Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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788. stoormfury
9:57 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Today is the 47th anniversary of hurricane ABBY hitting St Lucia



Link
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787. stoormfury
9:31 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Tay Tay
take a look at this WV image. it is very difficult to see this moisture dry up so quicklyLink
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786. TayTay
9:21 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
The moisture won't last. This wave is too close to the equator right now. Once it moves out of the ITCZ, that moisture will be gone. Convection won't last.
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785. stoormfury
8:59 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Good morning
the atantic at 10N 33W looks very interesting this morning. It looks like there is a mid to low level circulation attached to a tropical wave. Wind shear is at 5-19 knots in this area. Tne system is embedded in a lot of moisture, the chabces of further development are good
This area has to be watched over the next few days.Link
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784. sunshineandshowers
9:03 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
luckily (if that's the right word) it looks like the weaker western side will hit okinawa.
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783. KoritheMan
3:50 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
The eye is becoming less cloud-filled with Man-yi now than it was earlier, another signature that it's strengthening. Has some excellent convection on the equatorial side.
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782. Fshhead
8:47 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Here's all the west Pacific satellite shots of Man-Yi....... Just go to third row (image loops)
Link
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781. Fshhead
8:46 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Here is rainbow loop showing it..
Link
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780. Fshhead
8:42 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Sunshine as soon as the sun sets over there, Man-Yi is going to go through rapid intensification. The reasons Tay posted there are why!
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779. Fshhead
8:39 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Man & is it ever tracking right down the center of the projected cone. Perfect forecast so far except for the intensity part oops...
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778. sunshineandshowers
8:38 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
it's expected to reach Cat 5 according to wunderground page.
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777. TayTay
8:36 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Yeah, it's over bathwater and is in perfect shape for more intensifying.
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776. Fshhead
8:34 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Nope, I think it will get stronger for sure!!!Storms always rapidly intensify at night!!!!
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775. TayTay
8:33 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Those cloud tops will cool overnight and convection could grow. I don't think this monster is done intensifying yet.
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774. Fshhead
8:18 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Man-Yi is indeed following the projected path so far. Okinawa & Japan are in for a rough ride it would appear!!!
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773. entophile
8:07 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
I would not want to be in Okinawa this weekend.
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772. sullivanweather
6:54 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
What on earth is with the 'shoot the rapper' ad at the top of the screen?!?!
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771. stormybil
6:27 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
dont forget there was alot of dryair with 96l thats why it didnt make it as for now the dry air is alot less so this may have a shot yes we will see tomorow stay tuned
770. KoritheMan
12:58 AM CDT on July 12, 2007
watching the atl. today looks like the wave at 35 west wants to get its
act together . does it have a chance to do so ?

imo the tropics will be very active on july 19 and on just in my own opinion stay tuned


Like I said, unless this holds its convection for at least two days, both day and night, I won't be too concerned with it. Holding it just at night only to fizzle during the day simply won't do. That's why 96L was never classified.
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769. stormybil
4:52 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
watching the atl. today looks like the wave at 35 west wants to get its
act together . does it have a chance to do so ?

imo the tropics will be very active on july 19 and on just in my own opinion stay tuned
768. bobcane
4:53 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
me too, good nite all
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767. Patrap
11:45 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Me too..later gator.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
766. MrNiceville
4:38 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Thanks Pa - never paid attention to that stuff - figured it was all advertising!

Gotta hit the sack - need to get in the office early (aka before the managers) so I can get some work done...

Nite all
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765. Patrap
11:10 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
That lil red light on the left of the page on your puter screen. Click it. It says mailbox..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
764. MrNiceville
4:09 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
wu mail? what's that?
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763. MrNiceville
4:06 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
And that's what you hope for, Pa

I've met some good and some not so good CWOs - mostly the former variety. I'm extremely impressed by the way that the Marines tie promotion in the E ranks so closely to demonstrated ability to lead. It's just not that way in the other services.
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762. bobcane
4:07 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Thx Nice, WOW. That could mess my hair up.
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761. Patrap
11:06 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Did you get your wu-mail MrNiceville?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
760. MrNiceville
4:04 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
190 mph - http://www.euronet.nl/users/grantm/frans/speed.html
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759. hornfan
4:05 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
It will work out -- Issac
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758. Patrap
11:04 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Warrant Officers good guys. I knew some good ones
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
757. Patrap
11:03 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
We make do. Its been an experience. A trial of sorts. But the Kids are thriving. We all here. The rest will work out.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
756. MrNiceville
4:01 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Heck - don't need an invite - just tickets! Of course, someone does have to "reserve" the table. Got lucky - my "boss" was retired CWO-3 working at MFR, so he took care of the details for all 10 of us.

