More heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:40 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

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An assessment team from NOAA headquarters returns to the National Hurricane Center today to interview staffers and director Bill Proenza about the on-going upheaval at the center. Last week, most of the senior staff called for Mr. Proenza to step down. I continue to support the senior staff on this issue, as detailed in a blog from last week. It's up to the NOAA assessment team to sort things out now, which will not be easy. I hope that the NOAA assessment team fairly considers the evidence, and that wisdom prevails in this unfortunate conflict.

Tropical Update
Fortunately for all concerned, the tropical Atlantic is very quiet at present. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models hint at anything developing over the coming week. It's a different story in the Pacific, where tropical Storm Man-Yi is expected to become the season's first Category 3 or higher typhoon. Man-Yi could threaten Japan late this week.

More heat
Friday's high temperature of 129 degrees in Death Valley was only five degrees away from the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America--the 134 degrees (you guessed it) in Death Valley, back on July 10, 1913. Temperatures cooled off over the weekend, but not a lot--Sunday's high was 120 degrees (but it was a "dry" heat!) The heat will continue over the West this week, but we have likely witnessed the peak temperatures from this heat wave. With thunderstorm activity expected to pick up this week across the West, expect plenty of lightning-triggered fires to erupt. Utah is already reporting its biggest forest fire in history, and we can expect one of the worst summer fire seasons on record across the Western U.S.

June wasn't exceptionally hot across the U.S.--the National Climatic Data Center reported that June 2007 was the 23rd warmest and 33rd driest June in the historical record (since 1895). The period January - June was the 18th warmest on record. July will probably not set any heat records for the U.S. as a whole, despite the Western heat wave, since a major trough of low pressure is forecast to bring unseasonably cool air across the Midwest and Northeast later this week.

Good-bye, Margie!
View From the Surface blogger Margie Kieper is retiring from blogging as of today. She wants to focus her energies on contributing to the science of tropical meteorology, and hopes to become a co-author on scholarly journal articles. Margie is one of the best researchers I've worked with, and I'm sure she'll do well. We'll miss her thorough and informative blog posts!

Jeff Masters

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334. sandcrab39565
2:49 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Not a meterologist but I am a Federally certified emergency manager and all I have to say is lets hope this settles things down my job strongly depends on thier forcasts.
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333. IKE
2:50 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: ricderr at 2:50 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.
ok....now i've been assured by two people he'll do a great job..but still no reasoning why......


You can listen to him and realize the man has a lot of knowledge....he's smart!
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332. quakeman55
7:50 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
HE'S OUT!! HE'S OUT!! HE'S STEPPED DOWN!!!

"And you are outta here!"
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331. ricderr
7:49 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
ok....now i've been assured by two people he'll do a great job..but still no reasoning why......
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330. VoirDire
7:48 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Moonlightcowboy made an interesting comment about a GOM Cat 1 or 2 storm being as damaging as a larger cane hitting other areas. I fully agree - from what I see living in Redington Beach just north of St. Pete, Fl a minor Cat 1 would cause devestating damage. Many people living here come from the Mid-West and have no idea how much power a storm surge has. Before living on the water I used to keep a boat at a local city owned marina - the cleats and docks were less sturdy than what I used to see in Baltimore. Light poles are barely bolted to the docks and when a blow hits no one bothers to pick up loose items littering the marina yard. Many houses are only 5 feet above sea level and the older ones ( the majority) are flimsy and just slapped together.

In contrast, at my second house in St. Augsutine the marinas have huge cleats and the houses are higher above mean tide and are built way better. Seems people living on the Atlantic are much more respectful of the power of the seas and winds.
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329. Tropicnerd13
7:48 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
alright. back to the tropics. have any of you seen the blob in the east pacific? im not talking about the wimpy one. there is one that looks like a tropical storm.Link you dont have to have a degree to know your stuff. im just asking. it kind of boosts your rep if you do, though. more people believe what you are saying.
328. hurricane23
3:46 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: ricderr at 3:45 PM EDT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
To be honest ED will do an awsome job while he is at that position.


why do you say that 23?

