More heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

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An assessment team from NOAA headquarters returns to the National Hurricane Center today to interview staffers and director Bill Proenza about the on-going upheaval at the center. Last week, most of the senior staff called for Mr. Proenza to step down. I continue to support the senior staff on this issue, as detailed in a blog from last week. It's up to the NOAA assessment team to sort things out now, which will not be easy. I hope that the NOAA assessment team fairly considers the evidence, and that wisdom prevails in this unfortunate conflict.

Tropical Update
Fortunately for all concerned, the tropical Atlantic is very quiet at present. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models hint at anything developing over the coming week. It's a different story in the Pacific, where tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to become the season's first Category 3 or higher typhoon. Man-Yi could threaten Japan late this week.

More heat
Friday's high temperature of 129 degrees in Death Valley was only five degrees away from the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America--the 134 degrees (you guessed it) in Death Valley, back on July 10, 1913. Temperatures cooled off over the weekend, but not a lot--Sunday's high was 120 degrees (but it was a "dry" heat!) The heat will continue over the West this week, but we have likely witnessed the peak temperatures from this heat wave. With thunderstorm activity expected to pick up this week across the West, expect plenty of lightning-triggered fires to erupt. Utah is already reporting its biggest forest fire in history, and we can expect one of the worst summer fire seasons on record across the Western U.S.

June wasn't exceptionally hot across the U.S.--the National Climatic Data Center reported that June 2007 was the 23rd warmest and 33rd driest June in the historical record (since 1895). The period January - June was the 18th warmest on record. July will probably not set any heat records for the U.S. as a whole, despite the Western heat wave, since a major trough of low pressure is forecast to bring unseasonably cool air across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.

Good-bye, Margie!
View From the Surface blogger Margie Kieper is retiring from blogging as of today. She wants to focus her energies on contributing to the science of tropical meteorology, and hopes to become a co-author on scholarly journal articles. Margie is one of the best researchers I've worked with, and I'm sure she'll do well. We'll miss her thorough and informative blog posts!

Jeff Masters

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284. cantstopme15
7:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Could someone please tell me why every tropical wave keeps dying before reaching the Carribean?
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283. hurricane23
3:24 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 3:20 PM EDT on July 09, 2007.

Are you serious??

Iam not interested in seeing anything and trust me iam fully aware of the magnitude of what took place down there.Ive been through a few hurricanes myself and at one time lost everything during andrew.

And your answer is YES i have been there 5 times since katrina and like i said it hit me on a personal level as i lost some family.

Do me a favor can we change the subject cause it took me a long time to move on from the experience.Thanks
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282. Patrap
2:23 PM CDT on July 09, 2007

23- I believe what has upset Pat was your statement that the calamity was in part "man made". Just my thoughts...



Great obs nash..I relent my stance. Horse's corraled too. Thanks for the observation.
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281. nash28
7:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
With one look at the SST's and the basically "virgin waters" in the GOMEX, we don't want ANY storm bathing in that region.

Trouble waiting to happen.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
280. Patrap
2:22 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
I never post the "other pics "of calamity here. I have files of them. From my own, .. and AP sources that were embedded with us...Canes aint all the flurry and excitement that one experiences as a child. In stark reality..its a smelly..rotten thing to contend with. I never again hope a single American has to see the Woe and misery these eyes saw those 19days.I wouldnt wish it on an enemy. No sir.
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279. Tropicnerd13
7:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
sorry frank, i dont think we want a man yi in the gulf. i already posted what that would be like.
278. nash28
7:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Ok, not to butt in, but I can't help myself....

23- I believe what has upset Pat was your statement that the calamity was in part "man made". Just my thoughts...

Ok, I am getting out of it now.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
277. moonlightcowboy
7:20 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
LOL, Nash...the thing is, I agree with you most of the time...lol.

...and PATRAP, YES, the MS coast looked like an atom bomb had gone off. In many ways in places, it still does.

...I had relatives there, devastating is a kind word. And, for me, such great times/memories at; but not ONE left of the many restaurants all the way down the coastline. Not one.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
275. nash28
7:19 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Good to see you Ric!

Ironic timing:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
274. Tropicnerd13
7:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
that picture that storyofthecane put up looks impressive. any of those look like they will develop?
273. franck
7:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
You guys speculating on storm size potential? Throw out prior constraints. If trends persist for the next five years as the past five, why not a storm as large as the Gulf itself?
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272. nash28
7:18 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Yeah, I know Moonlight! Who would have ever guessed that.

I tend to be pretty bad on the weekends after several beers....

hey, at least I admit it:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
271. Patrap
2:16 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
You havent a clue as to what occured here during and after Katrina.Have you visited? HAve you seen the Coastal Miss destruction?..its impact that counts..not the MPH ,not the surge.
Impact .....

The calamity begins once the winds die down.
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270. Tropicnerd13
7:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
you want a storm, look at that link that i put up earlier for mexico. there is a storm out there. Link
269. ricderr
7:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Well, I step aside for a minute and come back to find the chipiness setting in on the blog.

1

hey nash...things are always fun when chip and dale are around
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268. nash28
7:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
For anyone interested, just a little fun fact....

Exactly one month from now is when we had our third named storm of the 2004 season...

