Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk.


Figure 1. The eye of Typhoon Man-Yi showed pentagonal symmetry on July 12, 2007, when it was a Category 4 typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Kyushu island yesterday, striking as a Category 1 storm. The typhoon killed one and injured 56 in Japan, according to preliminary media reports. The typhoon should weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday as the combined effects of winds shear, cooler waters, and interaction with land take their toll. Some weather links for those following the typhoon:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 436 - 386

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

436. eye
9:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Drak, looks like the wave is the dark red the rest is ITCZ.....that would cut down the size fast...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
435. 0741
9:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
but have notice that nhc have not pick on it for past 24 hour their would have some thing going form soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
434. Drakoen
9:31 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
433. weathersp
5:31 PM EDT on July 14, 2007
Hey all whats going on..

Fill me in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
432. Drakoen
9:28 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
0741 they said the same thing untill 96L was formed...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
431. Drakoen
9:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: eye at 9:26 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Drak, i see you are beginning to think the same way....


Yes...I know that some of the convection is associated with the ITCZ so tonight we will see what is wave and what is ITCZ lol...or should i say what isn't ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
430. 0741
9:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 142108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

their not worry about that wave so we wont see 97l from that it might likely going weaken soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
429. eye
9:26 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Drak, i see you are beginning to think the same way....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
428. swlaaggie
4:24 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
The CMC, although one of my favorites very early in the season, seems completely, utterly and totally lost lately. Anyone know why this may be the case?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
427. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:24 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
TD EP0705

12 HRS - 35 knots - small window for TS status
24 HRS - 30 knots
48 HRS - 30 knots



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
426. Drakoen
9:23 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
eye we have to wait and see. Tonight we will see what is the wave and what convection is associated with the ITCZ. also the Quicksat of this area should be out in a few hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
425. eye
9:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
it has begun rapidly dying down(maybe the flare up in diurnal min should of been a hint?)....Sunday this will be scattered storms on around the ITCZ with no origanzed blob....maybe the wave coming over in a few days will do something....this particular blob doesnt look as impressive as it did this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
424. iggie97
9:22 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
taz....did you forget the 20-30 knots of shear in between????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
423. Tazmanian
2:18 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
wind shear is vary low all the way up to the gulf where it gets lower

lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422. Drakoen
9:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Tommorrow the NHC comes out with their Graphical outlook...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
421. RL3AO
4:14 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
05E remains a depression.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
420. Drakoen
9:16 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
tonight we will know what is the wave and what convection is associated with the ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
419. Drakoen
9:16 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
iggie97 the anticyclone can take care of the shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
418. iggie97
9:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
there is a good amount of convection out there, but until the shear in the central atlantic eases up, anything which forms in the east will be ripped apart within a couple days as it moves west/northwest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
417. Drakoen
9:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Taz those buoy aren't near the wave. The pressure drop is probably because of the diurnal phase.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
416. IKE
4:14 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
TAZ...pressures usually fall in the afternoon. That's normal.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
415. Tazmanian
2:08 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
this is where are wave is at
41040

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 F

41101

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.3 F

41100

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.8 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 89.4 F


looks like we may have a low at the sfc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
414. Drakoen
9:09 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Now you can see what i am talking about
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
413. Drakoen
9:07 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:07 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Drakoen could this move in to the GOM??


LoL. thats way far out.I don't think this is the area the CMC is picking up on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
412. C2News
5:07 PM EDT on July 14, 2007
NWS: Tornado Hits Mayport Naval Base





E-mail This Article
Printable Version
Make Us Home
RSS Web Feeds
FCN2go Mobile
FCNmail Newsletters


View-Submit Photos
Weather Plus Video

JACKSONVILLE, FL -- The National Weather Service says a tornado hit Mayport Saturday afternoon.

The NWS says the tornado was on the ground for several minutes at the military base and blew out windows from a three story barracks building.

Heavy equipment was also blown around, according to a military observer at the base.

A Navy employee standing watch on base saw tree limbs down and other debris scattered around. He also told First Coast News that witnesses reportedly saw a water spout in the same area.

A Mayport spokesperson says crews are out right now assessing the damage.

Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan spoke with the National Weatherh Service who rated the tornado as an F0 on the Fujita Scale, with wind speeds between 40 and 72 miles per hour.

The stormy weather also caused some problems for boaters. Jacksonville Fire & Rescue says a 21 foot boat overturned, sending two adults and two children in the water. The boaters have been rescued by another boat. JFRD Lt. Perry says the boaters are ok and will not require a trip to the hospital.

Two people have also been taken to the hospital after getting struck by lightning. JFRD says six people ran for cover from the rain under a pavilion when lightning hit the pavilion. The victims are in stable condition at Shands Jacksonville.

We have a crew on the way to Mayport to gather additional information on both of these developing stories. Watch First Coast News at 6 p.m. for the very latest information.

Created: 7/14/2007 2:54:16 PM
Updated: 7/14/2007 4:25:18 PM
Edited by Gary Detman, Nightside EP
2007 First Coast News. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, rewritten, or redistributed.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
411. Tazmanian
2:05 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
Drakoen could this move in to the GOM??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
409. Drakoen
9:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 9:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Thanks Drak for the post...I'm definietly going to check this one out...though I wouldn't plan on a full synopsis until Monday.

Thank you!! for all of you who were concerned about me.


No problem. Get better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
407. RL3AO
4:04 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
I figured Taz. That must be why the update is taking so long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
406. Drakoen
9:03 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
StormW, we want your meteorological view on this wave lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
405. nash28
9:02 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
The CMC is obviously the outlier right now, but I remember Barry and how it was the outlier then as well....

I certainly don't expect an in depth analysis right now StormW... Get better...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
404. Drakoen
9:03 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:02 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

ok where is this wave going??


Its moving to the west at 15mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
403. Tazmanian
2:02 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1800 UTC 11.1N 126.6W T1.5/1.5 06E -- East Pacific Ocean
14/1800 UTC 15.5N 115.3W T2.5/2.5 05E -- East Pacific Ocean


wow TD 5 E is now a TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
401. Drakoen
9:02 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
we are looking at:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
400. wederwatcher555
9:01 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Glad you're doing better StormW
399. nash28
9:01 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Well, we have the CMC spinning up a hurricane in the GOMEX. We also have the large wave in the EATL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
398. Tazmanian
2:00 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
ok where is this wave going??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
397. Drakoen
9:01 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Welcome back StormW. Do you see that wave we are looking at?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
396. RL3AO
4:00 PM CDT on July 14, 2007
They must only have 1 senior forecaster on duty because they updated TD-6E 20 minutes ago but still no update on TD-5E.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
393. louisianaweatherguy
8:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
The more I look at the wave in the E ATL, the more I see a circulation...

Watch out Gulf of Mexico in about a week...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
392. nash28
9:00 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
OMG!!!!!!!

I am glad you are back!!!!

Stroke?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
391. Tazmanian
1:59 PM PDT on July 14, 2007
: Drakoen can i have a link to that site thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
388. eye
8:58 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
My prediction, convection gets expanding W, this time Sunday there will be pockets of convection all along the ITCZ but no blob...many mini blobs....looks to me it has begun strinking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
387. nash28
8:58 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Not sure yet Taz. It might due to the shift in winds at the buoy nearby. We need another QuikScat pass or two to confirm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
386. Drakoen
8:58 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:58 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Drakoen so dos this wave have a low at the sfc??


From the Quicksat and the buoy wind shift it appears to have a SFC low. But we need officials to comfirm that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 436 - 386

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley
Big Sur Clouds