Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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138. weathersp
4:23 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Man-Yi
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137. tampahurricane
4:18 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
rember the blob that came off the east coast yesterday it formed a low pressure but then it fell apart looked better than both the storms we have had this year.
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136. Drakoen
4:21 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
i see a slight spin with the wave now. If i wants to do something it should remain near or in the ITCZ then move to the WNW within time, as the ridge weakens somewhat.
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135. Drakoen
4:20 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 4:18 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 11:16 AM CDT on July 11, 2007.
According the the CMC it shouldn't do anything significant untill it gets to the northwest of the Lesser Antiless near the eastern most Bahamas. Shows something well defined.

Is that on the new 12Z run?



No. that is the 0z. The 12z run should come out 1-2 hours from now.
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134. Dodabear
12:00 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Wow!!!! Great video Pat. Thanks. Brings back a lot of memories. I proudly wear a P-3 5000 hour pin. I was the guy in the middle seat, flight engineer.
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133. benirica
4:16 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
yeah i hadnt taken a look at the cmc and gfs and its definately the same thing that they slightly pick up and id bet on what you guys think of it being the wave at 33W.
interesting to watch if the other models pick up on it as well
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
132. IKE
11:17 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:16 AM CDT on July 11, 2007.
According the the CMC it shouldn't do anything significant untill it gets to the northwest of the Lesser Antiless near the eastern most Bahamas. Shows something well defined.


Is that on the new 12Z run?
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131. Drakoen
4:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
According the the CMC it shouldn't do anything significant untill it gets to the northwest of the Lesser Antiless near the eastern most Bahamas. Shows something well defined.
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130. IKE
11:10 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 11:10 AM CDT on July 11, 2007.
is there any spinning in the 33W wave??


I see a slight one.
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129. Drakoen
4:10 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 4:10 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

is there any spinning in the 33W wave?? or is it just a bunch of scattered convection?


the QuickSAT Kman posted does show a low at the wave axis.
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128. StormJunkie
4:06 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Afternoon all ☺

But if it does amount to something IKE and I were the first to notice.

Actually, I think StormW called it out early this morning, not that it really matters, this is not king of blog...lol just giving y'all a hard time. :~)

Anywho, looks like it will be interesting to keep an eye on the models over the next few days. Anyone checked the phase evolution page yet? Got to get back to work.

Quick Links-
Find many great model and imagery link on one page.

See y'all this afternoon ☺
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127. IKE
11:09 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:07 AM CDT on July 11, 2007.
IKE wait for the 12z run... you need model consistency to believe anything is going to form.


I know...it may not mean anything then.
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126. benirica
4:08 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
is there any spinning in the 33W wave?? or is it just a bunch of scattered convection?
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125. Drakoen
4:06 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
IKE wait for the 12z run... you need model consistency to believe anything is going to form.
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124. sunshineandshowers
3:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
According to this: http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/search_name2.pl?ids=200402:200404:200406:200407:200413:200415:2 00416:200417:200418:200420:200421:200422:200423:200424:200427&lang=en&basin=wnp

15 storms passed near Okinawa in 2004!
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123. IKE
11:01 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: groundman at 11:00 AM CDT on July 11, 2007.
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 3:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.
How possible is it that the wave in the CATL will form to atleat TD3??

Considering only two models MAYBE pick it up and the latitude thing (it's too low) probably about 5%. But if it does amount to something IKE and I were the first to notice. LOL LOL LOL :-)


Do we get a tootsie roll?

The new GFS model run is coming out...it still shows the system heading in the general direction that the CMC had on it's 0Z run.
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122. Drakoen
4:01 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
>
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121. gthsii
3:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
[attempted to add the closing em tag...someone beat me to it]
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120. benirica
4:01 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
lol didnt think it was 13 monsters, but you know what i meant
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119. sunshineandshowers
3:59 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Well, not all 13 storms were Katrina's but it's still an incredible fact. I think about 4 of those 13 were direct hits too.
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117. groundman
3:56 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 3:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.
How possible is it that the wave in the CATL will form to atleat TD3??


