More heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

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An assessment team from NOAA headquarters returns to the National Hurricane Center today to interview staffers and director Bill Proenza about the on-going upheaval at the center. Last week, most of the senior staff called for Mr. Proenza to step down. I continue to support the senior staff on this issue, as detailed in a blog from last week. It's up to the NOAA assessment team to sort things out now, which will not be easy. I hope that the NOAA assessment team fairly considers the evidence, and that wisdom prevails in this unfortunate conflict.

Tropical Update
Fortunately for all concerned, the tropical Atlantic is very quiet at present. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models hint at anything developing over the coming week. It's a different story in the Pacific, where tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to become the season's first Category 3 or higher typhoon. Man-Yi could threaten Japan late this week.

More heat
Friday's high temperature of 129 degrees in Death Valley was only five degrees away from the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America--the 134 degrees (you guessed it) in Death Valley, back on July 10, 1913. Temperatures cooled off over the weekend, but not a lot--Sunday's high was 120 degrees (but it was a "dry" heat!) The heat will continue over the West this week, but we have likely witnessed the peak temperatures from this heat wave. With thunderstorm activity expected to pick up this week across the West, expect plenty of lightning-triggered fires to erupt. Utah is already reporting its biggest forest fire in history, and we can expect one of the worst summer fire seasons on record across the Western U.S.

June wasn't exceptionally hot across the U.S.--the National Climatic Data Center reported that June 2007 was the 23rd warmest and 33rd driest June in the historical record (since 1895). The period January - June was the 18th warmest on record. July will probably not set any heat records for the U.S. as a whole, despite the Western heat wave, since a major trough of low pressure is forecast to bring unseasonably cool air across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.

Good-bye, Margie!
View From the Surface blogger Margie Kieper is retiring from blogging as of today. She wants to focus her energies on contributing to the science of tropical meteorology, and hopes to become a co-author on scholarly journal articles. Margie is one of the best researchers I've worked with, and I'm sure she'll do well. We'll miss her thorough and informative blog posts!

Jeff Masters

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134. moonlightcowboy
5:47 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Okay, with all this about the super typhoon and how big it is, I want to ask--What has been the "largest, not strongest storm in the AB?

TIP with 1350 miles in diameter = largest storm in the PB
Storm in "miles" in diameter? = largest storm in the AB

There've been a couple of guesses: Carla, Gilbert...can't find this kind of data, so just curious. TIA
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
133. Tropicnerd13
5:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
seems like we dont have to worry about us getting a storm that big. imagine what that would be like. it would effect the entire gulf coast and give us massive flooding! that would suck. are any of you professionals on this blog commentary? when i go to college i am going to study to become a meteorologist so i can work on the weather channel and knock some sence in to their heads so that they dont advertize cruising weather instead of tropical weater.
132. nash28
5:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Our season will become active, that's a given. Where the formation of these systems occurs will be even more paramount, because anything that forms west of 65W around the 10N Lat line, is more likely to not recurve, because it will not have enough latitude to be affected by any troughs.

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
131. weatherboykris
5:46 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

I still believe we will see an acitve season in 2007 number wise but were they track is really anybodys guess.


That's true adrian.The steering currents that will be here in August and September can't be determined yet.
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130. tropicfreak
1:45 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Were you guys talking about the wave that just came off of africa
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129. wunderwomen
1:44 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
you know what sucks is when ever a hurricane comes it likes to come in August well my birthday is August 27th so i get to look forward to having a hurricane hit sometime near my birthday lol i needed to vent i dont know why i chose that subject but i did

so hello everyone how is youre afternoon going?
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128. weatherboykris
5:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Adrian,hate to disagree with you,but the GFS shows the BH high situated right over Florida near 30N,with an easterly flow that would prevent recurving systems.

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127. hurricane23
1:42 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
I still believe we will see an acitve season in 2007 number wise but were they track is really anybodys guess.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
126. Tropicnerd13
5:42 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
weatherman, the little blob next to south america and the blob under mexico near 100 west.
124. moonlightcowboy
5:42 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Adrian, "...a displaced bermuda high in the long range..." ???

