More heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

An assessment team from NOAA headquarters returns to the National Hurricane Center today to interview staffers and director Bill Proenza about the on-going upheaval at the center. Last week, most of the senior staff called for Mr. Proenza to step down. I continue to support the senior staff on this issue, as detailed in a blog from last week. It's up to the NOAA assessment team to sort things out now, which will not be easy. I hope that the NOAA assessment team fairly considers the evidence, and that wisdom prevails in this unfortunate conflict.

Tropical Update
Fortunately for all concerned, the tropical Atlantic is very quiet at present. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models hint at anything developing over the coming week. It's a different story in the Pacific, where tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to become the season's first Category 3 or higher typhoon. Man-Yi could threaten Japan late this week.

More heat
Friday's high temperature of 129 degrees in Death Valley was only five degrees away from the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America--the 134 degrees (you guessed it) in Death Valley, back on July 10, 1913. Temperatures cooled off over the weekend, but not a lot--Sunday's high was 120 degrees (but it was a "dry" heat!) The heat will continue over the West this week, but we have likely witnessed the peak temperatures from this heat wave. With thunderstorm activity expected to pick up this week across the West, expect plenty of lightning-triggered fires to erupt. Utah is already reporting its biggest forest fire in history, and we can expect one of the worst summer fire seasons on record across the Western U.S.

June wasn't exceptionally hot across the U.S.--the National Climatic Data Center reported that June 2007 was the 23rd warmest and 33rd driest June in the historical record (since 1895). The period January - June was the 18th warmest on record. July will probably not set any heat records for the U.S. as a whole, despite the Western heat wave, since a major trough of low pressure is forecast to bring unseasonably cool air across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.

Good-bye, Margie!
View From the Surface blogger Margie Kieper is retiring from blogging as of today. She wants to focus her energies on contributing to the science of tropical meteorology, and hopes to become a co-author on scholarly journal articles. Margie is one of the best researchers I've worked with, and I'm sure she'll do well. We'll miss her thorough and informative blog posts!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 184 - 134

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

184. nash28
6:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Brandon may be well inland, but I would not stick around for a CAT4 or CAT5. It's not worth it. New home or not, with sustained winds of 130+ miles per hour, most roofs will be relocated.

Smart thing to do is pack it up and head in the opposite direction of the hurricane.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
183. RL3AO
1:18 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
I can't find anything about it on the web, but I would guess Gilbert.
182. bobw999
2:15 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Randommichael- Yes your friend is safe. I live about 5 miles from the Atlantic side of Florida. My have was built in the 60's and I have been living in it since the 80's. Forty years of surviving hurricanes. May your house have the same luck.
181. Patchmedic
6:15 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hey Random Im I live in the Brandon area I am also a Firefighter with the city of Tampa and I think I would make my family leave for anything above a cat 3 I on the other hand must stay
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
180. RL3AO
1:17 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
I wouldn't advise it. If Tampa gets hit, it will flood like New Orleans and I wouldn't want to be there for the immediate aftermath.
179. HurricaneGeek
2:16 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
AB= Atlantic Basin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
177. moonlightcowboy
6:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I am asking about SIZE, not strength, not category, not pressure, etc...SIZE. Big difference.

TIP = TS force winds 1350 miles in diameter.
What Atlantic Basin storm had TS force winds extending furtherest to be the largest in miles wide diameter?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
176. HurricaneGeek
2:14 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
WOW!! cat 4 even!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
174. Jedkins
6:13 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 6:12 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Well, has there ever benn a major hurricane in June??



Yes there has, Jeff Masters had an article on one just about a week or 2 ago, it was a category 4 too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
173. bobw999
2:13 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Well, has there ever benn a major hurricane in June??

Yes. Hurricane Audrey 1957 with 145 MPH winds (cat 4).
172. RL3AO
1:13 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Audrey hit the Gulf Coast as a Cat 4 in June '57.
170. HurricaneGeek
2:12 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Well, has there ever benn a major hurricane in June??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
169. cchsweatherman
6:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
What is the site for the Canadian models? Thanks.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
168. nash28
6:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
It's nostalgia hour on the blog today:-)

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
167. bobw999
6:10 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
any of you remember emily? i know that it wasn't the strongest storm in 2005, sinse wilma took that spot, but how strong did it get?

160 MPH the strongest July hurricane.

She wasn't as large as Gilbert though.
166. RL3AO
1:10 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Emily was 160mph, 929mb.
165. Tropicnerd13
6:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
do any of you remember emily? i know that it wasn't the strongest storm in 2005, sinse wilma took that spot, but how strong did it get?
164. weatherboykris
6:09 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:58 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Kris something tells me this is only temporary and we will be right back to more trofs but we'll see as june and july in all honesty are not months to judge an entire hurricane season.Adrian


That something wouldn't be a bit of wishcasting,would it,LOL.Seriously,it's impossible to say how things will work out now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
163. bobw999
6:08 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hurricane Andrew Link
Hurricane Gilbert Link

Both cat 5.
162. moonlightcowboy
6:06 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Ok, so Wilma, may not be the largest? Then what other storm had TS force winds extending out greater than 860 miles? Landfall not required; but, would be interesting to know, too!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
161. Jedkins
6:02 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
it won't be as dry as forecasters say, I expect normal storm coverage by this weekend as trhe ridge breaks down and 2.00 inch PWATS return.


