Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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1238. WeatherMSK
6:47 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Why do you guys seriously let this atlestic get to you so much? Just don't pay attention to what he has to say.
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1237. twostars
6:43 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Altestic, obliviously you are less than human if you speak about other humans that way.
I have sat on this site as a member for quite some time. I don't post because I am here to learn...not shoot my mouth off about things I don't know.
However, today I could not control myself anylonger regarding your comments.
I have seen others bicker before but when it is all over they remain civil to each other. You on the other hand have no business being in a blog where people care about each and look out for each other. Shame on you! You either need to grow up or get the heck out of this blog.
Just remember, bad Karma gets bad Karma
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1236. benirica
6:48 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
just a visual effect or is there a spin around 9N, 41W and if so, is it possible that the wave is actually organizing by lettings go the two main blobs it had yesterday and trying to form around that slight spin?
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1235. weathersp
2:46 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
COOL IT!! We dont need any other fights on this blog..

SCwx please drop it he will be gone shortly.

Everyone else please pay no attention to 97 he will be gone soon. Until then click the minus sign on the right hand corner on his posts
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1229. IKE
1:45 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Jeez...that pressure just keeps dropping...

"Observed at: Naha City, JP
Elevation: 26 ft
[Rain Showers]
79 F
Showers Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 F
Wind: 31 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 51 mph
Pressure: 28.71 in (Falling)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 800 ft
Scattered Clouds 1000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1500 ft
Few 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"...........


Their fixin to get hurricane force winds...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1226. IKE
1:43 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
I've got him on ignore.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1225. Patrap
1:43 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
With a landfalling Typhoon in the forefront..can we not show the lurking visitors and regulars from around the globe..this ugly side of the site?... Have a lil common decency to ignore a fool.

Use the tools on the post to minus it.Then move on.

Its real easy.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
1221. nash28
6:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Guys-

This waste of space is just trying to get under your skin. Since he is completely useless, he has nothing better to do while on summer vacation from 6th grade.

Just send him an email... That way, you can REALLY let him have it, without crossing the language line on here...

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1220. bobw999
2:40 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
I see you can SPEAK ENGLISH, so you ARE a person cantstopme15. : )

SHUT UP ALREADY!!!! Where do you think you got your computer???? Most likely China, where they speak Chinese.
1218. MissBennet
6:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Guys, just hit the minus sign on the side of the comments he's making to ignore him------------->

Then hit the red exclamation point at the end to report those comments.
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1217. Tazmanian
6:41 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
this Altestic97L well soon be gone
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1216. cantstopme15
6:40 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
my parents don't so they're not human, just shutup
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1214. SCwxwatch
2:38 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Altestic97L
Dude Ive had enough of your ignorant mouth!!

Ive reported you to the blog admin.
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1213. cantstopme15
6:40 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
but this guy just crossed the line
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1210. IKE
1:39 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: benirica at 1:35 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
just a visual effect or is there a spin around 9N, 41W and if so, is it possible that the wave is actually organizing by lettings go the two main blobs it had yesterday and trying to form around that slight spin?


It could be...that's where I see a spin.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1209. 0741
6:16 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
how do you know pressure is dropping? you need shear go down and afica dust,dry air move away
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1208. Tazmanian
6:39 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
now now no bad words
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1204. Tazmanian
6:36 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
i have sent a e mail to aron about Altestic97L and how he is spaming th blog and i ask aron if he can put a IP ban on him he is Altestic87 that was ban her from be for
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1202. IKE
1:35 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 1:34 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
The Northern Eyewall is now approaching the South end of Okinawa.


OOPS! You answered my previous question. That IS Okinawa...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1199. Patrap
1:36 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Use the minus symbol folks.
Dont respond to idiocy.
It only breeds more.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
1197. bobw999
2:36 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
What, you callin' non-English speakers "people"????????? LMAO, they are less than human

Ok than what are they?? FREAKING IDIOT!!!!
1196. benirica
6:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
sorry if im wrong, dont bite my head off! lol
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1195. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:33 PM GMT on July 12, 2007


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1193. benirica
6:33 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
just a visual effect or is there a spin around 9N, 41W and if so, is it possible that the wave is actually organizing by lettings go the two main blobs it had yesterday and trying to form around that slight spin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1192. Patrap
1:32 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
The Northern Eyewall is now approaching the South end of Okinawa.The track Guidance is a bad one for the Island will be in the right front Quad for a Prolonged period. I dont expect the NAha Station to be reporting much longer ..Lets hope for the best ..its going to be a long night and day for them folks.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
1191. IKE
1:32 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: weatherboykris at 1:32 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
The storm appears to be strengthening.


It's moving almost due north. Whats that first island it's headed for? Their fixin to get hammered bad.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.