Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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388. Drakoen
8:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: RL3AO at 8:14 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

Comeon Man-yi. 30 more mb.


LOL. It is extremly impressive but i don't think its the next Tip. Alot of hurricanes we thought would be the next Tip.I don't think this is one of them.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
387. bobw999
4:15 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Check your blog nash.
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385. Drakoen
8:13 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Nash28 we have Super Typhoon Man-yi.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
384. RL3AO
3:13 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Comeon Man-yi. 30 more mb.
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383. StormHype
8:10 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
FL big bend doesn't need a direct hit to get messed up. Look what Dennis did to St. Marks. Any storm going into the panhandle west of this area floods it out big time with surge, because the gulf is so very shallow for miles offshore in that region.
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382. Drakoen
8:13 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
pressure at 899mb 140 kts. Very interesting.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
381. nash28
8:10 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Hey guys. Been a long day and no time for blogging (until now).

What's up?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
380. Tropicnerd13
8:10 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
wannabe, what if a katrina like storm came in but went to the east a little more? is that what they are saying would be the worst case scenario?
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379. Drakoen
8:11 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Super Typhoon Man-yi..

Tropicnerd yes that does mean that a major hurricane can be sustained in the Caribbean and GOMex.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
378. IKE
3:12 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Man-yi is a buzz-saw. Hopefully it weakens before reaching Japan.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
377. IKE
3:11 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Key West,Fl. extended weather...


"Monday through Wednesday...
models indicate that deep layer ridge re-establishes itself over
North Florida...bringing a deep and moist flow across the Keys. If
this pattern comes to fruition...the first part of next week will be
breezy and wet. However...the model position of the ridge is quite
a bit farther north than normal
...so will continue with climatology probability of precipitation
for at least this forecast cycle and adjust in future cycles if the
model trend continues
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
375. Tazmanian
8:10 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
its a cat 5 its a cat 5 its a cat 5



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2007 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 19:59:46 N Lon : 129:42:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 899.3mb/140.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.3 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +11.1C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696
374. Tropicnerd13
8:09 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
who ever was talking about the storm north east of bermuda, it looks like an extratropical storm. that thing by the carolinas looks good, too. my bets are still on that wave in the mid atlantic. isnt it a low already?
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373. weathermanwannabe
3:01 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
The Florida Big Bend (North of Tampa around to Appalachicola) has not had a "major" strike in the last 100 years as they all seem to "curve" over to Panana City Westward....Hope it does not happen anytime soon, but, it is of note that Tallahassee/Leon County emergency management sees a "worst case" scenario for this region as a storm crossing Florida from the East (Orlando to Gainesville)and curving up into the Big Bend as opposed to a direct hit over open water from the Gulf....Given the historical trends for the Big Bend, I would be watching any storms crossing Florida like the 2005 season.....
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372. Tropicnerd13
7:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
hi guys. that wave looks impressive. do those charts up there mean that a cat 4 and 5 hurricane CAN form and sustain itself easily in the gulf? as in the water is warm enough for their pressure to be that low? just a guess...
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371. IKE
3:04 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
The high returns over Florida next week. This from Tampa....

"Long term (fri night-wed)...an upper trough will be over the
eastern US with weak ridging across the southern half of the state
for Friday night through Sunday. The trough then lifts as an upper high
ridges across the area from the Atlantic through Wednesday. At the
surface...high pressure will continue to ridge across the central Florida
Peninsula through early Monday. The ridge axis will then lift north
of the area through Wednesday allowing east/southeast flow to return across the
area. Scattered late morning and afternoon storms will be possible
through Sunday. Then for Monday through Wednesday...timing will shift to more
afternoon and early evening storms with east/southeast flow in place. Temperatures
will continue near to just above climatology with lows in the middle-upper
70s and highs generally 90-95."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
370. Drakoen
8:04 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Taz the white area was greater a few hours ago compared to now. Still a very powerfully system, perhaps super typhoon strength.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
369. bobw999
4:05 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
368. Tazmanian
8:05 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
now thats what i call a small eye
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696
367. StormHype
7:58 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Strong high and weaker troughs. does this mean that the west coast of fl could see another charlie or wilma?


IMO, if similar situation to what we have now exists in august, we *could* see another 2004 scenario in FL. Compare the current SST anomoly pattern in gulf and west atlantic to that of around time frame august 12, 2004. Look familiar? That cool water off of east FL was related to bermuda high being farther SW than usual ... same now as it was during the 2004 august time frame.
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366. CJ5
7:52 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 7:49 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.
Look at about 8N, 35.2W on a visible loop of the central Atlantic.


