More heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

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An assessment team from NOAA headquarters returns to the National Hurricane Center today to interview staffers and director Bill Proenza about the on-going upheaval at the center. Last week, most of the senior staff called for Mr. Proenza to step down. I continue to support the senior staff on this issue, as detailed in a blog from last week. It's up to the NOAA assessment team to sort things out now, which will not be easy. I hope that the NOAA assessment team fairly considers the evidence, and that wisdom prevails in this unfortunate conflict.

Tropical Update
Fortunately for all concerned, the tropical Atlantic is very quiet at present. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models hint at anything developing over the coming week. It's a different story in the Pacific, where tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to become the season's first Category 3 or higher typhoon. Man-Yi could threaten Japan late this week.

More heat
Friday's high temperature of 129 degrees in Death Valley was only five degrees away from the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America--the 134 degrees (you guessed it) in Death Valley, back on July 10, 1913. Temperatures cooled off over the weekend, but not a lot--Sunday's high was 120 degrees (but it was a "dry" heat!) The heat will continue over the West this week, but we have likely witnessed the peak temperatures from this heat wave. With thunderstorm activity expected to pick up this week across the West, expect plenty of lightning-triggered fires to erupt. Utah is already reporting its biggest forest fire in history, and we can expect one of the worst summer fire seasons on record across the Western U.S.

June wasn't exceptionally hot across the U.S.--the National Climatic Data Center reported that June 2007 was the 23rd warmest and 33rd driest June in the historical record (since 1895). The period January - June was the 18th warmest on record. July will probably not set any heat records for the U.S. as a whole, despite the Western heat wave, since a major trough of low pressure is forecast to bring unseasonably cool air across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.

Good-bye, Margie!
View From the Surface blogger Margie Kieper is retiring from blogging as of today. She wants to focus her energies on contributing to the science of tropical meteorology, and hopes to become a co-author on scholarly journal articles. Margie is one of the best researchers I've worked with, and I'm sure she'll do well. We'll miss her thorough and informative blog posts!

Jeff Masters

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84. FLfishyweather
5:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Shear will continue to stay fairly low in the GOM for a while...
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83. Drakoen
5:02 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Michael i was just mentioning it lol.
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81. FLfishyweather
4:55 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Good day everyone
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80. pottery2
12:45 PM AST on July 09, 2007
Good day.
Sky is clearing a bit here now, but loads of weather to the east and south. Pressure at 1015, which is up 2 pts from 8:ooam
So it would appear to be ITCZ activity, rather than any other thing.
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79. Drakoen
4:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
We'll have to see if the CMC shows it again on the next run. The GFS does show something with a spin its not much to mention.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
78. Drakoen
4:42 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: bobw999 at 4:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Glenn. Steve sometimes bypasses the torpical update or mentions it for a sec.

I was going to say if it was Steve than it must be something


yea. But glenn did mention it again even after the update. i don't wanna quote but he said something along the lines of: the tropics are quite execpt for that one little are than we are watching. It seems to have a little spin to it so we'll keep our eyes on it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
76. JupiterFL
4:39 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
randommichael
You are just full of predictions. What is the reasoning behind the development theory?
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73. bobw999
12:35 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Glenn. Steve sometimes bypasses the torpical update or mentions it for a sec.

I was going to say if it was Steve than it must be something.
72. Drakoen
4:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
shear continues to decrease in the Caribbena and parts of the ITCZ.
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71. Drakoen
4:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: bobw999 at 4:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Was it Steve??


Glenn. Steve sometimes bypasses the torpical update or mentions it for a sec.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
70. Drakoen
4:30 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Anyone see what the CMC sees? it shows something coming out of the ITCZ headed for the lesser Antilles. Use the 850 mb. it starts forming 108 hours out. Which would be 4 days or so.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
68. bobw999
12:28 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Was it Steve??
67. barbadosjulie
4:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
ok thanks guys.
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66. IKE
11:26 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: barbadosjulie at 11:25 AM CDT on July 09, 2007.
I mean everyone.


Most of the weather should go south of you.
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65. Drakoen
4:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: bobw999 at 4:24 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Which meteorologist Drakoen?


My local meteorologist. He does a tropical update during the news cast. If you live in Palm Beach County. New channel 5.
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64. barbadosjulie
4:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I mean everyone.
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63. IKE
11:24 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
I see now that Barbados is east of 60West and north of 13North.
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62. kmanislander
4:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: barbadosjulie at 4:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Tonight: Cloudy with some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.

But as i said i do not trust them, so that's why i am asking u guys. You are usually right.


To me that forecast looks reasonable
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61. bobw999
12:24 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Which meteorologist Drakoen?
60. IKE
11:23 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 11:18 AM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Good morning all

Not much in the ATL today and a little blow up in the SW Caribbean.
Barbadosjulie: It looks like most of the rain will slip by to your S with the wave that is about to enter the Caribbean. Perhaps a chance of the odd shower or so from it. What are your local met people saying ?