With his 16 years at the NHC he Knows electronics and support systems inside out.He has also worked as a hurricane specialist before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch.

And one of the most important reason of all is the entire supporting cast loves working with him.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13766
327. IKE
2:47 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Ed Rappaport seems like a knowledgeable person. Glad he got the job.

Did Proenza finally give in?
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326. Patrap
2:48 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
More like this maybe nash,..Link
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325. Drakoen
7:46 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: ricderr at 7:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

To be honest ED will do an awsome job while he is at that position.


why do you say that 23?


LOL if you know Rapaport you know he will do a good job.
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324. nash28
7:46 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
LMAO Pat!!!! I could just picture you in one of those commercials:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
323. Patrap
2:46 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Yeah 23. Im with it. I'Ll have more to say Thursday night .Tune in.
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322. bobw999
3:45 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
I knew Ed would replace him. No surprise there. They should make him permanent.
321. Patrap
2:44 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
I stayed in a FEMA trailer last night.(I stay in one every night,LOL),.. Kinda like a Holiday INN Express. But cleaner. Does that qualify?
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320. moonlightcowboy
7:45 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Nash is professional!...NOT, I mean nutty professor! lol, (jfK, Nash--don't get hot at me)!!!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
319. nash28
7:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Since when do you have to have a degree in meteorology to have a decent grasp of it?

I hate that argument. I know people with degrees that don't know their ass from their elbow, but they took tests really well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
318. ricderr
7:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
To be honest ED will do an awsome job while he is at that position.


why do you say that 23?
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317. hcubed
2:45 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
"Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:32 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.

Yes!!!

Ed Rappaport is now in command."


Why do I get the feeling that the satellite will not be mentioned again, and will probably die (right in the middle of the season), and the FIRST thing said will be "It's all Bush's fault, we told him it was going to fail at the beginning of the season."

Happy 200th, NOAA....
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316. hurricane23
3:44 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 3:43 PM EDT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
Looking forward to your pictures from all them New Orleans post Katrina visits 23. And the blog entry.

Your still with this lol....Wait for them.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13766
315. hurricanealley
7:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
fox news is showing it now
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314. Tropicnerd13
7:44 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
well, are any of you professional? do any of you have degrees in subjects that have to do with weather?
313. moonlightcowboy
7:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
"I'm not Rappaport!" lol, reminds me of Walter Matthau. (jfk)

...a new chief? Excellent, now maybe they can all get back to doing their jobs...serving the people!!!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
312. Patrap
2:42 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Looking forward to your pictures from all them New Orleans post Katrina visits 23. And the blog entry.
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311. Drakoen
7:42 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
now we can get back to buisness with the hurricane season. Thankfully Rapaport will be the NHC director. He will do a great job.
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310. Patrap
2:41 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
6 The New NHC director

Ed Rappaport
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309. weathermanwannabe
3:39 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Glad to see that this occurred during this "lull" in the season; now they can settle down and get back to business. BTW, I have always liked the "old" crew over there which includes Rappaport and Avila and friends.....Good Luck to all of them!......
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308. hurricane23
3:36 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
With his 16 years at the NHC he Knows electronics and support systems inside out.He has also worked as a hurricane specialist before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch.


I think he will do a great job.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13766
307. nash28
7:39 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Is it just me, or does that picture of Franklin look like Chevy Chase?
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
306. nash28
7:37 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
There isn't a damn thing on this yet on any of the major news networks.

But, I am happy. Bozo gone, good guy in place. Back to work.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
305. Patrap
2:36 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Now that THAT is over ,finally. I think the focus will,maybe ,kinda ...should shift back to the Hurricane season. And the Public welfare. It is the Mission.

So,good luck and a rally cry for the new NHC director.
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304. Drakoen
7:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2007.

Yes!!!

