Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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1588. hurricane23
9:38 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Shot...

radar
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1587. FtWaltonBch2Tucson
6:35 PM MST on July 12, 2007
Floyd did something like that. Staying of shore. I don't think it did much wind of Flooding damage.

(wikipedia)



I know this was put up a long time ago, but I couldn't ignore it since I was under Floyd while he was still well over 100 mph crossing over Newport News, VA. He did a lot of flood damage. South East VA received upwards of 16 inches in 24 hours from him. I helped dig out Franklin (about 1/2 hours drive to the west of where I lived)- the flood waters damaged second stories right by the river. Even in Newport News, there were quite a few apartments where folks were evacuated by boat, and my normal parking spot in front of the house I was renting was under 4 feet of water. Thankfully the house had been built up with a crawl space beneath it, so while the water lapped at the top step it didn't come in.
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1586. Thunderstorm2
9:31 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
That is an amazing Okinawa Radar Dr. Masters has got.
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1585. tampahurricane
1:30 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
thank you.
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1584. amd
1:29 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
that's a great radar view of okinawa. It looks like the eye of Man-Yi may be in the process of the ERC, as the eye size has grown slightly. Also, on the last couple of frames, it looks like a wobble of the eye to the N or just east of north.

Okinawa has to be getting nailed with cat 4 winds at least.

Also, it looks like the eye went directly over a very small island south of Okinawa. I wonder if there was a pressure reading possible from that small island.
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1583. Drakoen
1:29 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
SAL/Dry air Loops

Link
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1582. Drakoen
1:28 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Posted By: hurricane91 at 1:27 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

which way is the area of disturbed weather over central america moving, does anyone know?


to the west.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1581. hurricane91
1:27 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
which way is the area of disturbed weather over central america moving, does anyone know?
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1580. tampahurricane
1:26 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
can you post thankyou.
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1579. Drakoen
1:24 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
The SAL is already starting to go down you can look at the SAL loops as well as the water vapor loops.
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1578. tampahurricane
1:22 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
do you expect it to go down
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1577. tampahurricane
1:19 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
thanks jeff
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1576. Drakoen
1:21 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Posted By: tampahurricane at 1:19 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

so when the map has red on it it is bad for development.


Yes
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1575. pottery2
9:18 PM AST on July 12, 2007
Dr, Masters has updated his blog
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1574. Drakoen
1:19 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Thanks Jeff. Oh and did you see the CMC forecast?
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1573. tampahurricane
1:18 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
so when the map has red on it it is bad for development.
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1572. JeffMasters (Admin)
9:18 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"

Jeff Masters
1571. Klockheed
1:18 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Just wanted to share this fantastic echo. Notice the rotation, the gust front and the beginning of tornadaic development in near Wakefield.

Radar
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1570. Drakoen
1:16 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Posted By: tampahurricane at 1:16 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

what is SAL


Saharan Air Layer Dust. It supresses convection.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1569. tampahurricane
1:15 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
what is SAL
Member Since: May 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
1568. BoyntonBeach
1:13 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
When is Dr. Masters going to update ?

Dr. Masters: July 11,8:22 EDT - There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week..
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1567. KoritheMan
8:13 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Maybe it's moving West??

If it were to move west, there may not be anything left of a wave this weak because of the mountainous terrain it would have to go over. Thus, I think their synopsis of favorable conditions in the East Pacific is either incorrect, or they meant Atlantic.

And Josh, Drak is right; don't go buy into a hurricane by Florida just yet. We need model cosensus, and we need to see what this wave will do by tommorow and days out before we make assumptions.
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1565. pottery2
9:05 PM AST on July 12, 2007
I'll have a rum, on that.
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1564. Drakoen
1:07 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 1:01 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

SO WHO THINKS THAT THE CMC COMPUTER MODEL IS RIGHT AND THINMKS THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE NEXT WEEK?!!!


Don't use caps. I need more model agreement before i buy into that. Especially that far out.
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1560. MississippiWx
12:55 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
The area currently over Central America could get interesting if it moves over water in the NW Caribbean. There is a noticeable cyclonic motion in that area of convection if you look at the visible.
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1559. lowerbamagirl
12:54 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Cat.Adj.

I am in Elberta...pretty much podunk, but about 4 miles from the gulf as the crow flies. Sorry so long to answer...internet problems. My hubby is a cat adj. What company are you with?

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1558. hurricane23
8:55 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:53 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:50 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 8:44 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Why does it require username and password to access?

The public has limited access to some of the floaters. MTSAT,METEOSAT-8 and METEOSAT-5 are not available to the public but the others ones are great.Did you check the imagery from ramsdis of the islands?

No which one is that? There are alot of links lol.

Ramsdis images from the caribbean and the islands
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1557. Drakoen
12:53 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Posted By: lowerbamagirl at 12:53 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Drak:

Thank you for the answer re: the system off al/fl coast. Lost my internet connection right after asking the question...certainly was not being rude! Again, thanks.


No problem.
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1556. Drakoen
12:53 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:50 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 8:44 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Why does it require username and password to access?

The public has limited access to some of the floaters. MTSAT,METEOSAT-8 and METEOSAT-5 are not available to the public but the others ones are great.Did you check the imagery from ramsdis of the islands?


No which one is that? There are alot of links lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1555. lowerbamagirl
12:52 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Drak:

Thank you for the answer re: the system off al/fl coast. Lost my internet connection right after asking the question...certainly was not being rude! Again, thanks.
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1554. BoyntonBeach
12:50 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
When is Dr. Masters going to update ?

Dr. Masters: July 11,8:22 EDT - There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week..
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1553. hurricane23
8:46 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:44 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

Why does it require username and password to access?

The public has limited access to some of the floaters. MTSAT,METEOSAT-8 and METEOSAT-5 are not available to the public but the others ones are great.Did you check the imagery from ramsdis of the islands?
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1552. Drakoen
12:49 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
May just be the clouds...
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1551. Miamiweather
12:48 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
hurricane you got mail
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1550. IKE
7:48 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:47 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
anyone notice some kind of twist around 42W 10N?


I did earlier with a visible loop.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1549. Drakoen
12:46 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
anyone notice some kind of twist around 42W 10N?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1547. Drakoen
12:42 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Why does it require username and password to access?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1546. Drakoen
12:41 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29927
1545. hurricane23
8:39 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Not a problem...

Here are 2 links i use.

1-Ramsdis Floaters

2-Close imagery from the carribean and the islands
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1544. Drakoen
12:37 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Hurricane23 can you give me link for RAMSDIS site/images please?
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1543. IKE
7:36 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: leftovers at 7:36 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
Thanks for the rambis floater CV Looks to be slowly organizing possibly into a big system.


Can you or someone please link that for me? Thanx.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1542. Drakoen
12:35 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
the map basically shows where the MJO is. the MJO help to increase moisture and lower pressures. You notice that it is green over the CATL which means that the MJO is in that area which help to weaken SAL or clear out SAL.
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1540. Drakoen
12:32 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Posted By: pottery2 at 12:30 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Yeah, but every wave that comes off above 10 n , must also help to reduce the SAL. ??


Yes somewhat.

Posted By: Anticyclone1 at 12:29 AM GMT on July 13, 2007.

I use this shot from CIMMS for the SAL and dry air. It shows the definite serious problem areas.

Scroll down to the mid-level WV shot.



Good point. The wave track movie of the SAL shows the SAL lifting somewhat and weakening as it doesn so. Possibly related to the MJO.


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1539. StormJunkie
12:32 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Drak, can you explain that 200hpa map and what it should mean?
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1538. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:31 AM GMT on July 13, 2007
Current Observation from Naha, Okinawa

9am JST
Temp 26.9C
Precip: 29.5mm
Wind Direction SE
Wind speed: 25m/s
Humidity 91 percent
Barametric Pressure 941.5 hPa
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.