More heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

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An assessment team from NOAA headquarters returns to the National Hurricane Center today to interview staffers and director Bill Proenza about the on-going upheaval at the center. Last week, most of the senior staff called for Mr. Proenza to step down. I continue to support the senior staff on this issue, as detailed in a blog from last week. It's up to the NOAA assessment team to sort things out now, which will not be easy. I hope that the NOAA assessment team fairly considers the evidence, and that wisdom prevails in this unfortunate conflict.

Tropical Update
Fortunately for all concerned, the tropical Atlantic is very quiet at present. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models hint at anything developing over the coming week. It's a different story in the Pacific, where tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to become the season's first Category 3 or higher typhoon. Man-Yi could threaten Japan late this week.

More heat
Friday's high temperature of 129 degrees in Death Valley was only five degrees away from the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America--the 134 degrees (you guessed it) in Death Valley, back on July 10, 1913. Temperatures cooled off over the weekend, but not a lot--Sunday's high was 120 degrees (but it was a "dry" heat!) The heat will continue over the West this week, but we have likely witnessed the peak temperatures from this heat wave. With thunderstorm activity expected to pick up this week across the West, expect plenty of lightning-triggered fires to erupt. Utah is already reporting its biggest forest fire in history, and we can expect one of the worst summer fire seasons on record across the Western U.S.

June wasn't exceptionally hot across the U.S.--the National Climatic Data Center reported that June 2007 was the 23rd warmest and 33rd driest June in the historical record (since 1895). The period January - June was the 18th warmest on record. July will probably not set any heat records for the U.S. as a whole, despite the Western heat wave, since a major trough of low pressure is forecast to bring unseasonably cool air across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.

Good-bye, Margie!
View From the Surface blogger Margie Kieper is retiring from blogging as of today. She wants to focus her energies on contributing to the science of tropical meteorology, and hopes to become a co-author on scholarly journal articles. Margie is one of the best researchers I've worked with, and I'm sure she'll do well. We'll miss her thorough and informative blog posts!

Jeff Masters

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434. BahaHurican
1:02 AM GMT on July 10, 2007
Evening all,

I see Rappaport is holding the ball.

Actually, I didn't understand why he didn't get the job originally. Didn't I get the impression he turned it down? So now he either is doing it full time, or he's holding on until they find somebody else to take over.

This could almost be as interesting as the rest of the 2007 season . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
433. msphar
10:53 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Ladybug, anything falling off the African coast has about 40 degrees of Longitude to cross on its way to the Caribbean, every degree is split into 60 minutes of arc the world around, and an old nautical sayings goes something like "a minute is a mile the world around" which means there are about (40 X 60) 2400 nautical miles for a storm to cross. If the storm moves at 10 nautical miles hour on average, that means it will take 240 hours to make the crossing, which is about 10 days. So there is your answer and a bit logic to help you figure this stuff out on your own. Now you probably need to figure how far it is from the Windward islands to the place you call home. You should be able to approximate that with these as guidelines. A nautical miles is longer than the American mile. Its about 6014 if I remember correctly as opposed to the 5280 of the standard American mile .
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
432. hurricane91
10:31 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
that area of disturbed weather east of panama (wave) is it heading west towards the epac, or north or nw (lets hope west)
431. ladyweatherbug
9:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Cheese and rice....can we focus on some tropical weather and not a bunch of bs? That'd be great, thanx.

Nash - do you think that the thing coming off of the coast of Africa has a good chance of development? If so, are we looking at it being closer to us within the week? Thank you for your response.
430. Antivanity
8:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
thank you for pointing out the obvious thisisfurious. But pointing out the obvious to a bunch of trolls and bandwagoner's does nothing.. obviously.. lol
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
429. thisisfurious
8:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
sorry everyone. Guess I had to get that out...
428. stormybil
8:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
thats sheer 13 lol
427. thisisfurious
8:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I hate stirring things up this way, well - sort of....

Mostly, I am just frustrated.

When Bill Proenza first came on with all the talk of supporting new technology to ensure safety and his whole rally - so many of you supported him! I don't need to go back and cut and paste - you know who you are. I was one of them! I still think he had a good mission in mind (but its true, when you work for government you can't rock the boat).

It's the same with most of you on every blob thinking its going to fizzle or its going to be a cat 5 with every burst/lack of convection.

Get a grip. Step back and breathe.

And lastly - Adrian: you are a tool. Get over yourself.



I get so frustrated with people thinking they are experts and "I predicted this" and "I thought this from the beginning" do-all end-all crap.
426. stormybil
8:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
kman with sheer decreasing will it have a chance and where will it head thanks
425. Drakoen
8:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
we will have to see what the 18z run says.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
424. Tropicnerd13
8:39 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
hey guys was i right about the system in the eastern pacific?
423. IKE
8:39 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
422. Drakoen
8:39 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Kman the shear is decreasing over that area. Acoording to the shear tendency map along with the NOGAPS forecast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
421. Tropicnerd13
8:38 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
alright, seems like we need a head on comercial right about now.head on apply directly to the forehead
420. IKE
8:38 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
GFS will run again in about an hour.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
419. kmanislander
8:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
The 2:05 discussion refers to broad low pressure across the SW Caribbean.
Although shear is on the high side this area is beginning to look a little bit interesting with strong convection on the increase

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
418. stormybil
8:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
we like ed its just like having max back again hes great .
417. Drakoen
8:36 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 8:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 3:32 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Wave of Africa.

