Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1734. Patrap
6:58 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Global Imagery

Link
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1733. Patrap
6:54 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500)
Satellite Meteorology

Link
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1732. SLU
7:46 PM AST on July 08, 2007
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 37W BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SSMI DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS IS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH SOME TURNING NEAR 11N. THE SAL
VERTICAL SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE ON THE 4TH OF
JULY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED ON THE 00Z SURFACE MAP.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 40W/41W IS RELOCATED
FURTHER W ALONG 51W BASED ON THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM THAT CLEARLY
SHOWS THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE...AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE CAYENNE VERTICAL
SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS JUST OVER THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.
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1731. stormybil
11:57 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
OK 8PM SAYS ITS A NEW WAVE OK RIGHT TAZ GOOD CALL BUT NOW WILL IT BE 97L SOON STAY TUNED
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1730. Tazmanian
4:57 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
AM MAD
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1729. EdMahmoud
11:52 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I don't know why, in the dead part of the season (climatologically less than 1 storm for the entire month) all this bother over little blobs, when the Canadian and ECMWF both suggest end of the week/early wekeend a major typhoon will threaten Japan.

I'll bet that satellite floater will be spectacular in about two days.
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1728. Drakoen
11:56 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: msphar at 11:55 PM GMT on July 08, 2007.

in any case dust is pressing the blob southwards, and wind shear is giving it a haircut before it reaches Pottery i


there is no dust. If there was it would not have been able to build that convection. the problem is the upper level winds.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
1726. RL3AO
6:56 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
The date is 06/0000z bil. It is 60 hours old.
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1725. stormybil
11:55 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Link

ABOVE JP
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1724. ryang
7:54 PM AST on July 08, 2007
8:00pm dicussion from the NHC

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 40W/41W IS RELOCATED
FURTHER W ALONG 51W BASED ON THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM THAT CLEARLY
SHOWS THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE...AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE CAYENNE VERTICAL
SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS JUST OVER THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1723. Tazmanian
4:55 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
IDIOTS
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1722. bobw999
7:55 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
LOL!!!! The TAFB watches the weather channel!!!
1720. Drakoen
11:54 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 37W BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SSMI DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER. THIS IS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH SOME TURNING NEAR 11N. THE SAL
VERTICAL SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE ON THE 4TH OF
JULY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED ON THE 00Z SURFACE MAP.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 40W/41W IS RELOCATED
FURTHER W ALONG 51W BASED ON THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM THAT CLEARLY
SHOWS THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE...AND LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE CAYENNE VERTICAL
SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS JUST OVER THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS IDENTITY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND NOW IS MAINLY JUST A SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
WELL BY SSMI DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
MINIMAL ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 82W/83W MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. THE WAVE...COUPLE WITH THE EPAC ITCZ IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 13N. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N25W 6N38W 9N50W 7N60W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 49W-56W
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-32W...AND WITHIN 100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO 24N86W. THE TROUGH
IS STILL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO AIDED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WATERS NEAR 28N88W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS WWD BEGINNING TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW IS
SPINNING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. FAIR
WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AROUND RIDGING DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONCE AGAIN...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS FOUND
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE EPAC ITCZ. SEE ABOVE. A
SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA
AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF 14N AND E OF NICARAGUA. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER
HIGH OVER FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LOW THAT PERSISTS JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA AND
JAMAICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE IN PLACE S OF THE ATLC SFC
RIDGE...AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE TRADES ARE
ALLOWING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PUSH W ACROSS THE AREA. ACCORDING TO THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS...A PATCH OF AFRICAN DUST IS
REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS BRINGING A MORE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST...WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM PALM BEACH TO
31N70W. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS DOMINATED BY THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ANCHORED ON A 1032 MB
HIGH NEAR 42N20W. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES E OF 70W. THE WEAK TROUGHING/LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE/LIFT NE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. ELSEWHERE ALOFT ON THE LARGE
SCALE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR W AND E PORTIONS
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. OTHER SMALLER SCALE UPPER FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS
PATTERN BUT ARE NOT GENERATING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
GR
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
1719. Tazmanian
4:54 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
NOT YET
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1718. msphar
11:44 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
in any case dust is pressing the blob southwards, and wind shear is giving it a haircut before it reaches Pottery's island.
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1716. Tazmanian
4:53 PM PDT on July 08, 2007
THAT WAVE IS 96L THEY ARE RE UESING IT ON ARE WAVE GOOOOOOOOOT IT
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1714. Drakoen
11:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
no they are not... at least they are not showing development.


