Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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588. hurricane23
8:46 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 8:37 PM EDT on July 11, 2007. (hide)
Many forget.or dont plain know that Andrew also struck Louisiana and claimed Lives here as well. So dont go throwing around like it was a single states Storm. It wasnt. Just as many storms take lives in Multiple States..as we saw in 05..and years past.Those of us with a Living memory..that goes back decades before Andrew, know that.

I was talking about my personal experience and yes i remember what andrew did through its lifetime.

Sometimes i feel like this blog is like competition to see how can we can bash each other and criticize one another on every level.As time has gone by ive learned its very hard to actually make friends and just talk about anything without someone making a rude comment or just being disrespectful.As far as myself ive always respected eveyone on this blog since day one and put 100 percent effort in trying to get along with everyone but that has become very hard.Adrian
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587. Patrap
7:45 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Never saw anything like you mention in 19days I was here after the storm. But I know it took YOUR govt 5 .5 days to FIND New Orleans..LOL. But we had it under control till the calvary arrived. We been here way longer as a city that DC. WE always have. LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
586. IKE
7:46 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
TAZ....you already had that article that had your SN mentioned...that's a lot to give up!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
585. pottery2
8:43 PM AST on July 11, 2007
Long Live TAZ.
RIP brother.
Will be missed !
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584. Patrap
7:42 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Your govt..You misinformed MP....hard to function a Govt in 10 ft of water that FEd Levees built with your money fails...get a grip.LOL.....Plus ..one can drive thru the Andrew impact zone in 30 minutes dude, LOng 3 Hours from Mobile to Houma. And an area devastated the size of Great Britian.

Your narrowmindess equals your banter .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
583. MisterPerfect
12:43 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Hey NHCDirector...


LOL


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582. pottery2
8:38 PM AST on July 11, 2007
Hey, Director.
Pleased to meet the new you.
Although I am a little confused..............
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581. Tropicnerd13
12:37 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
man yi looks like it has a wedding train to the south west of it.
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580. sporteguy03
12:40 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Taz,
Could you get banned with a screename like that though?
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579. NHCDirector
5:41 PM PDT on July 11, 2007
cool how dos evere one like my new ID i think evere one love it dont you
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578. MisterPerfect
12:38 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Did the gulf states pour out aid for Andrew victims? No. That's embarassing to our politicians....Our politicians in florida didn't have to ask us for aid to the Big Easy and her surrounding areas....WE KNOW. Since I can remember...over and over, 4 times visiting Nawlins in college and after...they talk of the big one comin'....well it did. To bad your government wasn't prepared. There were riots in Miami for weeks....cops and the such...its human attitude that turns a natural disaster a true disaster.
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577. IKE
7:38 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
you may call me NHC or you can call me Director

LOL OK.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
576. TayTay
12:38 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
You're gaining quite the ego, Taz. :D
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575. MisterPerfect
12:37 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
I know Pat. A strong guster hitting Florida spells doom for yall...its topgography!
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574. hurricane23
8:36 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
You figured what!!!

Dont worry about my personal life.
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573. NHCDirector
5:36 PM PDT on July 11, 2007
i want to start new i had that blog for a vary long time and i am now done with it so no long i will be call taz


you may call me NHC or you can call me Director


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572. Patrap
7:37 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Many forget.or dont plain know that Andrew also struck Louisiana and claimed Lives here as well. So dont go throwing around like it was a single states Storm. It wasnt. Just as many storms take lives in Multiple States..as we saw in 05..and years past.Those of us with a Living memory..that goes back decades before Andrew, know that.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
571. Patrap
7:36 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Carry on..and make sure to tune in tommorrow night you know where.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
570. MisterPerfect
12:31 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
One tires of folks claiming they know what occured HERE from the coziness of Miami. .. Balls in his court..Dude.

I know that wasn't directed toward me. And I'm not a shot taker Pat, at least not at you. Talking hurricanes to one who had his home mowed down by the ocean definetly desrves respect. However, just being real here, we would have died on the ocean in acraft during them...land is often foresaken. We can't control topography too well, and we're farther off controlling the weather. Your gripe with a hurricane artist is your battle. Please don;t think every Miamian is against you. Et al, I feel your pain....from the coziness of Miami....the hurricane capital of the United States
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569. Patrap
7:35 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
I figured as much
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
568. TayTay
12:34 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
You'll always be called Taz, though.
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567. hurricane23
8:30 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 8:29 PM EDT on July 11, 2007. (hide)
Upset..donrt censor me MP..youll never blog again..LOL. Im talking about 23 telling me KAtrina was a man made event here friemnd And I challenge Him to show me the pics from his 5 trips here since the storm. I ve yet to see a single entry on it from him. Or a single pic from his supposed trips here to my area. Put up or shut up,,my words .Dont get on yer high horse about 23 dude. Ill pull the archive and dare hime to show me a single day he was here. Period. One tires of folks claiming they know what occured HERE from the coziness of Miami. .. Balls in his court..Dude.