...displaced where, when? tia
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
121. Tropicnerd13
5:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
i just know that im not going to asia anytime soon. i bet it will even effect russia somehow. is there a tropical storm in the eastern pacific? Link it sure looks like one. oh, about ten minutes until the tropical update on twc. ill sum it up for you in advance. dramatic music. "hello there. looks like cruising weather in the bahamas and the carribean is great. dont forget to pack some head on and activ on just in case you get muscle pains sitting in the sun!" then some activ on commercial comes on.
120. tropicfreak
1:36 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
East Atlantic

Are these the 3 waves you were talking about?
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119. palmettobug53
5:38 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Local observation: It's as muggy as a hot, wet, wool blanket out there. Just did my lunchtime walk... or stroll. About all I was able to do. I don't know how those folks with landscaping, construction, etc. can do it! Yeeesh!
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118. hurricane23
1:39 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
I also see the GFS continues to show trofiness along the east coast and a displaced bermuda high in the long range.

We'll see.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
116. hurricane23
1:36 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Yes this will be a super typhoon in time...The banding on this monster is what i find the most impressive.

banding
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
115. stormybil
5:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
so today we are watching 3 waves and the one off africa is the favotie to develope correct ?
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114. cchsweatherman
5:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Tropicnerd13, what is there to look at on that image? I don't see anything I should be keeping an eye on there.
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113. cchsweatherman
5:31 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Bobw999, all I have to say is HOLY S#!T!!!! That is one powerful beast. Look at all the deep, deep convection. Someone is about to get raped if they cross paths with this storm.
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112. hurricane23
1:27 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Good afternoon..

The tropical atlantic remains quite and from the look of things i see this continueing through the end of july.

Also wanted to mention things continue to cool in the Central Pacific which might indeed indicate the true arrival of nina across the atlantic basin in the coming weeks.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
111. bobw999
1:30 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Man-yi Link
110. cchsweatherman
5:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
It looks like the waves are coming off Africa with higher frequency now. It's only a matter of time before one of them develops into a TD or TS. maybe we have the first candidate coming off Africa now. Will have to watch it. There is great news for Floridians as Lake Okeechobee has gone up to 9.05 feet and is slowly climbing now. Looks like we are slowly, but surely reversing this drought.
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109. Tropicnerd13
5:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
hey guys, im back. well, does anyone think the blob next to south america will develope? i give it a 10-20% chance. i updated my blog. take a look at this Link
108. Melagoo
5:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I think it's a good day for stormchasing!

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107. bobw999
1:23 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
No 96L here or here.
106. stormybil
5:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

and what about the one off africa can it form now Link
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105. stormybil
5:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
morning everyone . anyway is that wave by lesser antilies going to sneak into the car. looks like its heading there now and staying under the dry air . and if it does hows the sheer will this wave develope there thanks .
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104. weatherboykris
5:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
What STL said too,LOL.Sorry for the double post.
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101. weatherboykris
5:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
.
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100. weatherboykris
5:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I had thought all you needed was low sheer and warm ocean waters for a storm to develop.

You do michael,and that's why through late August and Early October,storms can(and do) form,even in unfavorable MJO conditions.What the MJO does is increase upper level divergence and decrease shear.During the early and late times of seasons,it brings those things down to sufficient values.But during the peak,shear is already sufficient,and the tropical waves have such strong convergence associated with them they create upper divergence on their own,so the MJO isn't as influential.
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98. FLfishyweather
5:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hey jim [I'm might just call you jim instead of nash] when is the next new storm stories? Or is that viewers favorite thing still going?
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96. weatherboykris
5:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
It tends to have more of an effect on early and late seasonal activity than during the peak months of late August through Early October.
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95. weatherboykris
5:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
.
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94. Acesover8s
1:12 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Dan I see that! maybe an oil rig fire. Don't know
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93. FLfishyweather
5:12 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I don't know about anyone else, but I will be keeping an eye on the gulf the week or so.
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92. nash28
5:12 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
It stands for the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
91. FLfishyweather
5:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
There is no such thing as a stupid question.
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90. DunedinDan
1:12 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Is this just a small cloud in the center of the gulf? The loop makes it look like a plume of smoke heading northeast... weird... It is starting to fade so look quick :)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html
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88. FLfishyweather
5:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Nash, you still sound like jim cantore, not like that's an insult or anything.
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87. Drakoen
5:08 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
nash isn't the MJO suppose to be here by the 12th of july and remain that way for a few weeks?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
86. nash28
5:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
As I said yesterday, enjoy the relative quiet in the tropics right now, because by the third week of this month, things will most certainly become more active. The MJO should be planted in the ATL basin by then. The only question that remains is what the shear levels and moisture content will be like....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
85. Drakoen
5:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
the CMC still shows something circular moving in the general direction of the Caribbean as of the 12z run. Just metioning it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
84. FLfishyweather
5:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Shear will continue to stay fairly low in the GOM for a while...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.