Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. Note that the Canadian CMC model has been regularly forecasting formation of tropical storms this season that have not occurred, so I am not including this model as one of our "reliable" models.

The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal to above normal risk.


Figure 1. The eye of Typhoon Man-Yi showed pentagonal symmetry on July 12, 2007, when it was a Category 4 typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Kyushu island yesterday, striking as a Category 1 storm. The typhoon killed one and injured 56 in Japan, according to preliminary media reports. The typhoon should weaken to a tropical storm by Sunday as the combined effects of winds shear, cooler waters, and interaction with land take their toll. Some weather links for those following the typhoon:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Jeff Masters

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1436. philliesrock
2:42 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
new blog
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
1435. Patrap
2:39 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
TORNADO WARNING Biloxi ,Miss.....


633
WFUS54 KLIX 161425
TORLIX
MSC047-161500-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0024.070716T1425Z-070716T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
925 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...BILOXI...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 920 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR BILOXI...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ST. MARTIN BY 930 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3037 8907 3040 8888 3068 8887 3068 8904
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
1434. IKE
2:34 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 9:31 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
well i was worried it was going to rain here in PR today and i semi canceled a beach trip... but its turning out to be a pretty ok day so im going to go anyway....
so im off to the beach


Lucky!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1433. benirica
2:31 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
well i was worried it was going to rain here in PR today and i semi canceled a beach trip... but its turning out to be a pretty ok day so im going to go anyway....
so im off to the beach
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1432. benirica
2:29 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
lol super human kind of a guy, yet approachable and humble.
overall great man that Uncle Sam
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1431. benirica
2:29 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
lol super human kind of a guy, yet approachable and humble.
overall great man that Uncle Sam
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1429. Ivansvrivr
2:22 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
hey to all from Puerto Rico...
i see the CMC is still getting into daddy's "juice" cabinet. anything actually worth watching out in the waters?


Maybe at the beach.
1428. benirica
2:20 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
its about time those good-doers were taken off the streets... too many good deeds can corrupt anyone.
Ive heard its contagious
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1424. benirica
2:15 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
hey to all from Puerto Rico...
i see the CMC is still getting into daddy's "juice" cabinet. anything actually worth watching out in the waters?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
1423. Murko
2:04 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 1:54 PM GMT on July 16, 2007.

Hello, neighbor to the North...
CRS - on Provo


Hi from the REAL land of the free: Eleuthera, Bahamas!

M
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1422. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:56 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Morning all

As I said last Thur... I will go out my front door after noon and see if I can spot any CMC Vorticity...
CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6006
1421. CaicosRetiredSailor
1:54 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Posted By: Murko at 9:13 LOL, you guys should try living in the Bahamas
Hello, neighbor to the North...
CRS - on Provo
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6006
1420. stoormfury
1:51 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Good morning
It now appears that conditions in the eastern atlantic are improving for tropical storm development. wind shear has been relaxing between 5-10 knots ,with an area of 20 knots close to the island chain. the SAL is also weakening together with increase moisture. as well as the MJO on the upward trend. One would expect an increase in tropical activity during the next two weeks.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674
1419. fireflymom
1:32 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Impressive Ike thanks for the link. Looks like a wet day in La.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
1418. wunderwomen
1:32 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
omg!!
1417. PensacolaDoug
1:29 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
You wanna talk about the perversity of people here?
Ok then..

What was that? Oh........... Diversitiy!....

Never mind.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
1416. Ivansvrivr
1:26 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
How does the Saharan Air Layer disappear over the Gulf and North America and the Caribbean, and magically re-appear in the Eastern Pacific?


