Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1636. bobw999
7:32 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Or am I allowed to post the CPAC Hurricane outlook since its not in the Atlantic Altestic87??
1635. Drakoen
11:31 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: Altestic87 at 11:31 PM GMT on July 08, 2007.

that is great news, Eye. Decreasing shear all over. 20 knots and decreasing over the system, but even 20 knots is considered "marginally" favorable.


it mean the shear has decreased that amount its not the actual amount of shear. That is of course if you are talking about the shear tendency map.
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1634. Alec
7:31 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
thats what i was thinking taz after you pointed that new pic out to us we were sleeping didnt notice it but you did you get 5 points good job

Taz gets points? since when did we gets points?LOL This isnt a game....
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1633. Tazmanian
4:30 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
and now are wave is 96L we sould keep a eye on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1632. bobw999
7:30 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
1000 AM HST SUN JUL 8 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A small area of disturbed weather is located about 1500 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system has some potential for development over the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 15 mph, towards the central north Pacific.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Tuesday morning.
1631. Altestic87
7:29 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
that is great news, Eye. Decreasing shear all over. 20 knots and decreasing over the system, but even 20 knots is considered "marginally" favorable.
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1629. IKE
6:29 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:27 PM CDT on July 08, 2007.
hey IKE is Altestic still here?


Yup...I've got him on hide though! LOL!
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1628. Drakoen
11:29 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Shear continues to decrease over the Caribbean. next week should be interesting.
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1627. stormybil
11:28 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
thats what i was thinking taz after you pointed that new pic out to us we were sleeping didnt notice it but you did you get 5 points good job
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1625. Alec
7:28 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
any way our new wave has been looking great all day lets see what it looks like tonight it might fire up more convection stay tuned

looks pitiful....
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1624. eye
11:28 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
looks to me that shear is mostly decreasing in the Carribean, just a lil high over the islands, but other than that, the pattern is decreasing in shear.
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1623. MrNiceville
11:24 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:23 PM CDT on July 08, 2007.
that being said the NAVY site needs to do something to make sure confusion doesnt happen

if they cant update it properly, maybe they should put up an error message


LMFAO!!!!

Guys - NMCI runs the show - they can't fight their way out of a paper bag. If the site went down on Friday, it won't be back up until Monday - bank on it. I hate those guys - they screwed up a good, solid network that the Marines owned and forced a second-hand, shoddy, POS down the Marines' throats...

Anyone wonder where I stand on that???

anyway - if there is an issue - NMCI doesn't have the where with all or the ability to fix it "after hours"
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1622. stormybil
11:26 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
any way our new wave has been looking great all day lets see what it looks like tonight it might fire up more convection stay tuned
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1621. bobw999
7:27 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
The Navy site still has 94W not 04W or Man-yi.
1620. Tazmanian
4:26 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
yes but the navy site is uesing 96L on are wave then calling it 97L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1618. Drakoen
11:27 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
lol jp everyone giving you a hard time?
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1617. Drakoen
11:26 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
This is the latest as of the 2100 UTC.
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1616. IKE
6:24 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
"Remember 96L had two surface lows? This disturbance is associated with 96L's second surface low, the one that lagged behind to the east."......

When did you dream that?
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1614. Alec
7:25 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Must be Al Gore's fault......LOL!
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1613. eye
11:25 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
taz is right
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1612. stormybil
11:24 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
This disturbed weather is unrelated other than the Navy sight hasn't removed the deceased 96L from their website.

ok the nhc removed it so this is a new system .
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1611. IKE
6:23 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:23 PM CDT on July 08, 2007.
that being said the NAVY site needs to do something to make sure confusion doesnt happen

if they cant update it properly, maybe they should put up an error message


The government! LOL! They need to do a better job then that.
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1610. Altestic87
7:19 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Remember 96L had two surface lows? This disturbance is associated with 96L's second surface low, the one that lagged behind to the east.
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1609. IKE
6:22 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
96L is dead. RIP on it.

This disturbed weather is unrelated other than the Navy sight hasn't removed the deceased 96L from their website.
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1608. stormybil
11:23 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
In other words, we wont see a cat5 form from that blob of clouds......

not but this is intersting im waitng for the pic with circles i bet you cant find 96l anymore . but maybe the navy says this new wave is part of it i dont know i doubt that i beleve its a whole new system .
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1606. Alec
7:21 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
i bet you cant find 96l anymore

common sense...because it DIED.....
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1605. IKE
6:20 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
That satellite is taking still frames every 30 minutes. It has nothing to do with the date(07-06-07), above it.
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1603. eye
11:19 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
i agree with taz
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1602. IKE
6:18 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
96L died just east of the islands...it got sheared to death. The disturbed weather moving into the islands is a different system entirely. Just like the next tropical storm won't be named Barry if it forms in the SE GOM. It's a different system. It'll be named Chantal.
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1600. sporteguy03
11:19 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Bermuda High must really be pushing West
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1599. stormybil
11:18 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
In other words, we wont see a cat5 form from that blob of clouds......

not but this is intersting im waitng for the pic with circles i bet you cant find 96l anymore .
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1597. sporteguy03
11:18 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
JP,
Wow it got dry in Central FL no rain today.
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1596. Tazmanian
4:17 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
they started re uesing 96L today look at the date it say 7-08-07 on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1595. Alec
7:16 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
In other words, we wont see a cat5 form from that blob of clouds......
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1593. Tazmanian
4:17 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
are new wave is now 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1592. stormybil
11:15 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
yes bill but why call it 97L if the wave is in the same stops where 96L ues to be

thats whats confusing me maybe some one could put the pic here and circle where is 96l and the new wave behind it . if these two arent one anyone ? that will help alot . but i thought 96l was way pass the islands by now and went west ?
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1591. ryang
7:12 PM AST on July 08, 2007
Right... So 96L is back...
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1590. Tazmanian
4:16 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
i think 96L is working this nic with are wave
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1588. IKE
6:15 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Easy answer...it's a different system. 96L died just east of Granada and Barbados.
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1587. Tazmanian
4:13 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
yes bill but why call it 97L if the wave is in the same stops where 96L ues to be
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

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