Major steering current shift; Typhoon Man-Yi wallops Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. However, there is there a major development to report--it appears likely that a major shift in the weather pattern will occur in late July across the Northern Hemisphere. If the GFS model is correct, the trough of low pressure that has been consistently in place over the Eastern U.S. will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure (Figure 1). This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal risk. The GFS model has been inconsistent in its prediction of the timing of this shift, but has been persistent enough about it that I'm forecasting a 70% likelihood of this major pattern shift occurring by the end of July. Such a shift would bring the western U.S. some relief from the current heat wave, and bring high heat and air pollution problems to the Midwest and East Coast. How long such a shift might last is impossible to predict--it could last for a week, or could remain in place for the remainder of hurricane season. I'll have an updated forecast on this pattern shift Monday, when I issue my bi-weekly hurricane outlook.



Figure 1. Observed 500 mb heights at 00 GMT today (top), and forecast height in two weeks' time from the GFS model(bottom). The white lines in these plots show how close to the surface a pressure of 500 millibars (mb) is found. When there is low pressure aloft, due to a trough of low pressure, the height at which a pressure of 500 millibars is found moves closer to the surface, and one sees a "U" shaped area of 500 mb height lines. We can see a trough over the Eastern U.S. in the top plot. When a ridge of high pressure occurs aloft, the height at which a pressure of 500 millibars is found moves higher up in the atmosphere, away from the surface, and one sees an upside-down "U" shape to the height lines. A ridge of high pressure is apparent over the Eastern U.S. in the bottom plot. This ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be accompanied by an extension of the Bermuda High to the west over the the U.S., which will act to block recurvature of hurricanes.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Okinawa Island this morning, striking as a super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Naha, Okinawa recorded sustained winds of 76 mph with gusts to 105 mph (Figure 1), and a pressure of 939 mb. This was very close the the minimum pressure estimated by satellite, 937 mb. Media reports indicate substantial damage occurred on Okinawa, and over 100,000 people lost power. Twelve crew members of a Chinese ship were missing after the vessel sank some 600 km northwest of Guam in strong winds and high seas. Man-Yi is expected to make landfall on the Japanese island of Kyushu Saturday. However, the storm should weaken to a Category 1 storm by landfall, as wind shear from an approaching trough of low pressure has already reached 20 knots on the west side of the storm, and is expected to increase further. Some links for those following the storm:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Current conditions in Japan:
Kagoshima, southern Japan
Miyazaki, southern Japan
Tanegashima, southern Japan


Figure 2. Wind trace from Okinawa airport during Typhoon Man-Yi. Note the shift in wind direction as the eye passed over, and sharp drop in wind speed at this time.

Jeff Masters

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922. msphar
3:40 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Hurricaniac, plz don't agitate. The inmates are watching, and it won't be pretty.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
921. catastropheadjuster
2:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
MrPerfect: I see you said something about the Dolphins back when we lived in Tampa,Fla my dad loved the dolphins and watched every game. My Uncle Sonny was good friends with Don Shula and I have 2 Footballs signed 1 by Don Shula and 1 from Bob Greisy. I have them put up there i think there about 32 yrs old. I just thought I would add this little tid bit. Sorry off the subject back to weather. Sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3678
918. StormJunkie
2:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
New blog is up.

Really off to get hair cut now...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
917. sporteguy03
2:32 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Does Environment Canada think highly of the CMC model? I wonder why it sees something the other models don't?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5362
916. MisterPerfect
2:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I got Barometer Bob to admit being a die-hard Dolphins fan on his blog the other day..lol
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
915. MisterPerfect
2:26 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
link Dr. M do it!
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
914. streamtracker
2:25 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I'm listening to Jeff Masters on NPR. He's talking about the NHC.

Mostly making the points he made here, but for a much wider audience.

I'm sure you'll be able link to his interview.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
913. MisterPerfect
2:24 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I don;t know about that Random Mike...


I feel a 1998 or 1999 Florida year...
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
912. streamtracker
2:24 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I'm listening to Jeff Masters on NPR. He's talking about the NHC.

Mostly making the points he made here, but for a much wider audience.

I'm sure you'll be able link to his interview.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 1731
910. MisterPerfect
2:22 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I'm closest to the Cocowalk Cam so are you bro
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
909. Drakoen
2:22 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Hello everyone. I see the CMC 0z still wants a hurricane in Florida lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30577
908. hurricane23
2:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Try the link again misterperfect i fixed it.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
907. MisterPerfect
2:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
jumping out of perfectly good planes

Point break reference...where's my Reagan mask..

