Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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336. wunderwomen
9:46 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
What happens when it rains cats and dogs?
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335. FLfishyweather
1:43 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
This is a weather blog, not the funniest mom in America show...

Nah, im just kidding =)
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334. wunderwomen
9:43 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
IDIOT SIGHTING: When my husband and I arrived at an automobile dealership to pick up our car, we were told the keys had been locked in it. We went to the service department and found a mechanic working feverishly to unlock the driver's side door. As I watched from the passenger side, I instinctively tried the door handle and discovered that it was unlocked. "Hey," I announced to the technician, "Its open!" His reply, "I know - I already got that side."

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333. wunderwomen
9:42 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
IDIOT SIGHTING: I work with an individual who plugged her power strip back into itself, and for the sake of her own life, couldn't understand why her system would not turn on.
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332. wunderwomen
9:41 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
IDIOT SIGHTING: I was at the airport, checking in at the gate when an airport employee asked, "Has anyone put anything in your baggage without your knowledge?" To which I replied, "If it was without my knowledge, how would I know?" He smiled knowingly and nodded, "That's why we ask."
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331. wunderwomen
9:41 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
here is a good laugh

IDIOT SIGHTING: I live in a semi rural area. We recently had a new neighbor call the local township administrative office to request the removal of the Deer Crossing sign on our road. The reason: "Too many deer are being hit by cars out here! I don't think this is a good place for them to be crossing anymore."
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330. bobw999
9:40 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
max left cause he did'nt want to deal with the shit when it hit the fan

So true. Now he works at Local 10 in Miami, shows up to work for 2 minutes to stay stuff that a regular met. could say. He probably gets paid 3 times as much.
329. FLfishyweather
1:39 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
So your saying he was a sissie Keeper?
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328. wunderwomen
9:39 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
haha lol i crack myself up and you all crack me up haha
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326. FLfishyweather
1:37 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
weather channel- bringing weather to life...

get real
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325. FLfishyweather
1:35 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Hey didn't Max say he was leaving because he wanted to see his family? What ever happened to that?
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324. wunderwomen
9:35 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
yeah!!! we can officially call this a debate wow how much fun!!

*running runs even faster trips hard Drakoen standing over wunderwomen then a commercial brought to you by the weather channel*
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323. Bobbyweather
9:35 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
"97L" could form by 7/7/07 (tomorrow) if possible.
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322. Drakoen
1:36 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
the NHC is a part of NOAA.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
321. Drakoen
1:33 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
hello FLfish. joining the debate..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
320. bobw999
9:33 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Its not the NHC that makes the forecast, its NOAA.
319. wunderwomen
9:33 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
hello

*you just walked into a big mess*
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318. bobw999
9:31 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
who knows maybe hurricane season will be a big bust too they can blame proenza for that too in late october when it comes to weather we all know there wrong 90 percent of the time can'nt get mad at him for being wrong cause there all wrong more than they are right

Can you support that statement??
317. FLfishyweather
1:30 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
hey everyone
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316. wunderwomen
9:30 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: bobw999 at 9:30 PM EDT on July 06, 2007.

wouldnt you want a birthday pary too????


lol

just had to make the joke sorry lol

Read it Link

NOAA wanted a $4 million dollar 200th birthday party even though they were founded in 1970. Certainly bogus.



OMG!!! Thats crazy!!!!!
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315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:19 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
who knows maybe hurricane season will be a big bust too they can blame proenza for that too in late october when it comes to weather we all know there wrong 90 percent of the time can'nt get mad at him for being wrong cause there all wrong more than they are right
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314. bobw999
9:27 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
wouldnt you want a birthday pary too????


lol

just had to make the joke sorry lol


Read it Link

NOAA wanted a $4 million dollar 200th birthday party even though they were founded in 1970. Certainly bogus.
313. brazocane
1:25 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Wasn't Alecia the strongest storm to form from an ULL?
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312. Drakoen
1:29 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
broad open circulation of disorganized thunderstorms moving into South America.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
311. wunderwomen
9:29 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
they are just a bunch of stubborn people wanting attention blah blah blah bleh
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310. wunderwomen
9:28 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
ok
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309. Drakoen
1:25 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
we are nearing the peak of hurricane season. Finding someone now would loose the focus/goal of the NHC. Bill is qualified for the job and therefore can last thorough this season. i just don't understand why they can't make mends. If the senior forecasters at the NHC can't do that they don't have the publics interest at hand.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
308. Bobbyweather
9:26 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: wunderwomen at 1:24 GMT on July 7, 2007
Anything to back your opinion up?

