Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 688 - 638

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

688. Patrap
9:11 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
No,,the Japanese have a great Warning system.

Best tell him to stay tuned. And learn to look at th e weather. I find that very hard to believe. The Japanese are very typhoon savy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
687. JupiterFL
2:09 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Arough, that is one of the most unbelievable posts I have ever read on this board. You will be banned once again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
686. bobcane
2:02 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
I have a professinal collegue and friend in Japan. I spoke to him today via Skype. He told me he was unaware of Man-Yi and there has been nothing on TV about potential strike on Japan by Man-Yi. Can you believe that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
685. MelbourneTom
2:00 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
It looks like all of the https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/ links have become very slow or non functional. I did see that Okinawa has gone to TCCOR 1. Anyone elese having issues or is it my computer?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
684. Tropicnerd13
1:58 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
ok i gotta go eat and watch my shows. talk to you guys tomorrow. bye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
683. Tropicnerd13
1:55 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
ok that was super interesting i never knew that thanks jp and taytay and all of you guys helping me with that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
681. Tropicnerd13
1:47 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
go to this site to find others. they dont report hattie.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
680. benirica
1:54 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
well the cats out of the bag randommichael...
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
679. Blink
1:54 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Naha, Okinawa has a population of about 300 000 peeps. I hope they are ready for Man-Yi. And evening all. Im new here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
678. Patrap
8:53 PM CDT on July 11, 2007




Battle of Okinawa

The Battle of Okinawa, fought on the island of Okinawa in the Ryukyu Islands (south of the four big islands of Japan) was the largest amphibious assault during the Pacific campaign of World War II. It was the largest sea-land-air battle in history, running from April through June, 1945.

No one on either side expected it to be the last major battle of the war, which it was. The Americans were planning Operation Downfall, the invasion of the main islands, which never happened due to the controversial decision to use the atomic bomb.

The reference by Feifer (below) has much to say of Okinawa and how it influenced the end of the war � and the decision to use "The Bomb."

At some battles such as Iwo Jima, there had been no civilians, but Okinawa had a large indigenous civilian population, and the civilian loss in the Typhoon of Steel was at least 130,000. American losses were were over 72,000 casualties, of whom 12,000 were killed or missing, over twice Iwo Jima and Guadalcanal combined.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
676. Patrap
8:52 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
I was stationed there from Sept 82 to 83 at Camp Hansen on the east side of the Island. Father fought there in 1945 during the Battle of Okinawa . The last large scale battle of WW-2.Feel free to ask
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
675. TheCaneWhisperer
9:51 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Patrap always has the goods! A lot of US Military interests in the path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
674. benirica
1:50 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
why the hell does the US need 13 military bases on Okinawa?
or so many in one given country for that case... be it okinawa or be it the uk..
---- sorry for the political debate, its just i expected like one.. and then i saw all those ----
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
673. TheCaneWhisperer
9:50 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Just doing some research on that Patrap! Alot of people on that island!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
672. Patrap
8:48 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Map of Okinawa and the US Military interest there. Click to enlarge Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
671. Thundercloud01221991
1:48 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
670. Patrap
8:48 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Naha is the Capital city of the Island of Okinowa.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
669. Tropicnerd13
1:45 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
that storm must have been AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!! that would be cool if it happened often... except it would be bad for mankind, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
667. TheCaneWhisperer
9:42 PM EDT on July 11, 2007
Evening All!
Boy! Okinawa Island is going to get pounded by Man-Yi. Forcast to be 125kts at landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
666. TayTay
1:43 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
That would have been crazy to watch on a satellite loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
664. A4Guy
1:33 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
With the current images of May-Yi...are the storms that are over the Philippines and the South China Sea...over to Malaysia all outer bands/feeder bands from the storm? Holy cow! That is a HUGE chunk of real estate...granted, the storm is huge...but the bands go out for well over a thousand miles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
663. Tropicnerd13
1:39 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
hey jp, did it go like over panama then swerve in over nicaragua then go into the gulf? sounds possible, but unlikely to happen again. is it possible for storms to go through all 3 parts? like atlantic east pac west pac, or is that soooo unlikely it wont happen in our lifetime?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
662. TayTay
1:39 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Hattie or something. Like 1965 or '61.

Had 3 seperate names.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
661. Tropicnerd13
1:37 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
alright well apparently i am the all mighty powerful blog killer so i guess ill leave soon so you guys can talk.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
659. Tropicnerd13
1:35 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
ike, i know what you really meant when you commented on my comment, but i was just messing with you. lighten up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
658. IKE
8:35 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
...........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
657. Tropicnerd13
1:33 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
ike, im talking about that comment you commented on my comment at 113 gmt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
656. Tropicnerd13
1:31 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
huh? burrrrrrp... nah just talking stupidly. now lets get serious. why do you think im drunk? im just tired. woke up too early.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
655. TayTay
1:32 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
On several occasions. Many waves will travell the pacific and form in the East pacific. I'll wiki it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
654. IKE
8:32 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: StormW at 8:32 PM CDT on July 11, 2007.
Hey IKE!


Yo Bud!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
652. MelbourneTom
1:32 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Hi All - I am having some problems with the JTWC site. Finally got in but I do not see a 120000Z update. Are you experiencing some problems?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
651. IKE
8:31 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 8:30 PM CDT on July 11, 2007.
jp, were u talkin to me? i bet you do agree, huh? we all know it ISNT IKE!!! (just kidding)


Isn't what???????
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
650. Tropicnerd13
1:30 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
has a storm ever formed in the atlantic and went across central america into the pacific? that would be awesome... if anyone remembers if that ever happened please answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
649. IKE
8:30 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 8:24 PM CDT on July 11, 2007.
stormw got it. i thought dr masters was first, then between drak and jp. what ike, upset because i didnt put i in that?



???

I'm not mad at anyone.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
647. Tropicnerd13
1:28 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
jp, were u talkin to me? i bet you do agree, huh? we all know it ISNT IKE!!! (just kidding)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
645. Tropicnerd13
1:27 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
what evu taz.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
643. TayTay
1:26 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
With a name like that, it comes off as if you're mocking them. I know you mean well and like the name.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
641. NHCDirector
6:25 PM PDT on July 11, 2007
i this want to make a note right now i am not mocking the NHC at all i would nevere do some in like that i this pick this ID be come it look cool but i am not mocking the NHC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
640. Tropicnerd13
1:21 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
stormw got it. i thought dr masters was first, then between drak and jp. what ike, upset because i didnt put i in that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
639. TayTay
1:20 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
I personally think Monica and Wilma were stronger than Tip. Considering the differences between the Atlantic and the West pacific. (pressure wise)

Monica was one of the only storms with a truely perfect shape and had an incredible CDO. Wilma's pinhole eye was breathtaking. I was up all night refreshing satellite images and floaters with Wilma.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
638. Tropicnerd13
1:13 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
i dunno. i just googled it and i thought vance... i cant find anything about millibars.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 688 - 638

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.