Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1288 - 1238

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

1287. gthsii
7:14 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
I second that: Thanks Admin!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1286. IKE
2:14 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Looks like it weakened slightly in the last updated IR picture above....but the worst is approaching the island now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1285. NormalGuy
7:08 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Echos PatRap....Semper Fi, and I hope they keep their heads down.. Thanks for all the input about the models. I agree with all of you, long range forecasting has to start somewhere and the models are great for trends but determining the strength and track can change by the hour. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1283. Patrap
2:13 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Domo Arogoto Aaron..thanks for the reminder.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
1282. SCwxwatch
3:13 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Thank you Admin!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1281. gthsii
7:10 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
"over 12,000 American service members lost their lives, along with more than 90,000 Japanese service members and civilians."

OMG, numbers like that are just mind numbing. Senseless, senseless loss of life on both sides. And look at us now, we're great allies and trade partners. My brain hurts trying to comprehend losses of this magnitude.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1280. Patchmedic
7:12 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Live webcam of Naha Japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1279. WunderYakuza (Admin)
12:10 PM PDT on July 12, 2007
Hey everyone, thanks for flagging our troll. In the future remember that it's useless to argue with trolls, in fact it often times helps them. That is what the troll wants, it it how the troll survives. Simply flag, minus, and ignore. I'll get them booted out of the system when I see it.

Thanks again!
1278. hcubed
2:10 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
"Posted By: bobw999 at 2:06 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.

I see Altestic is gone.

Bring on the next troll!!"


But he keeps following us home... Can't we keep it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. IKE
2:11 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Check out the pressure....

"Observed at: Naha City, JP
Elevation: 26 ft
[Rain Showers]
81 F
Showers Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 F
Wind: 33 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 59 mph
Pressure: 28.65 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 87 F
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 800 ft
Scattered Clouds 1000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1500 ft
Few 2000 ft
(Above Ground Level)"......

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1276. SCwxwatch
3:11 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Has it followed the Cone well?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1275. CJ5
7:05 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
From JMA: TY 0704 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 18:00 UTC, 12 July 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 24.9N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 170NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 350NM EAST 280NM WEST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1274. Thundercloud01221991
7:10 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 6:53 PM GMT on July 12, 2007.

LOL... This is what a Google seasrch for Altestic brings (I was just wondering what it meant):

Sponsored LinkThe Signs Of Autism
www.NationalAutismAssociation.org Resources for Families Affected by Autism. We can help!
Learn About Autism
Autism Support, Treatment, Events
Info & More-Learn How You Can Help!
www.KylesTreeHouse.org
Did you mean: Autistic

LOL!



Please do not put me with him I do not wish cast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1273. Patchmedic
7:11 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
http://niraikanai.com/livecam/live.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1272. Patrap
2:11 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Island of Okinawa.

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
1271. hcubed
2:10 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
"Posted By: randommichael at 2:00 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.

Is there a place where I can get live weather conditions from Okinawa?"


From earlier in the blog:

Japan Meterology Agency Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1270. jeanri2000
7:06 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
for the cmc - Do they have a statistic on its accuracy for a storm 144 hours out that does not yet exist?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1269. Patrap
2:08 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
The Island is 60nm long ..by 12nm at its widest point
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
1268. Patrap
2:07 PM CDT on July 12, 2007

The battle of Okinawa was one of the last major battles of World War II and was the last ground combat offensive during the pacific campaign. During the battle, over 12,000 American service members lost their lives, along with more than 90,000 Japanese service members and civilians.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
1267. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:02 PM GMT on July 12, 2007


21 m/s is about 40 knots..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1265. Patrap
2:07 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Good Luck to my USMC friends serving in Okinawa...Semper Fi.

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
1264. nash28
7:06 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
It's all about consistency and model agreement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1262. IKE
2:03 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 2:03 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
Models are hit and miss.... There have been several storms over the years that were called DAYS before they actually formed. On the flip side, the models can call for a storm that never materializes....


That's exactly the way to describe it.

This much is almost certain...that moisture around 40N is heading west-northwest and will be affecting the islands this weekend. It looks to continue heading WNW after that. That's what I've noticed from every model I've looked at for the past 2 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1260. Patrap
2:04 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Naha 1945,,after the BAttle of Okinawa,from my Fathers collection Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130489
1259. gthsii
7:02 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
IMO: 144 is a long way out to be anywhere near accurate...perhaps OK for trends. Certainly not accurate with respect to track or intensity. (hopefully i wont be eating crow in 7 days as a TS comes bearing down on my doorstep)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1258. Blink
7:03 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Bama there's a slight chance it could get to cat.5 but doesn't look it will right now hopefully.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1257. Bamatracker
7:02 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Normal guy....we have to start somewhere with longer range forcast. So just push them out to 6 days to see what happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1256. nash28
7:01 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Models are hit and miss.... There have been several storms over the years that were called DAYS before they actually formed. On the flip side, the models can call for a storm that never materializes....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1255. whitewabit (Mod)
7:02 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Observed at: Okinawa, JP
Elevation: 148 ft / 45 m

77 F / 25 C
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 F / 24 C
Wind: 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 70 mph / 113 km/h / 31.4 m/s
Pressure: 28.78 in / 974 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 1.8 miles / 2.9 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 800 ft / 243 m

(Above Ground Level)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1254. NormalGuy
6:57 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
So is that 2 models now venturing out 144 hours to stir up some media attention??? Sorry couldn't help it but the models aren't that reliable, maybe 72 hours out they are okay but come on 6 days? Anyone agree or disagree, i can handle a discussion without name-calling, unlike some others on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1252. ryang
2:57 PM AST on July 12, 2007
LOL STL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1251. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:51 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
a97l about to be wiped off the blog map see ya
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1250. Bamatracker
6:57 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
will it make it to a cat 5?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1249. IKE
1:57 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Okinawa wind gust...70 mph.

It's getting close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1248. IKE
1:56 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1247. Bamatracker
6:54 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
what is man-yi now...what cat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1245. hurricane91
6:53 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
probably not micheal, but i dont know the elevation the islands though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1241. coyoteb1
6:51 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Play nice, people - those of us living in South Florida consider this way too serious of a place to clutter it up with needless invective
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1240. Bamatracker
6:51 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.

guys dont let him get to you. Dont be caaught with a smoking gun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1239. IKE
1:51 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
just a visual effect or is there a spin around 9N, 41W and if so, is it possible that the wave is actually organizing by lettings go the two main blobs it had yesterday and trying to form around that slight spin?

I answered you earlier.

It could be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1238. WeatherMSK
6:47 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Why do you guys seriously let this atlestic get to you so much? Just don't pay attention to what he has to say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1288 - 1238

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
22 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley
Big Sur Clouds