I think you are right, IKE. It will have to do better for my old eyes to catch it lol
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
364. hurricane23
4:00 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: hurricane91 at 3:58 PM EDT on July 11, 2007. (hide)
Strong high and weaker troughs. does this mean that the west coast of fl could see another charlie or wilma?

This basically means the united states may not be as lucky as we were back in 06 with systems staying out to sea.No matter what if you live in a hurricane prone area you must be ready as the peak months of hurricane season are fast approaching.
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363. Tazmanian
8:02 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
look how small the eye is now



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362. Patrap
3:01 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
People need to react to the threat approaching.AS they are in Okinowa. To hesitate,..may leave you frustrated and on the road with many.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
361. Drakoen
8:00 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
I think we may see a 2004 year with wave coming of Africa moving to the WNW because of the high.
I expect more Land Falling storms in Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast states
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
360. Patrap
3:00 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Prepare as if Man-yi was bearing down on your local area.
Think about your planning in your head. Think about the approaching danger and how one will react.
Its a good drill.
Just 2 days till impact at Okinowa if the course and speed holds.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
359. IKE
3:00 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
WHOOPS!

Dr. Masters blog almost never needs to be bumped!LOL
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358. Drakoen
7:58 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
hurricane91 that scenario is possible.
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356. MisterPerfect
7:59 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Bump


whoops
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355. Drakoen
7:57 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
nice Patrap.
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354. hurricane91
7:52 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Strong high and weaker troughs. does this mean that the west coast of fl could see another charlie or wilma?
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353. StormHype
7:52 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
"Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist..."

Ok. So he's a good scientist and forecaster. Is he a good leader and manager? That is the real question to be concerned about, since that's what 99% of his role as NHC director will be. If he's too much in love with being a scientist, he'll end up being a micro-manager and another rebellion will follow. NHC needs good leadership versus good nerd. Plenty of nerds to do the grunt work already.
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352. Patrap
2:57 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
AFTER THE STORM



Mental Health

The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a “Major Disaster” for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster “second hand” through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.

SIGNS OF HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
351. Drakoen
7:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
In three days we should see dry air/SAL over the CATL. retreating somewhat when the MJO comes into play.
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349. Drakoen
7:51 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
randomichael i experience Wilma's eye wall. Living in South Florida we have to be prepared. Andrew, Wilma, Francis, Jeane...
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348. hurricane23
3:51 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Monster...

ddd
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347. Drakoen
7:50 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
July 19th we should see a great increase of moisture in the Eastern most Caribbean according to the MJO chart.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
346. IKE
2:49 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
I agree with both of you.

I've said this before...I'm ready. As long as I've got a car...a full tank of gas...I can jump in it and escape...just like I did for OPAL...and a few others....IVAN...DENNIS.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
345. Patrap
2:50 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
The MArine BAses will close the Gates and Hunker down.Beer shall flow .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
343. Patrap
2:43 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Having spent a Year in Okinowa from Sept 82 to Sept 83.I can say without hesitation that the Japanese have a excellent and well practiced Typhoon routine. The Island is an Atoll that rises rapidly once inland. The US Military has a well prepared and Orderly way of dealing with the conditions to come. It goes by Conditions. Condition 3, 2..1..and 1E for typhoon conditions.Its a very effective way of getting the orderly flow to batten down.All the Hi expense tactical Air-craft will.leave Kadena AFB to Points clear of the Approaching typhoon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
342. Drakoen
7:49 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: weathersp at 7:47 PM GMT on July 11, 2007.

RED = Not favorable for hurricanes right Drako
?

Correct and We will be in green for the next few weeks.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29883
341. IKE
2:46 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: CJ5 at 2:45 PM CDT on July 11, 2007.
Nice wave at 35W but I see no circulation right now at all.


Look at about 8N, 35.2W on a visible loop of the central Atlantic.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
340. Drakoen
7:47 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
IKE the "greater" area seems to be accurate. Florida and the gulf coast states.
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339. hurricane23
3:47 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 3:46 PM EDT on July 11, 2007.

I know some call them inaccuweather, but this chart seems almost believable....

Link

Yea IKE unfortunately i think joe maybe right on the money with this season.What ever happenes iam ready been ready since june1.
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338. Tazmanian
7:48 PM GMT on July 11, 2007
it is 7.0 all most there we are now at 6.9
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114696

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.