No.
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307. marlinsfan1
9:26 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Can someone please point out where 96L is located right now!!!
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306. wunderwomen
9:25 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
wouldnt you want a birthday pary too????


lol

just had to make the joke sorry lol
*wonderwomen hides under desk with a look of terror in her eyes*
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305. Drakoen
1:24 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 1:23 AM GMT on July 07, 2007.

Proenza, i think, should only stay for this hurricane season.

yup.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
304. wunderwomen
9:24 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 9:23 PM EDT on July 06, 2007.

Proenza, i think, should only stay for this hurricane season.


Anything to back your opinion up?
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303. bobw999
9:23 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
There should have never been a problem. The guy mentions that QuickScat is failing, and that NOAA is spending money on a bogus birthday party. That should have been it. I don't blame him for trying to keep QuickScat. It would be money better sent than a bogus birthday party.
302. Drakoen
1:23 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Wunderwomen, like i said they didn't handle the situation professionally or maturely. I hope they get reprimanded for that.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
301. Bobbyweather
9:23 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Proenza, i think, should only stay for this hurricane season.
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300. wunderwomen
9:20 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Do you all think it should have gone public or if they should have waited and either said Proenzaa is leaving do to some problems and this is the new guy blah blah blah or should they have just said there was a problem, but Proenza is staying? Personally I dont think they should have made it public yet, i mean look at all the attention it is getting. Geez!!!
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299. Drakoen
1:18 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Posted By: JFLORIDA at 11:12 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

And like this too from above:

I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

I mean what is that?! Thats just petty and silly - the guy is more than qualified - I wonder if there is some kind of NOAA/NHC thing going on here.


me too. Politics goes deeper than what the public sees. That is very unfortunate
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
298. Tazmanian
6:16 PM PDT on July 06, 2007
Proenza defies calls to leave hurricane center
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com

JARED LAZARUS/MIAMI HERALD STAFF
National Hurricane Center Bill Proenza tells the Miami Herald early Friday he will not resign, even after half of his staff signed a letter urging him to do so.
Raw video | Staff lashes out
Special section | Hurricane 2007
On the Web | Weather Underground
Embattled hurricane center director Bill Proenza on Friday angrily defied calls from a mutinous staff for his dismissal. At the same time, he said he would discuss ''the way forward'' with his superiors in Washington.

''I'm not going to resign,'' he told The Miami Herald. ``The staff here doesn't dictate who the leader is. What a dangerous precedent when we allow subordinates to dictate their leadership by signing a petition.''

His comments came a day after nearly half of the staff of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County joined the revolt against him, issuing a statement calling for his immediate dismissal.

''The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake,'' said the statement, signed by seven hurricane forecasters and 16 other employees, including many staff scientists and Proenza's secretary.

''The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director,'' the manifesto said, ``and with the heart of the hurricane season fast approaching, urges the Department of Commerce to make this happen as quickly as possible.''

On Friday, the rebellious staff members expressed disappointment in Proenza's refusal to resign.

''He has poisoned the atmosphere here,'' hurricane forecaster James Franklin said during a press conference conducted outside the building. ``We would have liked to have Bill see that he didn't have control of his staff and step down. That's not going to happen.''

Earlier this week, he and two other senior forecasters told The Miami Herald that Proenza should leave and another senior forecaster criticized Proenza.

They said his public statements about an aging satellite have undermined confidence in their forecasts. Others believe that his frequent clashes with superiors in Washington have become a serious distraction as the hurricane season deepens.

Proenza, 62, who was out of town when the petition was signed and released, returned late Thursday to discover the full-blown mutiny. He insisted Friday that he was not going to be bullied into leaving a $150,000-a-year job he has held only six months.

He added, however, that he served at the pleasure of his bosses in Washington and would discuss the situation with them.

Those superiors also have been applying pressure, last month reprimanding him by letter and this week conducting a snap inspection of his operation -- a process that will resume next week.

''In all sincerity, I need to discuss the way forward with Washington, D.C.,'' Proenza said. ``I work for the American people and I'm always prepared to provide for their greater good.''

He blamed nearly all of the turmoil on the actions of his bosses, particularly the ''extraordinary disruption'' caused by the inspection launched by five federal officials, including an attorney versed in personnel matters.

''That triggered a frenzy of concern [within his staff] about mission deliver and-or one's career,'' he said.