I was impressed (that's an understatement), but it may have just been the liquor (can you imagine?). Of course, my wife complained that she couldn't find me in the crowd because there were too many shaved heads...

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755. bobcane
4:02 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
The forecats for winds on Man-Yi are 165 kts. What is that in mph? I am thinking that is 185 mph, yes?
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754. MrNiceville
3:57 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Have a friend over in Pontchatula...

Understand - I think sis wants to move North Shore, but oldest daughter is 10th grade at Sacred Heart, youngest daughter is 1st grade there and son is going to go to Jesuit like his dad. So, dad refuses to move...

Sorry to hear about your wife - mine works for SSA in title 16 unit here - she's told me horror stories. Hope that your experience with them has been decent...
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753. Patrap
10:58 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Its fairly new nicelville.Was nice and new as a matter of fact. Plasma screens everywhere. Nice BAr. Sweet.Was packed at 1pm. Its above 12 heading north a lil..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
752. Patrap
10:57 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
The Hilton Gig is a Big event. Id need an invite. Most likely. Im just an ol enlisted air-winger.But 2nd generation MArine.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
751. MrNiceville
3:55 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Heck - I did drive past it 100s of times! I get off at Fairway to go to my folks' house in BC. Is it really there? Or is google maps screwed up and it's actually north of I-12? I rarely got up there unless it was to go to the C/W store for a pair of boots...
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750. Patrap
10:54 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Im stable for now . My situation is fluid though. Have nice all electic trailer as Wife is disabled..Daughter a Junior at Dominican ,and Son in 8th grade. Looking to move up Pontchatula way
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
749. MrNiceville
3:54 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
No - the REAL ball down at the Hilton!
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748. MrNiceville
3:48 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Understood, Pa - I think that my sis and bro-in-law are in there with you, and I'll leave it at that. I am of the same bent. Drove through the nightmare twice a day from Mandeville to Industrial Canal/River (NSA New Orleans). Never, ever, EVER went without a "friend" in the console next to me.

I won't say anything else negative - but I think you know my position on most things there. It's too easy to spiral off on that...

Are you rebuilding? Or are you still waiting for the Road Home check?

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747. Patrap
10:50 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Which Ball?...N Shore?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
746. Patrap
10:50 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
I celebrated the Nov 10th here at home
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
745. Patrap
10:49 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
Sorry niceville..twas Covington..LOL Link
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744. hurricane91
3:47 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
speaking of heat index, Napls, fl today broke a record, 112 degrees heat index today, thats about a mile or so from the beach
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743. MrNiceville
3:45 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
We usually go to Friends over in Madisonville, Pa...

Good local menu, well stocked bar, deck that sits out over the Tchefuncte, usually decent music on the weekends...

Say - were you at the Birthday Ball last Nov?
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742. Patrap
10:44 PM CDT on July 11, 2007
The COE are robbers and ruiners of Hoods. I dont kinder up to none of them. I was too close to the event and seen to much BS since from them. I have my claim in the 400Billion dollars suit,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
741. MrNiceville
3:42 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Good luck, tho - it's very slow to respond. I think they may be experiencing "technical difficulties" which means the NMCI support team has left the building...

Most everything was scheduled to shut down around noon (local) on Okinawa...
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739. MrNiceville
3:40 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Michael - try https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php
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738. MrNiceville
3:37 AM GMT on July 12, 2007
Acme? In Mandeville? I probably have driven by it 100 times, but can't place it. The only one I know is down in the Quarter...

Sorry to hear that - but I know how it goes. Sis still has no first floor - they live out of the second floor of their house. All studs and concrete on the first.

Any news on what ACOE is planning on doing re "appropriating" land on the backs of the levees? Last news I had was they wanted 75-100 feet out from the crests. Dropped my sister's house value like a rock - takes most of their backyard, half the swimming pool and part of the addition on their house...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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