So basically, don't be surprised if we see nothing for the next three to four weeks.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
267. yankinfla
7:11 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
I rode out IVan in Pensacola, 3 houses south of I10. What a trip that was, and it was my first and will be the last I ride out. Wife is from here and didnt think we even needed to board up. Glad I decided to do it anyway. The Tv station went out in the middle of the storm, most of the radio stations also lost their towers, so we had 2 radio stations left. They had no idea what was going on they just took calls from people needing to talk. That even went on for a few days after. Kept hearing crashes and other noices, thought most of the house was gone, luckily not. Went out at first light when it was down to 60 mph winds and walked the neighborhood, it was like a bad dream. Absolutely quiet, no one moving around. Just destruction. Still not sure what Ivan was, a 2, 3, or 4. They keep dropping it over the years.
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266. moonlightcowboy
7:16 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Nash, get outta town!!! You instigate? No way! LOL
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
265. Patrap
2:14 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
But you constantly try to compare storms 23.
Bad Karma.
And as for the dead from Katrina.
What would like to know..what would you like to see?
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264. nash28
7:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Well, I know from plenty of experience things can get a little heated on here, especially when we have nothing in our basin to track.

And I fully admit to being the instigator a few times....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
263. hurricane23
3:14 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 3:13 PM EDT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
Adrian..your so wrong I wont even comment. As one who was here in New Orleans till Sept 16th,05.

Not a problem....

I respect your opinion.But no need to be rude.

Bryan norcross has an a great explanation on what iam talking about on his book.
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262. hurricane23
3:11 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
.
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261. Patrap
2:11 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Adrian..your so wrong I wont even comment. As one who was here in New Orleans till Sept 16th,05.
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260. bobw999
3:10 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Latest bulletin from Guam:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 AM GUAM LST TUE JUL 10 2007

...TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE.

AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS
140 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP
260 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU
410 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 4 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 11.8 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 138.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST.

$$

STANKO

Next advisory at 6:00 pm ET.
259. Patrap
2:09 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
West-PAcific FUll disk IR

Link
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258. nash28
7:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Well, I step aside for a minute and come back to find the chipiness setting in on the blog.

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
257. moonlightcowboy
7:07 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Altestic87 at 7:05 PM GMT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
I am tired of Typhoon Man_Yi I want something in Our Basin


...suggest an amusement park. Cheap thrills a minute there!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
256. hurricane23
3:07 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Katrina's winds in new orleans were not the real cause of that horrible devastation that took place.Its unlikely that winds higher the cat2 were exprienced infact on the east side of new orleans i believe the highest winds measured were at cat1 intensity.

The evidence that i have seen is that the storm surge rose to less than cat2 levels.
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255. RL3AO
2:07 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
The JMA had it at 40.
254. Altestic87
3:06 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
UP to 50 konts? LOL, that means it weakened.
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253. RL3AO
2:04 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
The JMA has Man-yi up to 50kts, 985mb.
252. coastrat
7:04 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Has anyone here ever ridden out a major hurricane and suffered a direct hit from 15-20 miles inland? If so, what is it like?

I live 5 miles from the coast in Biloxi - I didn't stay during Katrina. I know many people that did stay - it was terrible.

NEVER stay on a coastline if a category 2 or better is coming. I went 60 miles north to my parents and got hit there by a Katrina as a high Cat 1. It was blowing down trees, ripping off roofs and doing major damage.

They are unpredictable at best and deadly at worst. The water went inland almost a mile and up other connecting water 3 miles.
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251. Altestic87
3:04 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
I am tired of Typhoon Man_Yi I want something in Our Basin
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249. Altestic87
3:01 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
cmon we need something in our basin to discuss
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248. Tropicnerd13
6:58 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
the one closest to us, trollman. LOL.
247. Altestic87
2:59 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
yes there are its hurricane season theres always an area of interest

Like I pointed out, the Barbados one and the Senegal one.
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246. bobw999
2:58 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
I asked you a question...which area in the Tatl has the best chance for development?

No areas of interest currently.
245. Altestic87
2:57 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
I asked you a question...which area in the Tatl has the best chance for development?
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244. Patrap
1:55 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Some have as much tact as a rusty nail...
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243. bobw999
2:54 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
I have some relatives in Louisiana that helped out after Katrina. They said the damage was horrible and sad.
242. Patchmedic
6:49 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Hey Random
Get your self a tow behind camper and just drive you can pretty much stop anywhere you feel its safe.I know for a fact that Wal-Mart will let you stay in there parking lot. And there is pretty much a Wal-Mart anywhere you go
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
241. RL3AO
1:53 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Altestic is a troll. He likes to see hurricanes even though they cause damage and death.
240. Patrap
1:51 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
I suggest those who flocked to the BarometerBob show a few weeks back to hear the NHC directors interview ,tune in this thursday night .


The Barometer Bob Show for July 12, 2007!

Bobs guest will be Dr Robert Atlas, Dr. Robert Atlas is the former Chief Meteorologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and is currently the Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Fla. Some of the areas he focuses his current research on include the prediction, movement and strengthening of hurricanes. Atlas has worked with both satellite data and computer models as a means to study these hurricane behaviors.
We will discuss the QuickScat Satelitte, what it is, what it does, and about the studies on it's performance.
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239. Tropicnerd13
6:52 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
i dont know why he would either. i think maybe because it gives you things to track? that is kind of a stupid reason, though.
238. Altestic87
2:52 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
hurricanes are awesome

Which area looks good for development? The one just east of the islands or the one off Africa?
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237. hurricane23
2:46 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 2:45 PM EDT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
Man-made..LOL..Thats a incorrect assessment er..Adrian .1000 plus folks didnt die from a man made event .And the dead dont have a voice so Im saying get your head out your south end and quit signing your name to every post like your a NHC forcaster..GET IT?..

Excuse me!!!!

I have family that i lost in new orleans with katrina and i know many people that had there life changed for ever.I have the right to state my opinion as many times as i want and if for some reason you disagree with it just ignore it and dont attack me.

We are all here to learn and help each other.Adrian
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235. Tropicnerd13
6:49 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
calm down calm down. lets just watch the head on commercial and the cruising weather update... um, uh, i mean the tropical update...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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