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
906. nash28
2:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I agree 23, except for one storm.... Barry. It was the only major model to handle the formation and strength of that one very well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
905. MisterPerfect
2:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
where is that Adrian?
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
904. StormJunkie
2:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Thanks MP ☺

I know, kind of stupid. But then some get there kicks jumping out of perfectly good planes, bungee jumping, mountain biking, etc...I try to be a safe as I can, but when I went back and looked at this video, some of these strikes were closer then I would have liked. I do try to keep myself under good cover for the most part.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
903. hurricane23
2:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
More southflorida cams here on my site...

SEE HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
902. MisterPerfect
2:11 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Nice pics SJ!

That's dangerous photography
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
901. StormJunkie
2:10 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Morning all ☺

I see the CMC is still at it, but as 23 said there is not much other model support for it yet.

Added some lightning pics to my blog last night and hope to get more up on the website today depending on what the weather here does as we could have a stormy afternoon in some places.

Off to get the mop chopped, see y'all this afternoon
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
900. keywestdingding
2:09 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
so whats the time line of this storm that cmc is predicting
Member Since: March 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
899. MisterPerfect
1:59 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Miami Herald Tower Cam
July 14, 2007 9:55 am
Miami, Florida



What a Wunderful Day
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
897. hurricane23
1:56 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
That CMC track drawn is to south its a little futher north and closer to the florida keys.

Not much model support here and also keep in mind the CMC model has done poor so far this season on genesis.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
896. IKE
1:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I was just looking at that wave off of Africa...moving west...doesn't look bad.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
894. MisterPerfect
1:54 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I hear thunder in Miami..darnit...am I ever gonna get to play golf?
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
893. MisterPerfect
1:53 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Florida Panhandle is ready for the soakin'

Starting early in east texas...
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
892. IKE
1:51 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Look at all of those clouds in SE Texas and western LA just exploding...and it's moving east...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
891. nash28
1:47 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Gotta run for a bit.

BBL.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
890. melwerle
1:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
right back at ya, Nash.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
889. MisterPerfect
1:44 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Bring it on NASH...Florida needs it.
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
888. sporteguy03
1:44 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I sure miss StormW's input in this CMC Model Nash, he would have great analysis on this, I hope he is ok he is missed on here.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5362
887. MisterPerfect
1:44 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Crist signs orders for greener Florida
Cheered on by fellow Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, Gov. Charlie Crist signed tough -- if general -- orders to combat global warming.

BY MARTIN MERZER
MiamiHerald.com

The silver-haired governor of Florida stood arm-in-arm Friday with the silver-screen governor of California, joked about being recast in Twins, and then -- as the cameras rolled -- signed a groundbreaking set of environmental protection orders.

Gov. Charlie Crist described the mandates as a framework for a new, more future-friendly way of living and conducting business in Florida.

''State government is leading by example,'' he said. ``It is the right thing to do.''

It also is a popular thing to do. Symbolizing the new star power of environmentalism, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger joined Crist at the signing ceremony after delivering a variation of his trademark line:

'We have to say `Hasta la vista, baby' to greenhouse gases.''

Among the components of Crist's plan, long on goals though short on specifics:

Tough new pollution standards for automobiles; a strong regulatory push for solar and wind energy; state vehicles powered by biofuel -- all contributing to sharply reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 2017, with deeper cuts by 2025 and even more by 2050.

Friday's action propelled the state -- and Crist -- into the forefront of a new, still evolving but already politically popular struggle with global warming.

Schwarzenegger insisted that the effort represented more than a lot of hot air.

''We have our work cut out for us, and there is no time to waste,'' Schwarzenegger told 600 people at the conclusion of the two-day Florida Summit on Climate Change sponsored by Crist at the InterContinental Miami hotel. ``You are on your way.''

About an hour later, Crist signed three orders:

Many, but not all, state operations will be required to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases by 10 percent in 2012, 25 percent by 2017 and 40 percent by 2025.

New state buildings and rented offices must be ''energy efficient'' and include solar panels where possible. State vehicles must be ''fuel efficient'' and use ethanol and biodiesel fuels when available.

Exempted from the requirements, though ''encouraged'' to embrace them: the Legislature, university system, Cabinet agencies and several state departments.

Power companies must reduce emissions to 2000 levels by 2017, to 1990 levels by 2025 and to 80 percent of the 1990 levels by 2050.

State regulators must demand that utilities use wind, solar or other renewable sources to produce 20 percent of their power by 2020.

Florida will adopt California's motor vehicle emission standards, including a 22 percent reduction by 2012 and a 30 percent reduction by 2016. Those standards are being challenged in court.

