Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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288. weathersp
7:20 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
It's a Buz Saw!

Man-Yi
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286. Fshhead
7:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
I personally think Man-Yi is already at cat 4 strength. When do they update over there???? I bet next update says cat 4!!Link
Look at all the whites forming around the eyewall now. Before only sw quadrent, now all around the eyewall!
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285. weathersp
7:17 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
STL you think the pressure will get to 868 or something like it with Man-Yi?
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284. Drakoen
7:16 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
eye wall cleared out. Convection continues to wrap around the COC.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
283. weatherboyfsu
7:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Good Afternoon,

Anyone seen any info on the two areas east of virginia.........I know that the NHC said it was in the mid levels.....The visible sat looks interesting............Oh I forgot If they are not potential for landfalls then we dont care.......
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282. hurricane91
7:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wow hot day in swfl, naples 95 with a heat index of 107
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281. franck
7:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
As Man-Yi approaches the land masses to its north and northwest, it can't draw moisture. This may cause it to lose it concentricity, and perhaps tear itself apart...maybe.
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279. weathermanwannabe
2:08 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
That Man-Yi is frightening to look at...While something like this will be inevitable for the US (that tight circle reminds me of Andrew but on a much larger scale), I hope it does not happen this season or in the near future.....
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277. weathersp
7:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Even thought it's IR I call it the "Nighttime Visible View".

Man-Yi
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276. Drakoen
7:12 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
908mb is very impressive.

That wave is very disorganize. The GFS does show a 1012 mb pressure reading in the 12z run we will have to wait and see what happens tonight. Also we need to see what the models say tonight.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
275. Tazmanian
7:09 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Drakoen dos that wave down there have a ch??
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274. bobw999
3:09 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
WOW TAZ!!! Every Dvorak update it gets stronger. I think it might be a super typhoon now.
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273. Tazmanian
7:04 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2007 Time : 173300 UTC
Lat : 19:47:37 N Lon : 129:51:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 908.9mb/132.2kt



6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +13.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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272. weathersp
7:05 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
yes, I before it didn't look so nice but now it looks like a real wave that could potentially be potent.
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271. Drakoen
7:07 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Taz that is not an updated image this is
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
270. Fshhead
7:04 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Woof, Man-Yi really getting it together, It looks like a strong 3 maybe already crossing cat 4 status. Check out this IR loop. Island of Japan better start hunkering down!!!!!
Link
Check out the whites around the southwestern eyewall!!!!
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268. Tazmanian
7:02 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
you can tell from looking at that

her we go now you can tell

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267. Drakoen
7:01 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
can anyone get a RAMSDIS image on the wave?
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266. drusierDMD
6:59 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
map

looks like a nice wave
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264. Drakoen
6:47 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:47 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 6:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Posted By: Altestic87 at 6:43 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

I wish man yi was in the atlantic hehe

Why???



so we have some in to talk about in the atlantic


LOL. sure it would be interesting but after its all said and done you are left with death and destruction. IE Katrina.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
263. Drakoen
6:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
this wind shear map illustrates the wind shear moving slighly northward. Also decrease Aournd South America and the Lesser Antilles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
262. Tazmanian
6:46 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 6:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Posted By: Altestic87 at 6:43 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

I wish man yi was in the atlantic hehe

Why???



so we have some in to talk about in the atlantic
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261. weatherblog
6:43 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Yes, Altestic87...I bet you wish it was in the atlantic...especially Man-Yi heading right towards you.
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260. Drakoen
6:44 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Altestic87 at 6:43 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

I wish man yi was in the atlantic hehe


Why???
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
259. weathersp
6:40 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Sunrise in about 3-4 Hours
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258. bobw999
2:43 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Why isn't Altestic band???
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255. Drakoen
6:41 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
It has been closing of the convection around the eye wall for the past few hours. I expect it to reach Super Typhoon strength.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
254. initforwaves
6:33 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wow taz that IR is scary, until the convection closes up on the NW side of the storm I don't think it will be a cat 5...
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253. Drakoen
6:37 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: msuwxman at 6:36 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Also noticed with some of the model runs that the shear will be lessening and lifting slightly northward.


Yes shear is moving slightly northward. but i would like to see shear escapte the Central Caribbean before we talk about development.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
252. Drakoen
6:36 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: A4Guy at 6:31 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Drak - you have mail


you have mail now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
251. msuwxman
6:35 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Also noticed with some of the model runs that the shear will be lessening and lifting slightly northward.
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250. A4Guy
6:29 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Drak - you have mail
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249. Altestic87
2:30 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Pin-hole eye? You mean like Isabel in 2003?
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248. Tazmanian
6:25 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Man-yi is going nuts
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247. Drakoen
6:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:20 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Man-yi has to be a cat 5 by now


maybe. The eye is shrinking and the pressure continues to drop. maybe Pin hole eye at peak intensity.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
246. bobw999
2:21 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
For Japans sake, lets hope that trough gets stronger.
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245. Tazmanian
6:19 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Man-yi has to be a cat 5 by now
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244. Drakoen
6:17 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Look at that area South of the Eyewall. That most be where those 130kt winds are. Japan right in the middle. Expected to get the worst of it at peak intensity.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
243. Drakoen
6:16 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 6:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Well drako has maximum potential energy as central pressures above 980 mb for me, so I'm not worried :)


Where do you live?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
241. Tazmanian
6:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007


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240. Caymanite
6:04 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Thanks for the heads-up Weathersp re fire. My wife is currently at the airport awaiting a flight to Detroit.Just spoke to her and she was watching the fire from her plane which was taxiing. It appears to be at the American Airlines traffic tower.
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239. Drakoen
6:09 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
July 19th should be interesting. A real good increase in moisture east of the Lesser Antilles.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
238. AshleyDillo
6:09 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Italics off??
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.