Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk.


Figure 1. The eye of Typhoon Man-Yi showed pentagonal symmetry on July 12, 2007, when it was a Category 4 typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Kyushu island yesterday, striking as a Category 1 storm. The typhoon killed one and injured 56 in Japan, according to preliminary media reports. The typhoon should weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday as the combined effects of winds shear, cooler waters, and interaction with land take their toll. Some weather links for those following the typhoon:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters

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1136. 0741
9:18 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 152117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

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1135. MrNiceville
9:12 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Good points lopaka...

Nothing headed your way, perhaps, maybe, potentially

There's some lively debate going on about the last CMC run and the difference between 850mb vorticity and MSLP slices...

Most of us try to stay "out of the way" most of the time, but there have been some recent folks that have spouted off opinions in an alarmist manner without any supporting evidence, that's all...
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1134. tampahurricane
9:13 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
can someone post the modles thank you
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1133. Wishcasterboy
8:47 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
This is just a quick note on my own behalf.

I've noticed lately that very few tropical waves have formed during the season and most of them never lasted longer than a couple of days. Anything that did develop was subtropical and developed in the face of strong shear. I should note that the NHC only started naming subtropical storms as of recent.

Getting to the point, I believe this season bares many similarities to 04 and I find it to be quite fishy that the GFS would be forecasting the breakdown of the trough over the east coast around the same time that the 2004 season got underway with Alex. I'll tell you though, a couple days ago I was thinking this year was going to be another 06, but now, there seems to be cause for interest.

As for now, I find it unlikely that anything will develop until late July. Then, if the trough breaks down and that high builds in, shear would drop and this could be a tense season.
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1132. eye
9:10 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
the fizzle had nothing to do the SAL and everything to do with the wave moved S into the ITCZ.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1131. lopaka001
5:10 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
Hello all I am Robert aka lopaka!
I have to admit I never would have thought I see flaming on a weather blog..
Normally I just lurk and don't post here because I don't want to get into any flame wars on a weather blog!
When it comes to weather I am noob myself even tho the US Airforce forced me to take classes because I was a Flight Engineer.
I joined this site because I live in Hurricane Alley (South Florida).
The eye of Katrina and Wilma went right over my house and I am still repairing damages cause by Wilma $27,000 dollars worth and still counting..

Being a Admin myself I like to add my 2 cents worth about some comments made here by some of you..
I see it is very important to some of you how long you been a member here and for those members who haven't been here as long are consider noobs..
As a Admin I can tell you this is bad thing to do, because it segregates the whole board or blog in this matter..
Not only are you segregating the blog but you are setting the standards of us versus them mentality and this can cause problems with members especially those who have alot to share, but refrain from posting and would rather be lifetime lurkers to avoid such issues.
Yes I guess I am a noob too on this blog, but not in life.13 years of flying in the Airforce I have seen things that most people will never see in their lifetime.

I like to say thanks to all of you who are sharing your info and the great links I find myself digging and wanting to explore more..
I am still lost here about why as a lifetime Floridian I need to pack and leave..
Is there some Doomsday Cat 5 Hurricane heading our way I don't know about?
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1130. MrNiceville
9:06 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Pat-

Looks like your Wx is trying to work our way. We could use the precip for our aquifers, but surface is pooling at this point. Hopefully, it'll die down to light showers by the time it gets here 2nite...
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1129. RL3AO
4:02 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
It looks like it won't hold together long enough to affect Hawaii. Good news.
1128. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:54 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
Meanwhile.... from "under the wave" so to speak

St. Thomas
- formula for rain works again -

* From: "Jane Higgins"
* Date: Sun, 15 Jul 2007 15:20:03 -0400

After topping off the pool, transferring water from one cistern to the other, and filling the clothesline with clean white clothes....
the rain came! Early this morning several nice rain showers brought us about an inch in the (wine) rain bucket. We needed this
rain, and looks like plenty more is coming our way.
...
Right now the weather station on our deck says 29.26 barometer,
87 degrees, and 68% humidity. That 68% is LOW compared to the %'s in the last few weeks near 80% humidity.
...
Please continue to over prepare for storm season, just to make sure we don't have one....kind of like the clothesline mojo!
Link
CRS
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1127. nolasoci
8:51 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
So what happened to the wave that CMC was forecasting to go into the gulf??? It seems its gone now. Is there anything else out there???
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1126. Buhdog
8:35 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
This place will be crazy trying to get info from this year.
:(
unintentional comedey....plenty of it.
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1124. stormybil
8:49 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
that wave thats aproching pr today our local news said it would bring rain also to se fla soon too .
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1123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:45 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
nice and quiet now
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1122. MississippiWx
8:44 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
You guys are a trip...

By the way, eye. I was expecting the Central Atlantic wave to persist yesterday while you called for it to fizzle. Nice call. I underestimated the strength of the SAL in the area...much stronger than I thought. However, there is a broad circulation in the area! ;-)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1121. eye
8:39 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
I LIKE IT WHEN PEOPLE TYPE IN ALL CAPS, MAKES THEIR STATEMENT SEEM SO IMPORTANT...I ADDED BOLD TO MINE
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:27 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
no thats and actual fact that even the experts are calling no dev for the next week to 10 days
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1119. wederwatcher555
8:24 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
NO TROPICAL DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 14 DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE ODD DISORGANIZE WAVES FROM TIME TO TIME

That is the opposite of wishcasting
1118. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:21 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
NO TROPICAL DEVELOPEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 14 DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE ODD DISORGANIZE WAVES FROM TIME TO TIME
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1117. StormHype
8:16 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Wow... RandomMichael's name really suits him. He posts mostly random thoughts!
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1116. sporteguy03
8:10 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 7:42 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

I'll just watch the NHC and TWC and forget about this place. There are too many people here who get their panties in a wad over everything.