Considering only two models MAYBE pick it up and the latitude thing (it's too low) probably about 5%. But if it does amount to something IKE and I were the first to notice. LOL LOL LOL :-)
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116. benirica
3:56 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wow that is impressive...
i dont think anyone over in the atlantic could ever be prepared for the type of seasons they have over there. it just took one Katrina to bring us to our knees, imagine 13
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115. benirica
3:56 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wow that is impressive...
i dont think anyone over in the atlantic could ever be prepared for the type of seasons they have over there. it just took one Katrina to bring us to our knees, imagine 13
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
114. benirica
3:56 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wow that is impressive...
i dont think anyone over in the atlantic could ever be prepared for the type of seasons they have over there. it just took one Katrina to bring us to our knees, imagine 13
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113. Thundercloud01221991
3:55 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wow 13 storms
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112. sunshineandshowers
3:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Okinawa will be prepared. In 2004 the island was in the path of 13 storms!!!
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111. benirica
3:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
didnt realize the island was so flat... i sure hope they get everyone out of these places
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110. Thundercloud01221991
3:48 PM GMT on July 11, 2007


Look at how flat most of the island is
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109. Drakoen
3:38 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Cat 2 hurricane can do serious damage especially in populated areas like Tokyo. Its gonna hit Okinawa at peak intensity. Considering that they are islands i hope everyone gets of them and into the mainland.
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108. quakeman55
3:38 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Oh okay it worked when it went to the next page. Somebody must have put in an open italics tag without closing it.
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107. quakeman55
3:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
lemme try something...

did this work?
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106. Patrap
10:35 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
I bet Dodabear did a few of these then..Link

Or maybe this..a better vid..

Link
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105. Drakoen
3:35 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
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104. benirica
3:33 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
I hope they are ready for it... they probably are, they are so used to these monsters.
Thankfully it looks like it will hit mainland Japan as a Cat 2... but its still going to bring chaos, plus those islands it hits as a Cat 4 and 3 are probably the spots it shouldnt hit, I imagine mainland Japan would be better set for a major storm.
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103. Dodabear
11:29 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Pat,

Thanks. The reason I ask is back in the day when I was flying P-3s, when a plane was "hard down," that was not a good thing. Usually the look from the maintenance chief when you told him the aircraft was "hard down" was enough to melt metal.
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102. whirlwind
3:32 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
shear



As you can see, shear is everywhere on the east and south of the storm. lots of it. but no shear north. calling for a cat 5 storm...
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101. Drakoen
3:32 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
All of Japan is in the cone of Error.
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100. bobw999
11:23 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
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99. Drakoen
3:19 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
The CMC shows the system developing before the 144 hour mark, but here is what the ends up with.The CMC has pretty much been with all the models untill now. Thats why i am interested. If i do remember the CMC picked up Barry first.

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98. hcubed
10:20 AM CDT on July 11, 2007
"Posted By: CycloneQld at 7:36 AM CDT on July 11, 2007.

Only a Category 2 storm?

Dvorak readings are reporting wind speeds nearing 100kts and a central pressure of 947mb.

That would place it as a definate Cat 3 already (indeed the pressure readings are getting close to levels for Cat 4), and this is still intensifying very rapidly..."

Don't forget, each basin has it's own way of identifying a storm, including it's category:

Scales

So it's possible that someone looked at the wrong scale somewhere...
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96. HurricaneGeek
11:17 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
Drakoen-I was just asking a question!!
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95. Drakoen
3:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 3:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

How possible is it that the wave in the CATL will form to atleat TD3??


who said that??? We were just discussing what the CMC was pciking up and what the GFS is hinting.
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94. Drakoen
3:13 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
The eye is practically cleared out now.
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93. HurricaneGeek
11:13 AM EDT on July 11, 2007
How possible is it that the wave in the CATL will form to atleat TD3??
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92. biff4ugo
2:53 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Based on the systems comming off of Africa, is it possible Venesuela might get hit this year?
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91. Thundercloud01221991
3:09 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Convection needs to build up over the NW side then the eye needs to get smaller then we can have some rapid intensification
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90. Drakoen
3:07 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
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89. sunshineandshowers
3:06 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
man-yi Vmax up to 112 knots

Pressure down to 931 already.
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88. msphar
2:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Kadena Air Base on Okinawa is pretty close to getting a direct head-on with Man YI. 12 miles off center late Thursday night, their time. Then it turns NE to batter the shores of Japan.
CAt 3 now, with waves to 31 feet, impressive already. How much bigger in the next day and half, hard to tell, the eye is huge.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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