More heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

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An assessment team from NOAA headquarters returns to the National Hurricane Center today to interview staffers and director Bill Proenza about the on-going upheaval at the center. Last week, most of the senior staff called for Mr. Proenza to step down. I continue to support the senior staff on this issue, as detailed in a blog from last week. It's up to the NOAA assessment team to sort things out now, which will not be easy. I hope that the NOAA assessment team fairly considers the evidence, and that wisdom prevails in this unfortunate conflict.

Tropical Update
Fortunately for all concerned, the tropical Atlantic is very quiet at present. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models hint at anything developing over the coming week. It's a different story in the Pacific, where tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to become the season's first Category 3 or higher typhoon. Man-Yi could threaten Japan late this week.

More heat
Friday's high temperature of 129 degrees in Death Valley was only five degrees away from the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America--the 134 degrees (you guessed it) in Death Valley, back on July 10, 1913. Temperatures cooled off over the weekend, but not a lot--Sunday's high was 120 degrees (but it was a "dry" heat!) The heat will continue over the West this week, but we have likely witnessed the peak temperatures from this heat wave. With thunderstorm activity expected to pick up this week across the West, expect plenty of lightning-triggered fires to erupt. Utah is already reporting its biggest forest fire in history, and we can expect one of the worst summer fire seasons on record across the Western U.S.

June wasn't exceptionally hot across the U.S.--the National Climatic Data Center reported that June 2007 was the 23rd warmest and 33rd driest June in the historical record (since 1895). The period January - June was the 18th warmest on record. July will probably not set any heat records for the U.S. as a whole, despite the Western heat wave, since a major trough of low pressure is forecast to bring unseasonably cool air across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.

Good-bye, Margie!
View From the Surface blogger Margie Kieper is retiring from blogging as of today. She wants to focus her energies on contributing to the science of tropical meteorology, and hopes to become a co-author on scholarly journal articles. Margie is one of the best researchers I've worked with, and I'm sure she'll do well. We'll miss her thorough and informative blog posts!

Jeff Masters

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233. Tropicnerd13
6:49 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
pat, who u talkin to?
232. Patrap
6:47 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
and its "QUIET".. not "quite" friend.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
231. Tropicnerd13
6:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
h23, what was andrew like?
230. Patrap
6:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007


"Lets hope for another quite one as there are folks still trying to put there lives back in order after katrina.Also i would like to point out part of the devastation caused in new orleans was man made.Just my opinion though."



Man-made..LOL..Thats a incorrect assessment er..Adrian .1000 plus folks didnt die from a man made event .And the dead dont have a voice so Im saying get your head out your south end and quit signing your name to every post like your a NHC forcaster..GET IT?..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
229. Altestic87
6:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Do you think that this African wave may be the next 93L type deal?
228. MrNiceville
6:43 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
It's not worth it, Michael. Just evacuate when told to do so. Atlanta might be extreme, but you could go to Lake City = just up 75 and landlocked.

I rode out Ivan in Niceville - emotionally draining is putting it mildly. I also went back into Mandeville 2 days after Katrina - it's psychologically difficult when you have personal interesets involved...
227. cchsweatherman
6:43 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
RL3AO, thank you very much. I have been looking for that for a while now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
226. bobw999
6:42 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Has anyone here ever ridden out a major hurricane and suffered a direct hit from 15-20 miles inland? If so, what is it like?

I survived Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 which was a cat 3. I live 5 miles from the coast. It wasn't bad since 2 weeks ago I was hit by Frances which did all the damage. There isn't much to do during a hurricane. If you have a TV that runs on batteries you just watch that as you here the wind and the rain outside. Its also dark once the power is out because the hurricane shutters don't allow much light. Once the storm is over you really can't explore the town. Theres trees all over the place, some isolated spots may have flooding and always watch out for the down power lines.
225. hurricane23
6:42 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
My experience with andrew's 150+mph winds was one i will never forget.