That wave just coming off of Africa is the one(apparently), that the GFS has around 40W in about 3 days


yea i saw that run. We will have to wait and see.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
416. snotly
8:36 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Pat that circulation is half the size of Australia. Itís chewing up all the energy off of the west PAC ITCZ

Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 686
415. nash28
8:36 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Look Detroit- If the guy was indeed a poison, then I have absolutely NO ISSUE with the seniors who have been there since dirt doing something to remove the cancer.

Now, they can concentrate on what they are there for.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
414. southbeachdude
8:36 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
so the new hurricane center director was reassigned today.....any thoughts Dr. Masters?
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 697
413. bobw999
8:35 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
LOL!!! DetroitWxMan
411. DetroitWxMan
8:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I work for an NWS office and I never realized that if I wanted to get rid of my boss...all I had to do was pass around a petition and go hold a press conference across the street from the building with the local TV stations.

Interesting precedent set by the NHC staff!
410. IKE
8:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:32 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Wave of Africa.


That wave just coming off of Africa is the one(apparently), that the GFS has around 40W in about 3 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
409. kylejourdan2006
8:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Don't know if this was posted or not, but here's CNN's Breaking News message:

-- National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza has left his position after
staff signed a petition calling for his ouster, CNN confirms.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
408. Drakoen
8:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Wave of Africa.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
407. bobw999
8:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Tropical Depression 4E!!!
406. moonlightcowboy
8:31 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 8:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
Some of the BS statements that are typed out on this blog are mind-boggling.


...lol, Ike...you know, a mind is a terrible thing! Especially mine.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
405. Soloco2
8:31 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Wow........Jax seems to have some personal issues.....I will miss him.........NOT!!!!
404. bobw999
8:30 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Shut up Altestic87. I don't understand why Aaron hasn't banned you.
403. nash28
8:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Flyforfun- And this is different how???

It's not just licking your finger, sticking it up in the air and making a guess.

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
402. Altestic87
8:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Someone needs to kick that Bermuda High just east of Florida way out to sea.
401. Tropicnerd13
8:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
it seems to me that the cab driver is faster than the car driver.
400. bobw999
8:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
flyforfun- Why don't you start doing forecast if you think your so great.
399. Tropicnerd13
8:27 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
thanks mstl. i o u 1.
398. flyforfun
8:27 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
With regards to hurrican forcasting, I lost confidence in the NOAA a long time ago! How many people in this country can keep a job and be wrong the majority of time? Look at last years predictions and this years....zero! Need to clean house or start predicting lottery numbers in stead!
397. IKE
8:27 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 3:21 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Hey Jax- You could have just sent him a private email bonehead.


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
396. stormybil
8:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
well the antilies wave is heading for the car. and will pass the islands what will happen if it gets in the cab . is the sheer high there now i dont see dry air will it have a chance
395. IKE
8:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 3:18 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
and what about the antilies wave is that going in the car. or....


It's streaking to the west. Not much to it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
394. 0741
8:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
noooo way i donot like Jeff Masters to our hurr dir you cazy!!!!!!!!!
393. Altestic87
8:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Wow. The Bermuda high has been TOO far south so far this year...
392. StormHype
8:24 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hopefully new director will only complain about bad coffee and traffic occasionally and not a multi-hundred-million dollar satellite 24/7.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1210
391. Tropicnerd13
8:24 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
sorry if this is a double post. that pic was just something interesting i thought you guys might enjoy.
390. rmh9903
8:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Jeff Masters to be named NHC director. LOL That would be cool.
389. Tropicnerd13
8:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
here is man yi's Link
img sea level pressure(mb) /surface wind speed(kts)
yay! i did it! im not a tard!!
388. nash28
8:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I miss reading Steve's blogs too. Very detailed and informative.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
387. nash28
8:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hey Jax- You could have just sent him a private email bonehead.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
386. hurricane23
8:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Nash the true person that i really miss is steve gregory.His blogs during wilma were incredible.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
385. Drakoen
8:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Looking forward to the new graphical TWO coming up this week


yea i saw that should be interesting.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
384. jaxparrothead
8:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Dr Masters

Happy now? You and your collegues campaign based on faulty research, incomplete reporting, falsehoods, misstatements and half-truths have ruined the career of a well-known and respected man while at the same time creating a new journalistic category: that of tabloid-meterology.

In the future, when I want weather information I will seek it elsewhere. If I am ever in the market for gossip and cannot make it to the grocery store checkout line, I will return here.

Steve Palmeter

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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