Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:24 PM GMT on July 11, 2007

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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1338. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:57 PM GMT on July 12, 2007

Issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency
At 4:50am 13th July

As of 4:00am...
Typhoon Man-yi (マンニイ T0704) has 10 min sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts up to 135 knots with a central pressure of 930 hPa.

5am
95 kts
135 kts (gusts)
930 hPa

9am
95 kts
135 kts (gusts)
930 hPa
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1337. weathermanwannabe
3:00 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Haven't looked at any of the models (CMC) but might it be suggesting formation out of a remnant of the front passing through Florida right now into the Gulf, or, are they looking at a system approaching Florida from somewhere else?.........
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1336. Shrap
7:57 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
So does anyone else think the SAL graphic's usefulness surfers from its lack of color resolution between weak and strong reading?

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1335. weathersp
3:55 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Still live and feeding... This image was 13 min ago. Electricity is still on..

Webcam on Island
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1334. tropicfreak
3:59 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Welcome bamabeach
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1333. weathermanwannabe
2:57 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Welcome BamaBeach......
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1332. SCwxwatch
3:57 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Welcome Bamabeach!!
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1329. tropicfreak
3:35 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
East coast

The storm off the coast of the carolinas could develop if it can form a spin.Already seeing some convection building up.Shear is low and the waters are warm enough.But in the meantime let's just call it a blob.
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1328. bamabeach
7:43 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
New to the site. Have been on Alabama coast now for 25 years. Had they zoomed in after Ivan hit land you could have seen the roof of my house in the eye. Made it out o.k. though.
Don't much like what I see or have heard so far for '07.
Look forward to being on board. Will probably not be posting a whole bunch but will try and contribute when I can.
Lot of knowledge among this group.
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1326. Dakster
7:44 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
The translation is rather funny, but definetly better than trying to read Japanese!
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1325. NormalGuy
7:28 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
at 4AM the Marines at least have been awake and at work for at least an hour.. Just kidding of course. And your right what a horrible alarm clock. Rain and wind pounding your window
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1324. Thundercloud01221991
7:39 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Here is the Web cam web page translated into English

Link
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1323. IKE
2:41 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Pressure at Naha City, Japan....

"Pressure: 28.59 in (Falling)"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1322. Patrap
2:40 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Hammer worked on it..But its in and out now as the power struggles to stay on
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1321. Patchmedic
7:39 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Thanks Patrap for fixing that web cam link
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1320. IKE
2:38 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 2:36 PM CDT on July 12, 2007.
Actually, he did update....

Not sure why he didn't mention the CMC forecast.... That forecast has a hurricane in six days approaching the FL peninsula. While I completely agree that Man-Yi is obviously more important right now, there is one model showing development in the coming week.


Yeah...he did update.

How come no mention of the rather large, poorly organized tropical wave Dr. Masters?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1319. Patrap
2:37 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
At least the laughs bring smiles .
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1318. nash28
7:34 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Actually, he did update....

Not sure why he didn't mention the CMC forecast.... That forecast has a hurricane in six days approaching the FL peninsula. While I completely agree that Man-Yi is obviously more important right now, there is one model showing development in the coming week.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1317. gthsii
7:35 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Oooh Rah...Semper fi...sweetie.

:-) I gotcha now :-)
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1316. Patrap
2:33 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Oooh Rah...Semper fi...sweetie.
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1315. Patrap
2:32 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
The webcam enabled..Okinawa..Link
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1314. gthsii
7:30 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Patrap: there was no correction to be made...you misunderstood my post. And really, please have some respect and drop the cutesy nicknames. You dont know me, so calling me dear and sweetie is completely vacuous.
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1313. stampapaul
7:31 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
gthsii...you have mail
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1312. IKE
2:31 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
No.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1311. Patrap
2:29 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Man-yi Prognostic Reasoning



WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) HAS INTENSIFIED TO 125 KTS, WITH THE
EYE DIAMETER STEADY AT 30 NM. A 120934Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE WALL, AND SPIRAL BANDING
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM, THIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY 04W TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POSITION DUE TO
THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5/6.5. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 04W REMAINS UNCHANGED: THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A STANDARD POLEWARD FLOW SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR. ONCE NORTH OF STR AXIS THE STORM
WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
B. TY 04W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR
OVER OKINAWA. TY 04W WILL REACH THIS BREAK NEAR TAU 12, AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TURN NORTHEAST. THE TC WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) SOUTH OF JAPAN NEAR TAU 48. THE
UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL
FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO THE ET OF TY 04W AND WILL AID IN THE ACCELERATION
OF THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS ET BEGINS. THE FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, BUT IS FASTER IN THE ALONG-TRACK
DIRECTION FROM TAU 48 ONWARD.
C. THE STORM SHOULD COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72 IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KANTO PLAIN AS IT ACCELERATES IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. WHILE UNDER
GOING ET, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DESPITE THIS FACT, THE STORM WILL STILL
PRODUCE WINDS OVER 60 KTS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
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1310. nash28
7:28 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Did Dr. Masters just update?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1309. Patrap
2:28 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Anyway..the storm appears to be feeling the NE flow aloft..it could turn NEasterly a lil earlier than the track forecast calls for.
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1308. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:27 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
yup 4am Friday morning
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1307. CJ5
7:22 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
It certainly has beefed up convection in the last three hours. It is not following the forecasted turn they were expecting and appears it may move NE of the Okinawa. I see the forcasted path has been adjusted and it is expected to ride down the middle of the Island and still be a Cat 1 by the time it reached Tokyo. In the latestest loop, I still do not see it making the turn to the E. Thoughts?
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1306. Patrap
2:27 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Patronising wasnt my intent sweetie...correction was..
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1305. gthsii
7:26 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
thanks stampapaul....
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1304. stampapaul
7:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Well put gthsii!!
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1303. Blink
7:24 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Okinawa cam. It's way too dark to see anything.

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1302. SCwxwatch
3:22 PM EDT on July 12, 2007
Its only 4 am over there?

Gonna Suck to wake up to this storm


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1301. gthsii
7:17 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
Senseless?..we stopped the Japanese there dear. My Father and many Grandfathers now living and gone..served the Nation with Honor and distinction there.
Some, ...thousands ..gave their lives so we can blog here today Please dont diminish that FACT .

It dont jibe.

Dont patronise me dear, take a step back and look at the big picture. ANY killing is senseless. I did not disrespect what our servicemen did in that war by what i wrote. I have family that served as well.

And what all my family members that served have felt, and what was my point, is that humanity can do this to itself. Can decide that for whatever reason, be it oil resources, land, precious minerals, etc. that we can decide to kill and kill over such issues. It is indeed senseless. It shows how truly underdeveloped our species is. We have so far to go.
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1300. benirica
7:18 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
i dont think all those people had to die... im sorry Patrap, just my thought and i understand and respect yours.
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1299. nash28
7:20 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
That would put the winds at 155mph. CAT5.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1298. Patchmedic
7:16 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
http://www.camcentral.com/listings.php?task=map&item=location&show=Japan


Try this then click on Okinawa
I am seeing it fine
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1297. hurricane91
7:19 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
i dont think their wind are ts any more, they have to be at least at hurricane force or if not higher
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1296. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:17 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
The JMA has started the 1 hour advisories.
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1295. zaqxsw76063
7:17 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
according to navy site, man-yi is now 135kt, 922mb
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1294. Thundercloud01221991
7:17 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
I am autistic and you said that his name means that
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1292. fireflymom
7:13 PM GMT on July 12, 2007
hcubed-only if you clean it & feed it tropical weather.
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1291. Patrap
2:17 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Senseless?..we stopped the Japanese there dear. My Father and many Grandfathers now living and gone..served the Nation with Honor and distinction there.
Some, ...thousands ..gave their lives so we can blog here today Please dont diminish that FACT .

It dont jibe.
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1290. IKE
2:15 PM CDT on July 12, 2007
Man-yi better turn in a hurry or the island is going to get the eye.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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