Lets hope for another quite one as there are folks still trying to put there lives back in order after katrina.Also i would like to point out part of the devastation caused in new orleans was man made.Just my opinion though.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
224. Tropicnerd13
6:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
random, no i havent, but i have camped at galveston beach when allison was just off shore. what happeded was we set up camp, then we went and picked up stuff off the beach, and i saw the storm, i told my friends, and they said "oh, it'll just be a little sprinkle." their tent blew over that night. it was actually fun with allison.
223. StoryOfTheCane
6:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
222. RL3AO
6:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
220. NormalGuy
6:39 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
no problem Man
219. cchsweatherman
6:38 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
What is the site to go to QuikScat? Thanks.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
218. nash28
6:38 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
There are several people on this blog and others that have ridden out major canes, and I have heard stories that will make your toenails curl.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
217. hurricane23
6:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:58 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Kris something tells me this is only temporary and we will be right back to more trofs but we'll see as june and july in all honesty are not months to judge an entire hurricane season.Adrian

That something wouldn't be a bit of wishcasting,would it,LOL.Seriously,it's impossible to say how things will work out now.

Hold on a second iam just basically stateing my opinion which as ive said iam going with the general trend the last 5-7 weeks.Trof or ridge its all about timeing really as a tropical cyclone is approaching as the atmosphere is always in a moving state.

The fact is there are no seasons identical when it comes to track.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
216. NormalGuy
6:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
TropicDork, you got it..oops sorry, TropicNerd
215. Tropicnerd13
6:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
that blob seems to be making the carribean moist from getting ripped up. i say if it does develop, it will have to do so really fast to stay in the atlantic. otherwise, it is something to watch for mexico. oh, and normal guy, i was just kidding.
213. RL3AO
6:36 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Michael, Hurricane Charley in 2004 is a good example of this. When it was about 12 hours away from landfall it was a Cat 2. People were expecting a Cat 2. Charley then rapidly intensified and made landfall as a Cat 4. If a storm was approaching I would leave, especially if I lived in Tampa.
212. nash28
6:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Great find STL!! That really illustrates that a constant wave of troughs coming off the E. Coast really doesn't amount to much when you have formation that is far enough south and west.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
211. HurricaneGeek
6:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
There is an ok lookig blob just to the N of C america...what do u think of it...i saw a quik scat of it w/ winds of 20-25knots
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
210. Tropicnerd13
6:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
thanks rl3ao. normull goi, wuzz u b tlkins boot?
209. bobw999
6:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Don't remind me of Frances nash........

Also concerning Hurricane evacuations. When Wilma made landfall in SW Florida she was a cat 3, by the time she made it to my house on the east coast she was a cat 2. Broward county (Ft. Lauderdale) got pounded. So a storms speed is important when it comes to intensity over land.
208. Jedkins
6:31 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 6:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

And if it is one of those slow movers like Frances was, you will get POUNDED and hear the most eeire noises for around 20 hrs. After a while, you begin to get emotionally drained.





Oh ya, we had hurricane force conditions here in pinnelas county from frances at times, hours and hours of pounding winds and rain, that storm would just never quit.
207. moonlightcowboy
6:31 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Jedkins at 6:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
yep, if its a category 3 or better, just leave.


Even a a hurricane with a true intensity of a category 1 or 2 is pretty rough, but ya, that would be safe to stay at his house.


...I know Jed means well; but, that is NOT good advice. The RULE is LISTEN to your local authorities! If they say evac, then evac. Have a plan ready for evac. A CAT 1 storm, can turn into a CAT 3 storm in just a short time. Be prepared and listen to your authorities.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
205. nash28
6:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
And if it is one of those slow movers like Frances was, you will get POUNDED and hear the most eeire noises for around 20 hrs. After a while, you begin to get emotionally drained.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
204. Tropicnerd13
6:29 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
did you guys see the pacific blob about 500 miles west of california? looks like a storm...
202. RL3AO
6:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Tropicalnerd, if you want the strongest first storm of the season, Andrew would be my answer but there were multiple depressions and an unnamed subtropical storm before it in 1992.
201. Jedkins
6:28 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
yep, if its a category 3 or better, just leave.