Link
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1713. stormybil
11:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
OK JP LINK
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif
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1712. Patrap
6:51 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Current Surface Sea State analyis..Link
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1708. Alec
7:51 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 7:51 PM EDT on July 08, 2007.

A Category 5 could form at any moment. Just look at the blob out there.


why not do better things with your time....
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1707. eye
11:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
i remember when a hurricane formed when the hurricane hunters accidently went through it, you couldnt even see it in sat, Emily a few years back? basically, there was a huge hurricane to its N and somehow the hurricane hunters flew threw this vortex, it was named a hurricane, then got eatten by the much bigger one nearby...no models predicted that!
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1706. Drakoen
11:51 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Regardless of whether or not it developed i am talking about the models actually picking up the system.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
1705. stormybil
11:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I STILL GET THE SPEGHTTI MODELS ON 96L ALL DAY ARE THEY STILL VALID .
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1704. Drakoen
11:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Our little wave getting so much attention lol. Just wait and see what the NHC says about it. If you want professional insight.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
1701. EdMahmoud
11:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Edmahmoud the models aren't 100% how long did it take them to predict 96L????


Well, the GFS always lost it quickly, and the Canadian was pretty close, carrying a weak low as far West as Trinidad, and then killing it.


Since 96L didn't develop into anything (even if it might have briefly been technically an un-named TD or TS for a few hours Wednesday)the lack of model predictions doesn't say a thing about my original assertion- I personally don't recall a tropical storm forming w/i 48 hours w/o at least one global model predicting it.
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1700. bobw999
7:49 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
LOL!!!! The TAFB watches the weather channel!!!
1699. ryang
7:44 PM AST on July 08, 2007
RL3AO try an be sensitive, shear is forecasted to drop.
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1698. Patrap
6:45 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Guam forecast..as the TC passes to its SW..

Link
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1697. eye
11:43 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
you do know that you more or less have to get a masters or doctorate in meteorology in order to get a descent job? The university I graduated from has an outstanding MEA program....if you want to major in it fine, but you should really do research before you do to see the job outlook and what sort of education you have to have. Especially these times when computers are taking it over more and more....
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1696. EdMahmoud
11:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I don't think NRL Monterey works weekends, which is why they haven't taken the "96L" down yet.
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1695. bobw999
7:45 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
bob it still needs to organize its convection it still appears sloppy.

Yup. But its the closes thing to a storm out there in the world.
1694. Alec
7:43 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Good JP.....You dont have to have a degree in order to still be smart about weather.....Self study is good motivation.
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1693. EdMahmoud
11:41 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Also, especially in June and July, the semi-permanent Colombian heat low produces fairly strong winds from the East in the eastern caribbean, in the same area where upper winds are almost always from the West, so if anything happens next week, which I don't think will happen, it would be something on the old front South of Bermuda.
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1692. bobw999
7:44 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
WHO GIVES A CRAP WHAT IT IS...IT WONT DEVELOP.

There problem solved.


Thats one way........
1691. Patrap
6:44 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
West-Pac Full Disk WV

Link
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1689. sporteguy03
11:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Alec,
StormW also
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1687. Drakoen
11:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
bob it still needs to organize its convection it still appears sloppy.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
1686. bobw999
7:42 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
hurricane23 always thinks nothing will develop. I think I remember him saying katrina would just fizzle out over the GOM after it crossed Florida.

Also hurricane23 has contacts at the NHC.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.