The red on the map (I believe) indicates lack of moisture
content. The air offshore California is dry, and the
water is cool. As the SAL travels westward,the warm waters influence the air. Evaporation gradually moistens the air as it rides the easterly tradewinds. The Carribean/Gulf waters are downrighthot. Hotter water
speeds up the evaporation process. As the summer continues the water temps off Africa catch up so the
SAL becomes a little less of a factor.
1415. wunderwomen
1:25 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
o well you know me i gotta have my input on everything. I think it is my duty in life! lol haha j/k
1413. bobw999
1:16 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
LOL wunderwomen
I was talking about the diversity of people here.
1412. wunderwomen
1:16 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Desert my bad o and the hot one not the ones that are cold.* lol
1411. weathermanwannabe
1:15 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Need to stay on topic (but what the hay)...Yea, visited Vermont last year with the kids (Ben & Jerry's, etc.) and loved it over there. But is was Summer and I don't think I could take the brutal Winters up there. But, if I win the Lotto then bingo; winter home in North Florida and Summer home in Vermont!
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9045
1410. wunderwomen
1:14 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Posted By: bobw999 at 9:11 AM EDT on July 16, 2007.

South Florida is truly a melting pot. I would prefer living in Mass or Vermont.


I know im about to get out of here. I was standing outside maybe 30 seconds to a minute JUST STANDING and i was sweating like i had ran the mile in the dessert. whew!
1409. Murko
1:13 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
LOL, you guys should try living in the Bahamas for heat. It's been 90+ every day since March. At least we don't have the road rage, it's illegal not to drive without a beer!
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
1408. bobw999
1:11 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
South Florida is truly a melting pot. I would prefer living in Mass or Vermont.
1407. wunderwomen
1:09 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Sonoran-Chihuahuan

sounds like a chihuaha dog to me lol
hello everybody im back!
1406. Ivansvrivr
1:06 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Ike, I lived in Knoxville until I was 8, my
parents are from Nashville.

W.Wanabe is right. North Florida rules. It
has everything good about S. Florida plus
"Southern Hospitality". The southern Mason/Dixon line runs from Ft. Pierce to
Tampa. Go south of that and your'e back in the "North". I like "southern" living much
better.
1405. EdMahmoud
1:05 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
bobw999

My bad typing and bad image-fu made my question hard to understand. The CIMSS SAL image implies Saharan air in the East Pac, and I'd say that would more correctly be called "The Sonoran Air Layer", or the "Sonoran-Chihuahuan Air Layer".
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1404. bobw999
1:05 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
I think I heard something about why SAL shows up in the EPAC. I can't remember the full details but they said something that its not actually dust.
1403. EdMahmoud
1:03 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Preview
Is
My
Pal

Please work!
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1402. bobw999
1:02 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
How does the Saharan Air Layer disappear over the Gulf and North America and the Caribbean, and magically re-appear in the eastern Atlantic?

Well the SAL comes from Africa (hence Saharan) and I'm assuming as it moves over the waters the SAL dies down.
1401. EdMahmoud
1:01 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Deleted for bad HTML-Fu
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1400. EdMahmoud
1:00 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
How does the Saharan Air Layer disappear over the Gulf and North America and the Caribbean, and magically re-appear in the Eastern Pacific?

Pacific SAL

(Comment edited for numerous mistakes)
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1399. Ihateflorida
12:58 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
groundman--I have 5, count them, five bad attitude black snakes that live right around my house. They guard the front door, the back door, the side door, garage door and pool door. when you try to shoo them away from the door so you can get into the house they stand on theyr tail and hiss at you. So to try to deal with them I have named the. I have Boston Blackie, Lord & Lady Hissssster, Sir Pent, Snakely Whiplash.

Oh well, back to the tropics.
1398. IKE
12:55 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 7:51 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
But (sorry Ike), I really like North Florida (here now 7 years) compared to South Florida (after having lived there ll my life)....Between the population growth/hurricanes/muggy weather year round/traffic/rudeness/road rage/insurance rates/auto insurance (I could go on), I could never live down there again.....


I couldn't live down there either.