Even a a hurricane with a true intensity of a category 1 or 2 is pretty rough, but ya, that would be safe to stay at his house.


But if it reaches major hurricane status, you reach a level you don't want to risk.
200. nash28
6:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Orlando didn't work out too well for those that fled Charley. You always want to get away from the storm. Atlanta is not a bad idea, and only 7 or 8 hours away.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
198. NormalGuy
6:02 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Can we please not judge the entire season based on what we saw the first month and 8 days.. This is going to be a late starter and is going to blow up when it does get going good. IMHO. And can we please slow down and read our posts before we put them out there with mis-spelled words. Huge pet peeve...LOL
197. nash28
6:24 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I'm just kidding around Moonlight:-) I just found it a little amusing:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
196. Jedkins
6:15 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 6:15 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

As some of you know, I live on Davis Islands in Tampa FL. Davis Islands are located just south of downtown in the bay. I would evacuate for any storm. I have a friend who lives in Brandon, FL which is about 10 miles inland. Would it be safe there? He isn't in a flood zone. His home is new, so I assume it could withstand the winds of even a Cat 4.




Don't ride out a category 4 in a house. Just leave, its not what you think, I don't care how strong his house is.


Not to mention, rainfall flooding is arisk as well, and when storm surge occurrs, it effects how much the drains can hold rainfall inland.

There would be too many dangers. DO NOT stay for a category 4.

Anyone who till has a sain mind that has gone through it themselves will say the same. Even if there house was sturdy, and they made it through.


Even then, you probably have heard of hurricanes producing tornados much have you? Well scientists have begun to realize they have a lot more torandos then orginally thought. There are tons of small very intense vorticies that can contain winds in excess of 300 mph in stronger hurricanes, even in weaker hurricanes, you will still have powerfull vorticies that can inflict massive damage beyond the "offical" intensity of the hurricane.


If yu've ever seen why after a hurricane 1 house might suffer massive damage while the one next to it, some structural damage, but not a complete mess, thats what its from, those vorticies are the culprit.


and you'll see that a lot after hurricanes, its not because the other house was weaker and the other was stronger. Ya thats possible, but almost all except a few homes that are custom in a home community are built all to the same standerd.



So ya man Just given ya a heads up, dont do it.
195. HurricaneGeek
2:23 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Yeah this friday is the 13th
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
194. Tropicnerd13
6:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
good answer rl3ao. i guess that we can answer my question with one that started with a.
193. moonlightcowboy
6:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Nash, sorry I even asked the question...lol.

Yesterday, we were talking about how large Man'yi is and compared to TIP...just made me curious as to the "largest" AB storm, is all. Apparently, there are no handy statistics to answer that question.

It's easy to find strength and all that. Didn't mean to kick off trivia....sorry, back to blob watching now...lol.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
192. nash28
6:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hurricane Charley was Friday August 13, 2004.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
191. RL3AO
1:22 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Probably bil.
190. stormybil
6:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
was there ever a friday the 13 storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
189. bobw999
2:20 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Hurricane Andrew damage in homestead Link

At the time of landfall Andrew was a cat 5.
188. nash28
6:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Man, it's like the Hurricane Trivial Pursuit hour on here.

Well, when it's quiet, you gotta pass the time somehow:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
187. moonlightcowboy
6:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Do you know how wide Gilbert was? TS force winds, now, to compare apples to apples as TIP had TS force winds extending to 1350 miles.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
186. Tropicnerd13
6:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
what was the strongest storm in the ab to start the season off?
184. nash28
6:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Brandon may be well inland, but I would not stick around for a CAT4 or CAT5. It's not worth it. New home or not, with sustained winds of 130+ miles per hour, most roofs will be relocated.

Smart thing to do is pack it up and head in the opposite direction of the hurricane.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.