Posted By: randommichael at 7:38 PM GMT on July 15, 2007.

brazo, I am not starting to say anything. I know if I lived in S. Florida, I would go ahead and pack up and head to the airport. I'm not telling the masses to evacuate or anything.



You should always rely on the NHC for information, why would you want to leave South Florida? Thats crazy there is nothing even out there yet or watches or warnings, ok maybe some daytime t-storms but I rather be in a building then a plane in those, lol.
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1115. MrNiceville
8:10 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
LOL Bob...

You think that AQ has hijacked the CMC? We have discussed a possible drug addiction, but not subversive terrorist hacking...
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1114. StormHype
8:10 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Yeah, maybe the people with the gut feelings should lay off the Taco Bell and quit reading the National Enquirer.
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1113. bobw999
4:05 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
Like I said yesterday, people always predicting doom and gloom this year in their own back yard... on gut feelings

Must be a contagious disease.

Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the nation faces a heightened chance of an attack this summer. Link
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1112. eye
8:04 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
it was dry air that about choked 96 then the shear blew off its head
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
1111. StormHype
7:56 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
JoshNHurricanes says:
Yes, random, especially the west coast which is where i live in stpete. this year on the landfall probabilitys chart we are consider to be at the greatest risk and are called the bulls eye of the hurricane season. this year may finally be the year as many people say that our luck runs out aND WE GET HIT BY A MAJOR HURRICANE.

Randommicheal says:
Yup, I'm in Tampa...and I am hoping that our time isn't running out here too.

Now StormHype says:
Like I said yesterday, people always predicting doom and gloom this year in their own back yard... on gut feelings and imaginary blips in the models. Cut the fantasy, get out and enjoy life, and save your energy for when something real develops.
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1110. wederwatcher555
8:03 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
is it dry air or shear? wasnt everything except dry air favorable for 96L
1108. MrNiceville
7:58 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Man - they haven't reclaimed it yet, Pat? The way RM was talking, I figured Mr. Chertoff had already been down there to hook it to the back of his pickup to take it to south Fl...
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1107. IKE
2:57 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
Posted By: bobw999 at 2:55 PM CDT on July 15, 2007.
The blog is crazy today. But has there ever been a normal day?


No.
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1106. stormybil
7:54 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
still could possibly develop in the general area but we can't really say that something will develop

the fact is there is somthing there and the cmc timing is right so far

inthe area we were discussing and place so all im trying to say is that the cmc gets 2 points . remeber the other models didnt show anything in this area 2 days ago
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1104. wederwatcher555
7:56 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Just checking in. When will 97L develop? Anything on the radar screen?
1103. MrNiceville
7:56 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
ST - it's interesting, maybe, if it survives the shear - we might, possibly, potentially, perhaps get an invest out of it...
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1102. bobw999
3:52 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
The blog is crazy today. But has there ever been a normal day?
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1101. StormThug
2:50 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
that wave over the eastern carribean looks good classic v shape.any thoughts on it.
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1100. brazocane
7:44 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Good idea RM take this summer to learn some things and not type such ridiculous statements, then come back next year and maybe with some learning you come back and type some sensible statements. Try to look at it as being sent down to the minors, with no chance of making the bigs till next year. Have fun in your condo in Chicago, or hurricane proof house.
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1098. Alec
3:46 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
All I was getting at, is that people should have a heads up on those that just spout off TC scare tactics....It happens a lot on this blog....I recommend reading the individual blogs for good info(And the good Dr's entries themselves)......But we should all know that the official source should be the NHC and the NWS...

I just want to warn the lurkers and those that take most of this stuff to heart....
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1097. MrNiceville
7:45 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Sorry ST;

I knew, the minute that I posted it, that I should have not named names. I've been here almost 2 years.

To anyone that I left out - my apologies - no insult intended!
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1096. MississippiWx
7:46 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Hey, randommichael. You are welcome on my blog anytime. It's going to be an educational blog on the tropics and it's always open for CIVIL conversations. :-)

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
1095. IKE
2:47 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
newbies are worth as much as vets...but, talking about evacuating is a bit premature....
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1093. ladyweatherbug
7:43 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
RM - hope you have a nice flight!

Everyone else....have a lovely day - going to tend to the roast.
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1092. IKE
2:45 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
how long do u have too be on here too be considered a veteran?ibben on here a year and 2 months and a lurer since the start of theses blogs am i a vet.

Yup...you're a vet.
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1090. StormThug
2:38 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
Posted By: MrNiceville at 2:35 PM CDT on July 15, 2007.

Mike;

You're entitled to your opinion. However, you classified yourself as a newbie earlier in the week. Please leave the emphatic statements (the ones that sound like they're based on fact) to the veterans that are proven to be accurate (Like, Drak, Eye, StormW, Ike, Pat, etc...)


how long do u have too be on here too be considered a veteran?ibben on here a year and 2 months and a lurer since the start of theses blogs am i a vet.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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