North Florida is okay...one more buzzsaw storm and I may head north.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1397. reelbull
12:55 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Speaking of wild Florida, I fished the western edge of the Gulf Stream east of Port Canaveral yesterday. The surface temp was 89 degrees; nothing but barcuda around..once in port there was a tornado to the right as the cruise ships exited. Don't forget the torurist in the multi million dollar boat with few cents in how to navigate..cutting offf the Mariner of the Seas who sounded the emergency alarm...and all the while the winds were increasing and incredible lightning speared down near the deep blue purple whatever squall line....that's action...fishing still was lousy tho...
1396. Ivansvrivr
12:53 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Ivan - once something like that is noticed, approximately how long does it take before we see a US landfall? Are there any conditions that might likely squelch development?

All that means is the Cape Verde season is
starting. It is still quite early for anything
coming off Africa. It would have to fight
shear, sahara dust, & an upper low north of
Puerto Rico . I really don't expect much off Africa until August. The early activity prepares the environment for the ones to
really worry about in August and September.
1395. groundman
12:52 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Posted By: Ihateflorida at 12:42 PM GMT on July 16, 2007.
Bob--yeah well we moved here in April of 04--moved out of the house into a rental in Sept. of 04 moved back in in April of 05. That in itself makes for a bad feeling besides it being HOT forever and having lots of snakes. I HATE SNAKES too!!!!!!


I have seen two snakes in a year and a half in MS by the coast. One was a huge snake under a chunk of concrete from a house we were demolishing and the other was in the street drain outside after a big rain, was trapped, I threatened to feed him, garter snake. I work raking up after tree crews and house demos sometimes in between errands etc. and I SHOULD see snakes I would think logically?

I HATE snakes too, the lack of them is a really NEAT part of being where a hurricane was??
1394. Ihateflorida
12:52 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Well thanks guys, I don't feel so alone anymore. My husband LOVES the heat and LOVES Florida so I guess I am stuck here for a bit. I am getting a three week vacation to Scotland this August for our 30th anniversary and I am sooooooo looking forward to that (highs right now in the low 60's over there). Gotta go now fight back the snakes and melt into a puddle doing the yard work. Thanks again for all the fine information on the tropics and what to watch for.
1393. weathermanwannabe
12:51 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
But (sorry Ike), I really like North Florida (here now 7 years) compared to South Florida (after having lived there ll my life)....Between the population growth/hurricanes/muggy weather year round/traffic/rudeness/road rage/insurance rates/auto insurance (I could go on), I could never live down there again.....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9045
1392. IKE
12:50 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
I understand...been here all my life, except for a year or 2 in Knoxville,TN. I'd rather live up there!

Look at the blowup in the gulf of Mexico...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1391. bobw999
12:49 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
One Frances, Two Jeanne, Three Wilma, For Sale......
1390. bobw999
12:47 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
The roads are so crowded, I can't understand half the people that live here (I don't speak Spanish), and its too dang hot.
1389. IKE
12:45 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Heck...I have snakes that show up on my back porch...by the washer/dryer..and about a month ago I had a squirrel IN MY COMMODE! ALIVE!

Imagine getting up at 5 in the morning...going to relieve yourself and a squirrel is bathing in your commode.

I live in Florida too....the summers are waaay too long. Insurance on your house is a joke....too many hurricanes...one more big one and I may leave.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1388. Ihateflorida
12:42 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Bob--yeah well we moved here in April of 04--moved out of the house into a rental in Sept. of 04 moved back in in April of 05. That in itself makes for a bad feeling besides it being HOT forever and having lots of snakes. I HATE SNAKES too!!!!!!
1387. IKE
12:42 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
And nothing(yawn), is good!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1386. IKE
12:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2007
Posted By: MississippiWx at 7:32 AM CDT on July 16, 2007.
Hey guys...

Just updated my blog on my expectation of what Dr. Masters will have in his bi-monthly outlook.


He'll say no development for the next week...the pattern looks like it might change to what he had mentioned in this blog...which, is debatable, looking at the GFS model.

Translated in plain English...*yawn*.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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