I told you enough with me looseing family members with katrina in new orleans.As i said before i dont have anything to prove to you or anyone on this blog and to be honest its hard to believe how you continue with this subject even though i told you it brings me back painful memories.
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566. bobw999
8:26 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Arough209ownage is Altestic87. GOOD LORD HE WONT GO!!!!! :(
565. IKE
7:33 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Why TAZ??????????
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
564. NHCDirector
5:32 PM PDT on July 11, 2007
LOL



its TAZ i have drop and lock my Taz blog that blog is done and i am nevere going back to it e
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563. sporteguy03
12:31 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: NHCDirector at 12:31 AM GMT on July 12, 2007.
hello all this is my new ID

Ed Rappaport?
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562. sporteguy03
12:29 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Hurricane23,
What do you notice on the pattern on the 18z GFS?

Make sure you say OMG because you always say that, j/k at least according to Altestic, lol.
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561. NHCDirector
5:30 PM PDT on July 11, 2007
hello all this is my new ID
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560. hurricane23
8:28 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 8:26 PM EDT on July 11, 2007. (hide)
I'm watching the Andrew videos on YouTube...wow.

Visit my youtube page and i have tons of hurricane footage sent to me from close friends on that page.
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559. Patrap
7:26 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Upset..dont censor me MP..youll never blog again..LOL. Im talking about 23 telling me Katrina was a man made event here friend And I challenge Him to show me the pics from his 5 trips here since the storm. I've yet to see a single entry on it from him. Or a single pic from his supposed trips here to my area. Put up or shut up,,my words.
Dont get on yer high horse about 23 dude. Ill pull the archive and dare him to show me a single day he was here. Period. One tires of folks claiming they know what occurred HERE from the coziness of Miami. .. Balls in his court..Dude.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
558. MisterPerfect
12:28 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
I'm watching the Andrew videos on YouTube...wow

no imagine 20 miles south in the wall...
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557. hurricane23
8:26 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
The wave east of the islands is holding some convection tonight but its going to have to fight one heck of a battle with the SAL surrounding it.
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556. MisterPerfect
12:27 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 12:26 AM GMT on July 12, 2007.

I'm watching the Andrew videos on YouTube...wow.


Yes, continue to blog with the 4am wind sound on high on your speakers...insane
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555. MisterPerfect
12:26 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Material things can be replaced but life cant be.

Patrap said the same thing earlier this morn. bless both of ya.
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554. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:09 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
good evening all hows everything good i hope i see still quiet in atlantic i been watchin man yi thats going to be perfect storm cat 4 soon after reaching that i beleive it will slowly start to wine down as it begins to get closer to japan
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
552. TayTay
12:24 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Dust might not impact a well organised storm as much, but poorly organised waves don't stand much of a chance.
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551. hurricane23
8:21 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 8:20 PM EDT on July 11, 2007. (hide)
You give me sustained winds like that on land and we're talkin Tent City

Misterperfect i still have some video footage sent to me by friends of the aftermath with andrew and the area of 312 and US1 was complete devastated with house after house in ruins.My house was one of those.Material things can be replaced but life cant be.
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550. sporteguy03
12:24 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Weatherboykris,
What pattern do you see on the new 18z GFS?
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549. MisterPerfect
12:24 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 12:21 AM GMT on July 12, 2007.

Lets stroll down memory lane ..


Not if its gonna upset anyone, sir
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548. weatherboykris
12:23 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Arough209ownage at 12:22 AM GMT on July 12, 2007.

i dont worry about dust it doesn't impact hurricanes that much


I can remember three more storms we woulda had last year if not for dust.
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546. weatherboykris
12:20 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
No,sporteguy,it was in a book I read several years ago.Can't recall the name,I think it was the one when that guy hangs out in South FLorida for the 99' season and monitors things at the NHC?Can't recall the name.
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545. Patrap
7:19 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Lets stroll down memory lane ..

Im still waiting for some stuff to magically appear, as some say things that just dig holes for them to fall into.

Dont they?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
544. hurricane23
8:19 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: weatherboykris at 8:18 PM EDT on July 11, 2007. (hide)
Evening adrian...18z GFS still shows that new pattern coming up.Interesting stuff,if it continues.

He kris....

Yea i just looked over the 18z thanks and yea looking forward to jeffs blog this coming monday.
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542. MisterPerfect
12:19 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
You give me sustained winds like that on land and we're talkin Tent City
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541. weatherboykris
12:20 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Powerful winds adrian.
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539. sporteguy03
12:18 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:16 AM GMT on July 12, 2007.
Good evening...

Watching this very powerful typhoon hopefully it does not hit land with this intensity cause if it did not much would be left.

937mb with winds at 115kts according to NRL.


Altestic,
I thought Hurricane 23 is a nay sayer about development??
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538. hurricane23
8:16 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
The national hurricane center recorded wind gusts in the range of 150-160 mph that morning.

The highest winds back in florida city i saw were 139mph with some higher gusts.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.