Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

Share this Blog
3
+

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk.


Figure 1. The eye of Typhoon Man-Yi showed pentagonal symmetry on July 12, 2007, when it was a Category 4 typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Kyushu island yesterday, striking as a Category 1 storm. The typhoon killed one and injured 56 in Japan, according to preliminary media reports. The typhoon should weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday as the combined effects of winds shear, cooler waters, and interaction with land take their toll. Some weather links for those following the typhoon:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 986 - 936

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

986. StormJunkie
6:00 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Yes, I know IKE, I was really laughing...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
985. Alec
1:59 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
you in big trouble man!!!!!!LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
984. weatherguy03
1:59 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
Becareful what you report in Defuniak!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
983. StormHype
5:55 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
I don't see any models showing anything in the gulf as far as any genesis. Don't forget the precip shown in the models can just be seabreeze t-storms cranking off the west coast of FL, which is supposed to finally resume this week. *sometimes* a big cluster of these storms can linger offshore long enough to start a surface low but that is kinda rare. I wouldn't expect anything in the gulf for the rest of July.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
982. IKE
12:58 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
They do...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
981. weatherguy03
1:58 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
I am watching you IKE!!!:))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
980. StormJunkie
5:57 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
lol Ike ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
978. Alec
1:56 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
the stuff on here IS amusing IKE.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
977. lowerbamagirl
5:48 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
crs:
Thanks for the link to catastropheadjuster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
976. IKE
12:50 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
randommichael...those other 2 models show moisture only in the GOM...of course, I've seen the GFS show moisture only when a tropical storm was there.

And another thing...be careful what you say on here...there are some who head to other blogs and report what is being discussed on here. Amusing!!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
975. StormJunkie
5:52 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
From trying to help folks learn while in the process of learning 03?

Let's just hope nothing spins up this side of that shear barrier 03
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
973. Alec
1:51 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
"something" could also mean a cirrus field for that matter....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
972. MrNiceville
5:36 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Mike;

They give you a hard time if you have pictures, warranty and receipts! To the insurance companies (particularly in FL), it's a game of "how long will it take to wear them down?"

If you can get an adjuster out to look at your damaged property (a small feat), then they will try to tell you that it's water damage from the rain/surge and not covered by your wind policy. If you're smart enough to have flood insurance, then you spend egregious amounts of time talking to both and keeping both actively working the claim (time which you do not get reimbursed for).

I am very jaded by the whole scam called home insurance - my sister, parents and many friends (including some here on the blog) have lost millions to these scam artists.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
971. weatherguy03
1:50 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
Yes tropical moisture. It is July. Look Here I drew a diagram for you.

Oh boy, I feel like SJ now!!..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
970. StormHype
5:48 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Having a video of the inventory of your home is more for you own use to make it easier for you to remember all the stuff you lost if a disaster occurs. I think if you ever had to sue an insurance company (like many folk did during Katrina) a video would help your evidence... even more so if you get video of the tornado destroying your house before the storm surge takes it out. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
968. Alec
1:47 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
randommichael.....only the CMC model hints of something....the other models dont show any sort of a well developed system...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
967. StormJunkie
5:47 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
No problem 03, anytime ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
966. weatherguy03
1:46 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
Thanks for the insight SJ!..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
965. StormJunkie
5:43 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Afternoon all ☺

Good to see ya Buhdog!

rm, anything could happen, but anything that will happen is pretty much wait and see right now. No well defined areas, no solid model support for a closed system, along with some of the inhibitors that are in different areas...All this leads to wait and see...

See y'all later ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
964. weatherguy03
1:44 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
Yeah the GFS shows a tropical wave. Yippie!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
963. eye
5:43 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
i predict there will be a thunderstorm somewhere in the Gulf......also, predict that at least 3 boats are there right now.....and someone is fishing.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
962. weatherguy03
1:43 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
That is a BIG stretch. The only model that shows alittle bit of development is the CMC. The others do not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
960. eye
5:40 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
random, you are stretching it...moisture does not equal a developed system
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
958. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:37 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
random 1:33 PM EDT
...now 3 models are trying to show something in the Gulf

Huh?
CRS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
957. eye
5:36 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
yup
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
955. eye
5:30 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
i am bored

so fellow bloggers


find me the coldest SST report and the hotest SST report at present time anywhere on earth.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
954. WeatherfanPR
5:25 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Famous Puerto Ricans:Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
953. PensacolaDoug
5:25 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Please no encore!

Thankyou thankyou!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
952. PensacolaDoug
5:23 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Heres my song....


I'm a blob watcher
I'm a blob watcher
Watching blobs go by..
Oh my my
I'm a blob watcher
I'm a blob watcher
Here comes one now....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
951. WeatherfanPR
5:23 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Want to know about Puerto Rico?

follow this link:Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
950. Buhdog
4:57 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
I could cook spaghetti in my backyard. The Gulf is 92 degrees in mid-july! The other night even the bugs were just layin around sayin " Man it's hot!"

I don't care about much else....it is that heat potential I have learned about here that scares me. We can all handle a hurricane of 1 or 2 size.... done it. . We could use some good rain in our waters to cool of the waters as opposed to bacwards flow. (inland rain)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
949. eye
5:21 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
the death of the wave....lets revisit...RIP...*plays song*

the blob has lost its LLC feeling, ohhhhh that LLC feeling....its lost that LLC feeling...that is gone gone gone....ohhhhhh
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
947. MrNiceville
5:07 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Well, the CMC found another crack pipe. It still maintains two storms in the GOM, but where it put them up through LA in the 00Z run, it now pushes the first storm into TX around Port OConnor. It now wants to extend the high pressure ridge further west in the GOM rather than pulling east as it did in the earlier run...

Crack Dreams
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
946. eye
5:13 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
just in case you missed it

PR

Puerto Rico!
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
945. IKE
12:09 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
LOL..PR is Puerto Rico....

The Alice in Wonderland, CMC, develops that GOM low (1004 mb's), from the wave in the islands.

12Z CMC..Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
944. StormThug
12:06 PM CDT on July 15, 2007
sammy he was talking too weatherfanpr
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
943. MrNiceville
5:05 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
Puerto Rico
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
940. IKE
11:57 AM CDT on July 15, 2007
And you're fixing to get a good soaking from it in PR...

"Rest of Today
Mostly cloudy late in the morning then becoming variably cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 93 lower elevations ranging to 84 higher elevations. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight
Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the evening...then occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Lows 80 lower elevations ranging to 67 higher elevations. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday
Cloudy with occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms in the morning...then variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the morning. Highs 93 lower elevations ranging to 83 higher elevations. East winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
939. WeatherfanPR
4:52 PM GMT on July 15, 2007
That wave over the islands its been enhanced by an upper lever low and doesn't have any close circulation, its a classic v shape wave with lots of showers and thunderstorms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
938. StormThug
11:53 AM CDT on July 15, 2007
that cmc still looks scary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
936. Alec
12:51 PM EDT on July 15, 2007
MrNice....you mean the BLACK HOLE......not rabbit hole....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 986 - 936

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
43 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron