Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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88. msphar
2:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Kadena Air Base on Okinawa is pretty close to getting a direct head-on with Man YI. 12 miles off center late Thursday night, their time. Then it turns NE to batter the shores of Japan.
CAt 3 now, with waves to 31 feet, impressive already. How much bigger in the next day and half, hard to tell, the eye is huge.
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87. Jedkins
3:01 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wow man-yi looks really impressive this morning, I'm disturbed.
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86. Drakoen
2:56 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
85. bobw999
10:56 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Please turn of italics
84. Drakoen
2:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
if it can stay near or within the ITCZ it may have a chance. Like 96L.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
83. Drakoen
2:53 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 2:48 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Hi Drak,

I will watch to see if it gains any latitude over the next 12 hrs. It is still daylight out there so night time cooling aound the same time frame will also be of interest

yes. I read StormW's (Met) blog. And he said this area could be what the CMC is point out. There is some weakness in the ridge that would allow it to move more to the WNW. away from the ITCZ.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
82. whirlwind
2:53 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
hey fellas,

Anyone find a link to wind shear and sst where Man Yi is? Just wanna compare that region to ours...
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81. hurricane23
10:50 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Things look closed for business from the islands to the capeverde region as SAL is everywere.
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80. CJ5
2:47 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Nice pic, Pat.
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79. kmanislander
2:45 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Hi Drak,

I will watch to see if it gains any latitude over the next 12 hrs. It is still daylight out there so night time cooling aound the same time frame will also be of interest
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78. Patrap
9:46 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
MisterPerfect posted this slideshow of the Shuttle rollout in his blog. The crawler can be seen returning in pic 3 here.

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
77. Drakoen
2:45 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
I need to see more models consistency but it does seem interesting.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
76. Patrap
9:43 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
The crawler transports The Stack to the PAd. When the crawler disengages and moves away. Its called the Stack is "Hard down"..NASA lingo.,leftover from Apollo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
75. FormerFloridian
10:41 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 10:39 AM EDT on July 11, 2007.
Good morning again!
New synopsis up on my blog. I invite those (and thank those who have already read) who wish to visit, to read my forecast and post comments if you'd like.

Thanks!

I'll be back later to answer any questions.

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS

great info. atleast your blog is worth reading, and not a bunch of overhyped nonsense.
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74. Drakoen
2:40 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Kman look liek whatever low is down there is at the wave axis. Interesting.
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73. Dodabear
10:38 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Pat,

What do you mean by "hard down?"
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71. kmanislander
2:37 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
QS pass

Link
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70. Gatorxgrrrl
2:35 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Good morning everyone. I have not lost confidence in the NHC one bit. They have the best researchers and scientist in the world.

With regard to the cyclone in the pacific, we have some fellow WU bloggers here that are living in Japan (military), and they are under threat from this storm. So lets keep them in our thoughts. Hopefully this cyclone will not progess beyond its current strength.
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69. physicseverywhere
2:33 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
As with some others, I use this web site for information, not to blog, but I had to register just to add one comment, well two. 1) If your non-hurricane oriented friends are like mine, they have no idea anything occurred at the NHC 2) I you haven't read The Caine Mutiny, I think everyone would enjoy it. If you have, go back and re-read the last part (or watch the movie). I think there are some lessons for all of us.
Now hopefully back to the weather.
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68. kmanislander
2:32 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
good morning all

The quikscat pass does show a low near 7N 33W but being that far S will likely impede any development unless it can gain some Lat. ( Decided to post link instead as resolution not great with image )
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67. Drakoen
2:32 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Th GFS shows something like that as well. A wave or weak system approaching the bahamas. Let see if the models show some consistency.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
66. Patrap
9:32 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
Endeavour Hard Down at the Launch Pad this morning after lasts night rollout, click to enlarge Link

The rollout was done during the overnight hours to avoid Possible afternoon Thunderstorms.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
65. Drakoen
2:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
The CMC is showing something interesting 120 hours out. Something to keep our eye out for.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
64. fire16
2:16 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Thank you Dr. Masters. Hopefully everyone will let the NHC do their job and be ready for tropical flare ups.
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63. eaglesrock
10:19 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Thanks Didereaux. I don't like it either.
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62. Didereaux
2:17 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
I am normally a lurker by nature, but to be honest I need to say this: ENOUGH of the office politics crap!

Thank you,
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61. hurricane23
10:18 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Eye begining to clear out...

eye
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60. Fl30258713
2:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
lots of dry air
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59. V26R
2:11 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Confidence in weather forecasting.....

isn't that a contridction in terms?
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58. FormerFloridian
10:00 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: yossel at 9:56 AM EDT on July 11, 2007.
Confidence will be restored when the staff returns to the task of weather predicting and ceases the constant bureaucratic wrangling in public fora.


Confidence in weather forecasting.....

now that is funny
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57. keywestdingding
2:01 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
hey does anyone know whats up with all this dry air. is this normal for this time of year. it just keeps coming and coming. i guess it has to do with the sal. todd
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56. eaglesrock
9:58 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
GFS Cape Verde storm in 2 weeks...then another one...sign of things to come?

gfs
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55. yossel
1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Confidence will be restored when the staff returns to the task of weather predicting and ceases the constant bureaucratic wrangling in public fora.
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54. IKE
8:53 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
Correction...8N,33W...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
53. CJ5
1:49 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Good morning, all.

It appears Man-Yi developed a defined eye over night and continues to strengthen. Very low pressue also, as observed.

Obviously, there is no much going on in the ATL and shear remains relatively high in most areas.

Man-Yi is the only game in town right now.

Posted By: therockhound at 1:02 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.
Dr. M, please move on to weather related items. Leave the politics for the politicians and do what you do best and that is weather system discussions. I am getting real tired of you devoting so much of your discussions to the NHC, please move on, Thank you


This goings on at the NHC is relevant to the weather topic. His blog, his subjects.
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52. IKE
8:51 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
I think that CMC system is the same system that is currently around 8N,35W. The GFS is also picking up on it....
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51. nash28
1:48 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Here is the link to the 850MB Vort.

Link
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50. catastropheadjuster
1:40 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Nash can u put up a link for the CMC? I would like to look at it. Thanks, Sheri
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49. V26R
1:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Just don't like it when they form near the
Bahamas, Those Bad Boys tend to run up the
coast, and we are Long Over Due up here
for a Blow
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48. jamnkats
1:35 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Last night we watched two turtles lay eggs on our beach. The kids were overjoyed but I can't wait to see their faces when the babies hatch. It's been windy the last week but thankfully, no signs of anything yet. We're trying to decide whether or not to put our sliding glass door in before or after hurricane season...
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47. hurricane23
9:38 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: V26R at 9:37 AM EDT on July 11, 2007.

How accurate has the CMC modeling been?
Know that 144 hours is a LONG time

Iam not expecting any development in the tropics through mid next week atleast as conditions are unfavorable for any significant development to take place.I think as we approach the end of july and into the early parts of august things could start to ramp up as it ususally does in a normal season.
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46. nash28
1:39 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
I know 144hrs is a long time, but since there has been literally nothing shown for a while now, it is something to keep an eye on. We are entering a more favorable environment for development.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
45. V26R
1:34 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
How accurate has the CMC modeling been?
Know that 144 hours is a LONG time
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44. newt3d
1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
You'll need more than red sauce to cover up the terrible taste of that giant squid! They'll probably taste like Windex as they contain large amounts of ammonia to help with bouyancy.
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43. hurricane23
9:31 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Hey nash...

Thats the problem its 144hrs out and when you go out that far the skill level of the model begins to drop of.But overall your right lets see if others models pick up on something developing.
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42. nash28
1:27 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Will see if any of the other models begin to show development there as well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
41. V26R
1:22 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Wow talk about a Calamari Dish!
Whos got the Red Sauce?
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40. nash28
1:21 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Looking at 850 Vort, it appears to be a wave from the ATL that develops near Bahamas.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
39. Tazmanian
6:17 AM PDT on July 11, 2007


CANBERRA (Reuters) - One of the largest giant squid ever found has washed up on a remote Australian beach, sparking a race against time by scientists to examine the rarely seen deep-ocean creature.

ADVERTISEMENT

The squid, the mantle or main body of which measured two-meters (6.5 feet) long, was found by a walker late on Tuesday on Ocean Beach, near Strahan, on the western coast of island state Tasmania.

"It's a whopper," Tasmanian Museum senior curator Genefor Walker-Smith told local media on Wednesday. "The main mantle is about one meter across and its total length is about eight meters."

Scientists would take samples from the creature, identified by state parks officials as an Architeuthis, which can grow to more than 10 meters (33 feet) in length and weigh more than 275 kilograms (606 pounds). The Tasmanian animal was 250 kg, Pemberton said.

The tentacles had been badly damaged, so the overall length of the animal could not be determined, a Tasmania Parks and Wildlife spokeswoman said. Park rangers had moved the remains from the water.

Giant squid, once believed to be mythical despite occasional sightings by mariners, feed on fish and other squid. Last year, fishermen off the Falkland Islands caught a complete animal measuring 8.62 meters.

Scientists believe giant squid usually live at ocean depths of between 200-700 meters (660-2,300 ft), relying in part on volleyball-sized eyes, the largest in the animal kingdom.
Scientists said giant squid gathered along Australia's continental shelf in cold mid-winter waters to feed on Grenadier fish. The squid were in turn hunted by sperm whales migrating north from the Southern Ocean.

Japanese ocean researchers captured the first ever pictures of a live giant squid in September 2004 off Japan's Ogasawara Islands at a depth of 900 meters

giant squid any one???


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38. V26R
1:19 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Nash is it coming in from the Atlantic or gonna form there?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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