We are in July, and we are not in the same pattern as we were before. Storms will find a way to form and some places will still get soaked(like me this morning) just not nearly as many as their typically is over the next few days.

But trust me, the pattern has changed, this ridge won't hold firm more then a few days before it begins to break down and thunderstorm activity increases again by friday. Even untill then, about 30% coverage will still be in place, which isn't terrible.

And low level moisture will remain high, that combined with heavy soaking rain last couple weeks will keep fire danger very low.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
160. weatherboykris
6:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 6:02 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Big doesn't necessarily mean strong does it? I mean can't you have a very small compact storm that is very strong, and a big spread out storm that is relatively weak?


Generally speaking,a small storm is stronger than a big storm with the same pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
159. RL3AO
1:07 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Cyclone Tracy was the smallest cyclone with TS force winds extending out 30 miles. It was a Category 4 Cyclone.

1

1
157. stormybil
6:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
all the dry air is gone in the atl wow what a diffence now it very moist and if the africa wave get in it we can see somthing stay tuned might be conga time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
156. nash28
5:59 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
And again, troughs really only come into play if we have formation is the areas such as last year, with systems forming well out in the EATL near or above 15N. With the ridge constantly being eroded and the periphery well east of 65W, those storms curved away well before the U.S. coastline.

2004 and 2005 were not the same. We had the same troughiness in 2004, but the formation of most of the cyclones occured south of 15N and well west of 60W. This is why we had so many strikes in those two years, because the troughs were nowhere near far enough south to have any affect on the systems.

That's why I have been saying give me all the troughiness in the world. But it won't matter at all if we have systems form near the Caribbean as opposed to having all Cape Verde systems.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
155. bobw999
6:03 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Andrew was a small storm but it became a cat 5 monster. Wilma a large storm which also became a cat 5.
152. hurricane91
5:59 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Lake O is climbing back up, but this week S.fl and central Fl will not see the usuall rainy season pattern, a high pressure is bringing in dry air for thext 5-7 days, temps will be in the mid 90's, even on the coast and heat index will reach above 100 in most areas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
151. RL3AO
1:00 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Wilma would make sense considering it was the strongest.
150. moonlightcowboy
5:54 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Ok, then, is it Wilma? According to that, the storm was 860 miles wide with TS force winds.

Apples to apples: Tip with TS force winds to 1350 miles, makes Wilma 490 miles smaller, a full third smaller.

I'm surprised they're no ready statistics for this??
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
149. hurricane23
1:56 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Kris something tells me this is only temporary and we will be right back to more trofs but we'll see as june and july in all honesty are not months to judge an entire hurricane season.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
148. Tropicnerd13
5:57 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
ill be back in 15 min.
147. Tropicnerd13
5:50 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
i agree with random michael. if it can hold up until the gulf, i can see some developement, otherwise, it is dead. i say it is either going poof in the next 2 days or we have something to watch. i also think the african coast one looks impressive, but it has just came off. you never know until it has some time.
145. EdMahmoud
5:51 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
12Z Canadian Global suggests little wave near 7N, 35W will try to start developing as it approaches the islands early next weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
144. tropicfreak
1:51 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
thanks bil
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. hurricane23
1:51 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Actually micheal if you look at gilberts size its similar right now but all in all i say yes something with this size is possible in the atlantic basin.

size
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
142. RL3AO
12:48 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Just for some of you that still don't know how big Man-yi is, if you were to pick it up and place it in the Caribbean, you couldn't not put it in an area where it wouldn't touch land.
141. Chicklit
5:49 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Lookslike it's rockin' and rollin' off the African coast...very little dust or dry air...Anybody know what's ahead for these waves?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
140. Tropicnerd13
5:48 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
sucks for most of us. i agree nash. i do think it will be an active season, considering we have already had 2 tropical storms this season, and it is only july!
138. nash28
5:49 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
None of the waves are likely right now. Shear is still too high. Although I did notice the dry air really retreating in the ATL. What a difference a week makes:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
137. weatherboykris
5:48 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
moonlightcowboy,go to "hurricanecity.com",and click on the top tab that says "How large was it".The biggest storm was Gilbert.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
136. stormybil
5:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Are these the 3 waves you were talking about?

hey they are as follows
1- the wave by south america that 13 mention

2- the wave by the lesser antilies that looks like its going in the car.

3- the nw wave off africia around 10 that c2 news said could formed

which of these 3 are likely to form into somthing . thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
135. Chicklit
5:48 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
134. moonlightcowboy
5:47 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Okay, with all this about the super typhoon and how big it is, I want to ask--What has been the "largest, not strongest storm in the AB?

TIP with 1350 miles in diameter = largest storm in the PB
Storm in "miles" in diameter? = largest storm in the AB

There've been a couple of guesses: Carla, Gilbert...can't find this kind of data, so just curious. TIA
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

Viewing: 184 - 134

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.