Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The believers vs. the non-believers.....LOL!

eye just stop this is a TROPICAL WEATHER BLOG to have FUN not for people like you to critacize everyone just because we think something will develop and you dont and are you a met NO neither are we this is just for fun

You think this will develop and eye thinks it won't. Seems like we are just having a discussion about a tropical wave.

Eye

LMAO

I didn't know you were one of the Righteous Brothers !!

i'm not getting offended it just seems that the discussion is going nowhere. That being said i refer to officials to information at this point.

yeah, hurricanehunter just wants to start something, I hate it when the lurkers come out like that....we were simply discussing the wave...go back to lurking unless you have something to add besides that...


reframing from using the word nash uses

Low/mid-level clouds within the ITCZ have reversed their normal east-west movement and are now moving west-east, wrapping towards the backside of the wave.

It should raise an eyebrow when a wave starts drawing moisture in from the ITCZ...

Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:21 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Low/mid-level clouds within the ITCZ have reversed their normal east-west movement and are now moving west-east, wrapping towards the backside of the wave.

It should raise an eyebrow when a wave starts drawing moisture in from the ITCZ

Thats what i am saying lol. oh well.

Posted By: Drakoen at 10:13 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.
all i am asking everyone do is to stop arguing. Just wait for the NHC to say something about the wave thats all.


But that is what we do best besides gripe, complain, b*&^%, and moan?? LOL Oh yes and wishcast westerly. LOL or westcast wishfully??

The 2 TD'S in the eastern pacific in my opinion are the result of the favorable MJO in the vicinity.I suspect the probability is there for something similar in the coming weeks across the atlantic.

or wishcasting LLCs

You can wishcast it or not wishcast it...it's gonna do what it's gonna do.

you mean NHC had NOTHING to say about the blob at 5pm EST? I wonder why..............

the new t.w is fighting too much dry air at this point. It will develop very slowly if at all. North of the Carrib. islands, the environment will be better. Whether it develops or not, it is defnitely leaving a more
moist environment behind it. These waves that
seem like they aren't doing anything are setting the environment up for whatever rolls
off africa in August-Sepetmber

Drak,

In my opinion there's an ill-defined area of low pressure near 11.5°N, 30°W.

The whole region has broad cyclonic turning, but there seems to be a center that was visible in the early afternoon images. It became visible during the 15z-18z timeframe. If one looks very closely at that area they would notice the low level cumulus-type signature clouds circulating.

Again, a quikSCAT pass will have the final say, for now. But this wave carrys with it the best chance for an East Atlantic development.

With Drak imaginative LLC, it kinda resembles the lest invest, doesnt have a top

The MJO is now on the positive side in the atlantic but i think those waves are still a tad south and still attached to the ITCZ and most of the other paramaters still are not in place for a tropical cyclone to flurish.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Ivansurvivor, the dry air isnt the issue at all with this system

right; plenty of moisture.

Ivan,

Yes, there is dry air in the vicinity, but it's not so much a system can't overcome.

There's definately enough moisture around to maintain convection.

Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Drak,

In my opinion there's an ill-defined area of low pressure near 11.5°N, 30°W.

The whole region has broad cyclonic turning, but there seems to be a center that was visible in the early afternoon images. It became visible during the 15z-18z timeframe. If one looks very closely at that area they would notice the low level cumulus-type signature clouds circulating.

Again, a quikSCAT pass will have the final say, for now. But this wave carrys with it the best chance for an East Atlantic development.


Yes i saw it when it came out but it seems to have gotten some clouds over it now.

OK, I'll ask the dumb question since I'm such an expert @ asking dumb questions, how do you "see" and LLC. Radar, visible, water vapor, all three combined with the little wind barbs that are on some maps??

I see roatation or actually I see clouds coming down from the NE N and NW toward the actual "blob" on radar and the blob looks to be blowing up like a baloon?? The "blob" that's between 30W and 35W right now.

I am a vet


sprays Troll Spray

there, much better

Should have been an LLC, not and LLC, I was giggling over the Righteous brothers.

IMHO, there is no rotation to pick out

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.
groundman there is no radar out there lol


anyway the visible shot is usually the best at picking out rotation


Duhhhhhhhh, sorry, I meant Infrared, which in my pea brain is the same, pretty colors. LOL

Look at this 850mb Vorticity. there is something there.

If you want to see it better you can go here
Link

If there is a llc, it's in the low (grey) clouds just west of the convection. It's still
a little early for cape verde activity. This
one has done better than anything coming off
Africa so far. The pieces of the puzzle that make or brake the season are almost in place. It won't be long till the first one pops. Then (just like 04) everything that
has a chance to develop will.

In case you didn't know Vorticity is the measure of the spin of an air mass such as such as low or high pressure. When you are looking at the 850mb you are looking to seeif there is some spin at the lower levels.

Posted By: Drakoen at 10:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.
In case you didn't know Vorticity is the measure of the spin of an air mass such as such as low or high pressure. When you are looking at the 850mb you are looking to seeif there is some spin at the lower levels.


So if you look @ the 750 mb vorticity is it @ higher levels or lower?? What about 950mb as long as I'm asking idiot questions??

so this wave has all the right condition as of right now, so what would make it not deveople, and is the cmc still forecasting a storm of s.FL?

There is no 950mb vorticity map. 750mb is further up in the atmosphere. 850mb is closer to the surface than 750mb

This is going to kill you guys but quikscat only caught the far eastern end of the wave and the next swath will miss the rest !

we need to see what it looks like Sunday night or even Monday night before we jump on development...also, the convection is warming now.....so there might not be much of it left come Sunday night.

lol Kman. oh well. What that i see? 30kts winds ??

30 knots but all from the S based on what I can see

rain contaminated 30kt winds

The rain contaminated vectors are black. There are a few red 30 knot vectors evident

Posted By: Drakoen at 10:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.
There is no 950mb vorticity map. 750mb is further up in the atmosphere. 850mb is closer to the surface than 750mb

Thanks, there is a 950mb vorticity on gfs on this page? Link and a 925 on cmc and mm5fsu and ukm? I checked before I asked cuz I thought there was, or is that just because they are experimental? I just use this page for models unless I go to the spaghetti models for stuff that is an invest.

right now seems like a good time to get a bath, so i don't get into this. BBL.