Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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1187. MissBennet
6:32 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 6:31 PM GMT on July 12, 2007.

Just look at the infrared in Dr. Masters blog information. It's within an hour...Man-yi is strengthening.


OOps I didn't look at the time on that. Thanks!
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1186. MissBennet
6:31 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Hey guys... DONT FEED THE TROLLS.. if you ignore him, and don't get riled by what he says, he'll just go away.
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1185. weatherboykris
6:32 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
.
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1184. IKE
1:30 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: MissBennet at 1:27 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
Would someone please post a link to an up to date sat. pic of Man-Yi?

Thank you!


Just look at the infrared in Dr. Masters blog information. It's within an hour...Man-yi is strengthening.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1183. Patrap
1:31 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
MAn-yi 1500Z updated Position JTWC Link
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1179. hurricane91
6:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Naha, Japan is on the island Okinawa, i think
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1178. Patrap
1:28 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
NAHA wunderground Page..Link
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1177. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Naha is the capital of the Okinawa prefecture.
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1176. SCwxwatch
2:27 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:26 PM EDT on July 12, 2007.

I don't really believe the stray 40kt shear pockets.

The CIMSS maps have higher resolution, that is why it shows small areas with higher shear and the other one doesn't.


I like it because it has the infared overlay so you can see what wave is where.
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1175. Patrap
1:27 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
NAHA is the Capital of the Island of Okinawa..Its on the SW side ..of the South end..

Link
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1173. nash28
6:23 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Ok, I have been pretty busy at work today. Just checked the 12z CMC. I see that it brings a hurricane over the Bahamas at 144hrs. Still several days out, but something to watch.
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1172. MissBennet
6:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Would someone please post a link to an up to date sat. pic of Man-Yi?

Thank you!
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1171. cantstopme15
6:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
altestic shut up. stop spamming the blog.
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1170. IKE
1:24 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
This buoy is the closest to the wave, but it's at least 300 miles away....


"Conditions at 41041 as of
1750 GMT on 07/12/2007:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.98 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.1 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.2 F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.8 F".................

The pressure isn't any lower then it was 24 hours ago.

Looking at a visible loop of the central Atlantic, I see a spin at about 9N, 40.5W moving WNW. May not mean anything..but there's definitely a spin there.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1169. SCwxwatch
2:25 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
449 ABNT20 KNHC 121501 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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1168. bobw999
2:26 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
No one should answer Altestic questions.
1165. franck
6:19 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Lots of American interest, American folks on Nipponese islands.
Man-Yi becoming huge buzz saw as we watch.
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1164. hurricane91
6:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
i think its going to be a day or two untill we see 97l, its really still disorganized
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1162. NormalGuy
6:17 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Altestic, my 7 year old son just read your entry, shook his head, and walked away mumbling something about immature people these days...Now that is sad...anyway continue with the name calling if that makes you fell superior..
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1159. hurricane91
6:22 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
winds sustained at 47 mph in Naha, Japan
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1157. SCwxwatch
2:19 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Posted it because it was differant than the one I seen. trust what you want its all for informative purposes.
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1155. hurricane91
6:16 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Station 41041
down to 29.98, but isnt that few hundred mile aways and those others staions, arent they a good distance away
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1154. Tazmanian
6:17 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
why dos evere one keeep uesing the cimss maps they are nevere right
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1152. amazinwxman
6:00 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
been away for awhile but what's going on in the tropics anyone? And what's this about a tropical cyclone hitting south Fl? What am I missing?
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1151. bobw999
2:17 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
You hate every one Altestic.
1149. WeatherMSK
5:51 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
I think its a good point that if the CMC is picking something up that far out, it may not be accurate with that scenario playing out but, the fact that conditions in the Atlantic will start to become more favorable. That is what models should be used for. They show a general pattern. It will be interesting to see what the other models start to do with conditions.
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1146. SCwxwatch
2:15 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
a
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1144. bobw999
2:15 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
He won't go away. He will just make up a new handle.
1142. Tazmanian
6:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
whats wait and see if this Pressure falling keeps going or not
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1140. IKE
1:13 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 1:12 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
Okay, I've contacted the blog admin.


Great news!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1138. IKE
1:12 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Altestic97L at 1:11 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
Says nash, the most controversial user on the board...


You need to be banned...what Nash said is true. Do you have any compassion for people?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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