You could be right...less showers. I was looking at the wrong island on a visible loop.
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59. Drakoen
4:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 4:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 11:15 AM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Intersting wave coming of Africa if it can stay South it may do a 96L, but only this time there is more (alot more) convection for it to feed of. We also need to be wacthing the ITCZ. Yestereday my local meteorologist point out a wave that had some spin to it and he is keep an eye out on it.


Which wave? The one approaching Barbados/Grenada?

No. much farther east. to the ESE.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
58. barbadosjulie
4:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Tonight: Cloudy with some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms.

But as i said i do not trust them, so that's why i am asking u guys. You are usually right.
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57. IKE
11:18 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:15 AM CDT on July 09, 2007.
Intersting wave coming of Africa if it can stay South it may do a 96L, but only this time there is more (alot more) convection for it to feed of. We also need to be wacthing the ITCZ. Yestereday my local meteorologist point out a wave that had some spin to it and he is keep an eye out on it.


Which wave? The one approaching Barbados/Grenada?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
56. kmanislander
4:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Good morning all

Not much in the ATL today and a little blow up in the SW Caribbean.
Barbadosjulie: It looks like most of the rain will slip by to your S with the wave that is about to enter the Caribbean. Perhaps a chance of the odd shower or so from it. What are your local met people saying ?

here's the loop showing mostly a due W movement for the wave below you ( sorry the link will not load )
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55. IKE
11:15 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
barbadosjulie....you should have rain moving in with those clouds/tropical disturbance, moving west from the Atlantic...

Your forecast....

"Monday
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. High: 86 F. Wind East 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Monday Night
Scattered Clouds. Low: 78 F. Wind East 22 mph.
Tuesday
Chance of Rain. Partly Cloudy. High: 86 F. Wind ENE 24 mph. Chance of precipitation 20%."...........


Might need to be changed! I don't blame you.
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53. Drakoen
4:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Intersting wave coming of Africa if it can stay South it may do a 96L, but only this time there is more (alot more) convection for it to feed of. We also need to be wacthing the ITCZ. Yestereday my local meteorologist point out a wave that had some spin to it and he is keep an eye out on it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
52. Melagoo
4:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
they forecast a high of 93F here 110F humidex
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51. barbadosjulie
4:10 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
How is the weather looking here in Barbados for tonight? Honestly, i do not trust the Mets here, they are never right, you guys seem to forcast better:)
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50. IKE
11:08 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
74 dewpoint is about what it is here in the Florida panhandle....suppose to be strong trough moving into the SE USA in a few days. Must be what is moving in on Toronto.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
49. Melagoo
4:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I think we're in for a pounding ... Cold front is going to move trough and the air is like soup ...

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport 12:00 PM EDT Monday 9 July 2007
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy

Temperature
89F
Pressure/ Tendency
29.77 inches↑
Visibility
15 miles
Humidity
60 %
Humidex
108F
Dewpoint
74F
Wind
W 13 mph gust 20 mph
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48. IKE
11:03 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
I noticed yesterday on the GFS runs...it showed the Bermuda/Azores high building to 1038mb within 2 weeks.
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47. IKE
11:02 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
Check out the dewpoint in Grenada...with rain moving in from the tropical disturbance...

"Observed at: Point Salines, GD
Elevation: 23 ft
[Scattered Clouds]
88 F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 75%
Dew Point: 79 F
Wind: 17 mph from the East
Pressure: - (Steady)
Heat Index: 102 F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 14 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Scattered Clouds 3800 ft
(Above Ground Level)"..........


Bad hair day!
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46. SavannahStorm
4:00 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I've also been noticing that the Nogaps and UKmet have been building abnormally low pressure just inland right along the African coast in 2-4 days. That could be the start of the Cape Verde tropical wave express.
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45. IKE
10:55 AM CDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: SavannahStorm at 10:53 AM CDT on July 09, 2007.
hh93- there's a nice little wave coming off the coast now. However, it is surrounded to the north and west by a large cloud of dust. If it can slow down and stay behind that dry air, it might have a chance. Otherwise it'll get choked off.


That wave might be what the GFS is picking up on...shows it around 40W in 3-4 days.
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44. SavannahStorm
3:51 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
hh93- there's a nice little wave coming off the coast now. However, it is surrounded to the north and west by a large cloud of dust. If it can slow down and stay behind that dry air, it might have a chance. Otherwise it'll get choked off.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg
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41. louisianaweatherguy
3:39 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hi everyone... What do ya'll think about the wave about to enter the Caribbean?
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40. nash28
3:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Lunch time for me.

Back in a bit.
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39. hurricane10
11:29 AM EDT on July 09, 2007
!!!!!tropics chat!!!!!! would you like to talk about the tropics if so meet me in the tropics chat room
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38. ClearH2OFla
11:28 AM EDT on July 09, 2007
Good Morning all anything brewing in the atl or CARRb
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37. moonlightcowboy
3:27 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Later, Niceville. Me, too!
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36. MrNiceville
3:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Well, gotta go earn some green to pay for this HSI (and the mortgage, and the groceries, and the kids' latest fads...) Have a good day, all and thanks for the MJO info - I'll be checking in later...
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34. MrNiceville
3:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Thanks Storm - ignore the last question in my previous post. refresh-delay/overlap...
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.