Ed Rappaport is now in command


ditto. Hes really good.
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303. hurricane23
3:35 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
To be honest ED will do an awsome job while he is at that position.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13766
302. Patrap
2:35 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Ed Rappaport is the 3rd one under Max here..
Link
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301. Tropicnerd13
7:35 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
for you guys saying that we might have a storm as big as the gulf, to me it seems like we dont have to worry about us getting an ab man yi. imagine what that would be like. it would effect the entire gulf coast and give us massive flooding! that would suck. are any of you professionals on this blog commentary? when i go to college i am going to study to become a meteorologist so i can work on the weather channel and knock some sence in to their heads so that they dont advertize cruising weather instead of tropical weather.
300. cchsweatherman
7:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
About damn time this controversy at the HNC gets put to rest so they can focus on their jobs to protect the people. Great decision by the NOAA.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
299. Patrap
2:33 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
The wunderground sure must be proud..
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298. Patrap
2:32 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
I knew it an hour ago..
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297. hurricane23
3:31 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Yes!!!

Ed Rappaport is now in command.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13766
296. Patrap
2:32 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Now you and Avila can run it 23..LOL..
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295. hurricane23
3:29 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
GOOD BYE BILL PROENZA!!

BREAKING NEWS ON CBS4...


CLICK HERE
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13766
294. moonlightcowboy
7:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Yep, Nash. You're right again about GOMEX waters. I tried to find an article yesterday, that I posted a month or so ago about how a CAT 1 or 2 storm here now could be as devastating, deadly as a CAT 3 or higher.

...trying to remember why, I think it sited:

1. Water is more shallow, (sediment, etc) so surge would be even worse.
2. Large number of people still in Fema housing.
3. Large number of people in the area from outside with no cane experience at all.
4. Gaping holes in the infrastructure from previous surge, meaning surge damage further inland.

...just a few that I can remember. A GOMEX storm on the MS coast is definitely NOT good!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
293. Tropicnerd13
7:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
we could use a head on commercial right about now. Link
292. Caymanite
7:23 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
For those of you discussing riding out hurricanes, I offer the following. I rode out Ivan in my house which is located on the ocean and experienced 160 mph winds gusting to 200 mph and a storm surge of over 12 ft.While I survived and experienced very little damage, it is not something that I will ever do again.Next time I am moving farther inland or leaving all together.It was by far the most frightning experience of my life and I never want to experience it again.
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291. hcubed
2:07 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
"Posted By: Patrap at 1:45 PM CDT on July 09, 2007.

"Lets hope for another quite one as there are folks still trying to put there lives back in order after katrina.Also i would like to point out part of the devastation caused in new orleans was man made.Just my opinion though."

Man-made..LOL..Thats a incorrect assessment er..Adrian .1000 plus folks didnt die from a man made event .And the dead dont have a voice so Im saying get your head out your south end and quit signing your name to every post like your a NHC forcaster..GET IT?.."


I agree with Adrian to a point... So many people in N.O. felt safe in the "walls" of the levees. If they knew of the weaknesses BEFORE the storm they would have left.

Also, so many on here keep telling us "prepare" and "evacuate". IMHO, so many N.O. residents did neither, setting up in places that were never intended to be shelters. A "shelter-of-last-resort" is just that, a place to fall back to, and leave when prudently safe. It was never intended for long term housing.

The city and state should be the first ones to prepare for their citizens.

How can people blame the Gov't and FEMA, when their own mayor and gov didn't prepare?
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290. cantstopme15
7:26 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Oh k.
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289. Patrap
2:07 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
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288. hurricane23
3:25 PM EDT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: cantstopme15 at 3:25 PM EDT on July 09, 2007. (hide)
Could someone please tell me why every tropical wave keeps dying before reaching the Carribean?

SAL + normal unfavorable conditions that take place at this time during any year.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13766
286. Patrap
2:25 PM CDT on July 09, 2007
Gee..Im touched. Funny you never looked me up here.
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285. nash28
7:25 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Shear, dry air, and sinking air.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
284. cantstopme15
7:21 PM GMT on July 09, 2007
Could someone please tell me why every tropical wave keeps dying before reaching the Carribean?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.