that wave though. I think the dust is going to get pulled off with the wave over AF.
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352. scwindsaloft
10:29 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
This blob over land may have a chance. Lots of moisture and absence of SAL.

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351. CJ5
10:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: amazinwxman at 10:02 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
I think it's so funny that wx channel, accuweather, Dr. M, and several other weather sites for tracking tropical weather are all in agreement saying there's nothing of interest.... ...

The difference is this is a blog where the posters are interested in tropical weather. The "Professionals" by design cannot point out every single blob and discuss the why's and why nots with the public. They give thier best forecasts and move on but keep watching. I myself prefer to watch and learn and talk about "blobs". If there are those like yourself that do not like that or think it is useless then you are better off just reading the "professionals" Tropical Outlooks and go do something you enjoy. No disrespect intended.
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350. Wishcasterboy
10:27 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I don't see much hope for 50w 10n unless it moves farther north.
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348. sporteguy03
10:24 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Keep an eye on 50W 10N overnight
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347. Wishcasterboy
10:22 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Quite the beast I would agree. I think we'll see the season really kick off when that ridge builds in.
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346. KYhomeboy
10:23 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Has any one seen the new 'Atlantic Wide View' on the NHC satellite page?! Cool!!!!
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345. hurricane23
18:18 EDT le 18 juillet 2007
This is incredible what the GFS is showing...Big time ridge.

SEE HERE

The jet stream is all the way in canadian border lol.
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344. Wishcasterboy
10:12 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Thanks Canecaster. I'll check into that.

As for TD 10, I remember that its leftovers merged with a wave coming from the south over Cuba. Katrina sure did form in an interesting way.

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343. Drakoen
10:16 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
he didn't say much about that one. I wouldn't worry about it.
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342. sporteguy03
10:13 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Drak what about 50W 10N?
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341. CJ5
9:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
MLC,
At 23W;13N is that broad low we've been watching. No kind of orginization...just broad cyclonic turning in the stratocumulus deck.


Additionally, its moving WSW as it was over land and looked very nice around 18N/10W. It looked like the one to watch then, just a skeleton now.
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340. StormJunkie
10:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hey tcc, good to see you. Everyone doing well? Been pretty busy myself. Finally had some time to get on yesterday and today.
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339. sporteguy03
10:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Stormw,
Is that area near 10 50 too far South I don't think it is, if its spinning wouldn't that take it a bit more North
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5262
338. StormJunkie
10:04 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
THanks SW ☺

Afternoon amazin'
I agree with mlc, that is one of the things that makes weather so interesting and somewhat aggravating to all of us. When Katrina was the remains of TD 10 many on here were still watching it even though the NHC and everyone was saying it was dead. Obviously it was not quite gone. Most of the time the experts are right, but sometimes they are not and that is why it makes it interesting to watch and analyze most anything that is out there.
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337. moonlightcowboy
10:10 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
StormW, go back and look at the spin at about 23w, not 33w where the broad low is. This is something totally different.

...on the drive home now, bbl.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
335. Drakoen
10:10 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I wouldn't worry about the wave near 15n 60W. Max mayfeild says it isn't doing much and looks very disorganized.
My personal interest is that wave associated with a low pressure center.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30117
334. amazinwxman
10:06 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
let me revise what I said and eat maybe a slice or half of one of crow/humble pie because I do visit very frequently StormW's blog and Ryang(sp?) blog on this site but that's it besides Dr. M's of course.
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332. Wishcasterboy
10:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
No.
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329. moonlightcowboy
10:02 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: amazinwxman at 10:02 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
I think it's so funny that wx channel, accuweather, Dr. M, and several other weather sites for tracking tropical weather are all in agreement saying there's nothing of....


...lol, that's what makes it interesting and fun!!!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
326. amazinwxman
9:52 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
I think it's so funny that wx channel, accuweather, Dr. M, and several other weather sites for tracking tropical weather are all in agreement saying there's nothing of interest in the atlantic at all at this time and thats when people in this blog start watching every single blob and ones that haven't even come off of Africa yet saying "Oh I see organization" and " It looks impressive to me" and things like that and then in the end the blobs don't develope at all just like Dr. M said in the begining when alot of you are " Respectfully disagreeing with Dr. M" yet you come to his blog to get his input and get his insight and see what he has to say because he knows a heck of a lot more then most of us if not all. I just had to vent and get this off my chest so now I feel better and the ones that are guilty can now go back and watch every blob or rainshower that pops up across the ATL and waves that haven't even come off of Africa yet with your if this or if that.
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325. moonlightcowboy
9:59 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 9:57 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
MLC,
At 23W;13N is that broad low we've been watching. No kind of orginization...just broad cyclonic turning in the stratocumulus deck.


StormW, I think that broad low is at about 33w. Look near 23w, almost due south of the Verdes.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29596
323. stoormfury
9:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
yesterday i made a comment about an area which was at 5N 38W ia now at 10N 50W. I was rediculed and that i needed to educate my self a little more. i was even asked to have aome more cups of coffee . tonight i notice that all eyer are on this system. it just goed to dhow thst no man id an island amd there are persons who are educated on this blog
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321. JupiterFL
9:53 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
The one thing I would say about the CMC this time is that at least the other models show the same wave moving into the same area. While the CMC takes it to an extreme with the storm hitting NE, the others are not as aggressive. I would look for that wave to move E of the Bahamas and we will see if it develops. It will be interesting to see if the other models deepen it a little on the next runs.
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320. Wishcasterboy
9:55 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
Hello ladies, gentlemen, and lads.

Hereís my take on the tropics. The low level circulation that came off of Africa has become a ghost, with most of its shallow convection far to the south of the center of circulation. Factor in that the low is taking in lots of dry air and heading into an area of high shear, I think it is safe to say this one is dead in then water. And as for that cute little bugger 50w, all I can say is itís too far south.

There is a tropical wave over Mexico heading for Texas, but it is over land. The only wave I see with any remote chance of developing is the one passing through the Lesser Antilles. It is in a good area with little shear and fairly moist air. The problem is, it has no structure, and is heading towards a ULL. The last thing worth mentioning is a wave coming off of Africa. It is large with strong convection and has quite a spin to it. But it is also far enough north and strong enough to bring a lot of dust with it. The wave will most likely degenerate into a ghostly swirl like its predecessor upon coming off shore.
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319. stormybil
9:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2007
see the big one over africa if that holds when it comes off we really will be talking here
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.