'I have employees tell me, `Bill, I am so much for you and for what you've brought in. But I'm so afraid that if I'm viewed to be with you and you leave, then I'm viewed as being in the wrong camp,' '' Proenza said.

On Thursday, virtually his entire senior staff endorsed the manifesto, including:

Senior hurricane forecasters Franklin, Lixion Avila, Rick Knabb and Richard Pasch; hurricane forecasters Eric Blake, Dan Brown and Michelle Mainelli; meteorologists Wally Barnes, Robert Berg, John Cangialosi, Hugh Cobb, Martin Nelson, Gladys Rubio, Chris Sisko and Patricia Wallace; oceanographer Stephen Baig; executive officer Ahsha Tribble; administrative officer Vivian Jorge; and Proenza's administrative assistant, Evangelina Maruly.

''This group believes that we need new leadership here and it believes we need it quickly,'' Franklin told The Miami Herald.

He said that the 23 signatures represent about half of the total staff -- and 70 percent of those who had an opportunity to see the statement.

Another member of the staff said the group met at 3 p.m. in the hurricane center, situated on Florida International University's campus, to discuss the issuance of a statement.

About an hour later, to avoid any conflict with government duties and regulations, those who agreed with the statement's contents walked across the street to an FIU building and signed it.

In another development Thursday, a prominent private forecaster joined the call for Proenza's resignation or ouster.

Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist for the Weather Underground, which provides forecasts for The Associated Press, Google and hundreds of other clients, questioned the scientific basis of Proenza's campaign to replace the aging QuikScat satellite.

''There's never been anything like this,'' Masters said. ``He should resign this month.''

Masters, whose online site serves Web pages that receive 10 million visits a day, including The Miami Herald's forecast-related Web pages, criticized the basis for Proenza's assertion that the loss of QuikScat would diminish the accuracy of two-day forecasts by 10 percent and three-day forecasts by 16 percent.

The satellite, launched in 1999, is operating beyond its designed life span. A replacement has not yet been designed, though preliminary plans are under way.

Many forecasters and researchers say a replacement should feature upgraded capabilities, even at the risk of delaying deployment, and that Proenza's public campaign could work against that.

At any rate, Masters said, Proenza's estimates of forecast deterioration are based on a study that examines a small number of forecasts, is contradicted by other studies and has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, an unusual circumstance.

''To be in the most visible and responsible scientific position in our profession of meteorology, everything you do has to come from the science,'' Masters said. ``You have to fairly present it. If you don't have the integrity to do that, you shouldn't be in the job.''

But a leading QuikScat expert rose to Proenza's defense.

Bob Atlas, who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, was a key member of the team that developed and initially worked with QuikScat.

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a ''rigorous study'' that provides the ``most comprehensive study of QuikScat data related to hurricane predictions.''

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikScat has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikScat data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

''Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers,'' Atlas said.

But also on Virginia Key, Otis Brown, the dean of the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, which works closely with hurricane forecasters, said he was disturbed by the current climate at the center.

''When you have this much apparent turmoil and you don't have everyone, at least superficially, pulling in the same direction, that cannot be in the best interests of an organization,'' Brown said.

Herald Staff Writer Adam H. Beasley contributed to this report.


oh boy the water at the nhc is going to get vary hot now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115248
297. bobw999
9:17 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
i think more to it than the quick scat a lot more

Would you like to share your thoughts about this?
296. BoyntonBeach
1:18 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Still Raining Here... StormW you have mail...
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295. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:15 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
i think more to it than the quick scat a lot more
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294. wunderwomen
9:14 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Is that really something to petition about?

Those are questions they still havent answered/ you know i think they shouldnt have said anything about him leaving until either he left and they were goin to be telling us who the new guy is or they were just telling us there was a problem and he is stayin. They shouldnt have gone public.
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293. moonlightcowboy
1:14 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Thanks, StormW!
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292. bobw999
9:13 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
He doesn't need to leave in the middle of hurricane season. He said that the QuickScat needed to be replaced. Is that really something to petition about?
291. wunderwomen
9:12 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
thanks for the input jflorida
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289. nash28
1:07 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Qualified to do what? Be a dictator?

He is not what that place needs. IBM? Good fit.
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287. wunderwomen
9:01 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: JFLORIDA at 9:01 PM EDT on July 06, 2007.

nash28 what do you know we dont about this situation? Proenza is qualified

Are you saying you want Proenza to stay?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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