Asked if he favored a return to annual inspections for Florida vehicles, a widely unpopular program that ended years ago, Crist said he preferred to pressure automakers into improving engines.

BEARING THE COST

No costs were detailed or even discussed, but most seemed likely to be borne by private industry, though they could be passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices and rates.

The varied forces at the conference -- activists, utility and other corporate officials, lobbyists, entrepreneurs -- largely lauded the effort and its goals. But they expressed awareness that the true test will come as specific plans are mapped to meet the general targets.

Challenges include technological limitations, financial constraints and competition from developing -- and less environmentally sensitive -- nations in Asia and elsewhere.

Michael Williams, a spokesman for Florida Power & Light, said his company already is recognized within the industry as a ''clean'' utility but is eager to move forward -- in ways to be determined.

'The governor has set the bar very high, and now we all have to go back and say, `OK, how do we get there?' '' Williams said.

Schwarzenegger said he has learned that some business interests might try to derail efforts to reduce pollution, even those sponsored by Republicans, who had been viewed as more sympathetic to business than Democrats.

As an example of what he faced, he mentioned a campaign in Michigan that accuses him of harming the auto industry.

'They have billboards that say, `Arnold to Michigan: Drop dead,' but that's not what I'm saying,'' Schwarzenegger told the crowd. 'What I'm saying is, `Arnold to Michigan: Get off your butts.' ''

He said Crist was joining him as a Republican governor who is ''defying conventional wisdom'' by adopting a program that could be seen as harmful to business and the economy.

''But we won't have an economy if we destroy our environment,'' Schwarzenegger said.

In addition, the Bush Administration has blocked progress at every turn, he said, compelling a growing number of governors to make an end run around Washington.

''They are not looking to Washington for leadership any more,'' Schwarzenegger said. ``They want to do their own thing.''

Finding a path through those minefields is essential, Crist and others said, especially for Florida.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

The nation's fourth most populous state, Florida ranks third in total energy consumption -- and is still gaining an average of 980 residents a day. In addition, 70 percent of its electricity is produced by fossil fuels, which pollute the atmosphere with carbon emissions.

''State government is the largest single enterprise within Florida,'' Crist said. ``It makes sense for us to lead by example, and over the course of this summit, we will begin that leadership.''

He and supporters said that by the end of the two-day conference, little doubt remained that an important corner had been turned -- not only for the state but for the nation.

''What happens in Florida does not stay in Florida,'' said Larry Schweiger, chief executive officer of the National Wildlife Federation. ``Florida is now in the eye of a great storm.''
Total Recall!!
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
886. nash28
1:43 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
SHHHHHH MP!!!

Don't wake her.....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
885. MisterPerfect
1:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Come on Tropics...we've seen worse...give us a soakin!!

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
884. MisterPerfect
1:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 1:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Posted By: MisterPerfect at 8:17 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
Florida Panhandle rain maybe?

Yup...more rain. Fire ban lifted in Walton County.


Water restictions are slowly being lifted...
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
883. nash28
1:41 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Mel- You have mail.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
882. melwerle
1:40 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
He said he had been feeling dizzy for a few days - not feeling well.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
881. nash28
1:39 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I might....

Hang on, let me see if I can find it.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
880. IKE
1:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 8:38 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
Surgery? I don't remember that...


You're right. He didn't mention that. I remember now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
879. nash28
1:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Surgery? I don't remember that...
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
878. melwerle
1:37 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
He's unlisted to boot. Guess we're just gonna have to wait and see. Nash - do you have his regular email address? I was cleaning up my mailbox and deleted all the tropical updates.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
877. IKE
1:37 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Wasn't he having some type surgery? I remember him posting on it?

The Bahamas has an increased chance of rain next Tuesday/Wednesday...3 to 4 days out.


"Tuesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. High: 86 F. Wind ESE 11 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Tuesday Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. Low: 78 F. Wind ESE 13 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. High: 86 F. Wind ESE 11 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. Low: 78 F. Wind ESE 11 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
876. ryang
1:36 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Morning Everyone...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
875. nash28
1:34 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
I don't Mel. We had been discussing about dinner and drinks after work soon, since he lives pretty close by.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
874. nash28
1:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Sorry, bad choice of words with "eye".

:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
873. nash28
1:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
Let's see if the CMC stays consistent. If it does for the next two days, then we have something to keep an eye on..
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
872. melwerle
1:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2007
anyone have his phone number? Last time we spoke on the cell I was in Tampa (about 5 months ago) and I didn't store the number in my cell...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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