Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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486. IKE
9:51 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
For 96L to have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving it needs to go WNW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
485. IKE
9:49 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Shear has increased in the southeastern Carribean. Maybe with that massive high building in it will lower in a day or 2.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
484. Drakoen
2:49 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
shear decreasing in the northern Caribbean.
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483. Drakoen
2:46 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
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482. ryang
10:46 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Here's the forecast...

Barbados' Forecast for Saturday 7th July, 2007.

Synopsis: A tropical wave is afecting the island.
Weather: Today and Tonight: Cloudy with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
481. ryang
10:44 AM AST on July 07, 2007
IKE... Well yes... You can look at the beach... Saying that the currents are rough now...LOL
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
480. IKE
9:45 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Keep us posted on your weather ryang...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
478. ryang
10:43 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Drakoen that's at the Airport... I mean recored here at my house this morning...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
477. IKE
9:42 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: ryang at 9:42 AM CDT on July 07, 2007.
Drakoen No Kidding...


You live on flatland?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
476. ryang
10:42 AM AST on July 07, 2007
It's very overcast, rain now starting...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
475. Drakoen
2:42 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
wunderground says you winds are at 21 mph....
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474. IKE
9:41 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: ryang at 9:40 AM CDT on July 07, 2007.
Hi Everyone... The wind here at my house is 40MPH, just west of 96L.


I forgot you lived down there. 40 mph winds?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
473. ryang
10:41 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Drakoen No Kidding...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
472. groundman
2:36 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 1:47 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.
Morning all only here for sec. Baha that forecast means that the gulf coast could be screwed this season if there are alot of storms. It shows the bermuda higgh building its ridge in conjucntion with another out in to the gulf. bad bad bad.


Worse than that BAD BAD BAD. Coast is just now getting things picked up. I don't think anyone has the heart for another one right now but it was horrible before and they have persevered.

As just a clean up person I don't have the heart to see what little has been rebuilt torn down again. It's great to have roads cleared, fairly safe water, most business's open, highway signs that are correct. The little things in life.
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471. ryang
10:40 AM AST on July 07, 2007
I'm in Barbados...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
470. Drakoen
2:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: ryang at 2:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

Hi Everyone... The wind here at my house is 40MPH, just west of 96L.


LOL really??
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469. Drakoen
2:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
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468. nash28
2:39 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Pretty low shear in the Gulf. Good thing nothing is brewing there now.
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467. ryang
10:36 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Hi Everyone... The wind here at my house is 40MPH, just west of 96L.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12453
466. Thundercloud01221991
2:37 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
I am no expert on this but I think that 94W is already a strong Tropical Storm to Typhoon look at the eye like feature forming
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465. Drakoen
2:39 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
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464. IKE
9:37 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
How about posting a current wind shear map?

Thanks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
463. IKE
9:36 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
It's about 150 miles due east of Grenada.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
462. Drakoen
2:34 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 2:33 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

I still see a spin..although slight...from 96L...around 11.8N,59.2W...with plenty of moisture, convection.


i see it too but i don't think its at the surface. even if it is upper level winds remian unfavorable for development.
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461. IKE
9:34 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Degenerated to a wave...slight spin approaching the islands...Barbados, Grenada...appears to have slowed down a little.

Plenty of convection with it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
460. Dakster
2:31 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
StormKat,

That quite a difference. The tropics to Alaska... Good luck and have fun fishing.

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459. ClearH2OFla
10:33 AM EDT on July 07, 2007
hey all whats new with 96L at work .
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458. IKE
9:32 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
I still see a spin..although slight...from 96L...around 11.8N,59.2W...with plenty of moisture, convection.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
457. nash28
2:29 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Once the MJO shifts and we go to an upward pulse, we will begin to get busy.
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456. IKE
9:18 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Take care stormkat.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
455. stormkat
1:59 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
ok guys im here to tell you things are changing in the weather data i been looking at...by july 20 things are going to start to break loose fairly quickly the shear will become very light over all of the tropics and the way the high is setting up spells trouble for the caribbean islands and the GOM.. i dont like this pattern it gives me the chills when i look at it..i want to stress this has nada to do with the computer models i dont use them..guys i suggest you stop the bickering and start to really get ready for july 20th because after that we will be busy...i have analyzed the african coast data and its going to be a very busy cape verdes season..i have up my prediction a little to 11 storms and 4 will be major hurricanes...i cant stress this enough guys it just takes one to destroy what you have...im seeing the sst are rising pretty quickly now over all the tropics and the ssp are falling off the coast of africa where the temps have climbed to near 80 degrees...so get ready guys i wont be back on here until the 21st of july and by then i expect to see quite a few strong waves stating to develop...im going on vacation for 2 weeks well i still can.. ....im going to alaska to do some serious fishing ill see you when i get back ..StormKat
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454. Rainman32
10:04 AM EDT on July 07, 2007
I'm curious, I had not noticed this before:

$$
Forecaster Knabb/RRG

I also saw a GR last night, is this something new where they are using initials? and just who are these semi-anonymous forecasters?
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452. weathermanwannabe
9:52 AM EDT on July 07, 2007
Good Morning.......Looks like it is going to be a quiet weekend in the Tropical Atlantic...High pressure in the GOM and nothing in sight right now........
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450. Thundercloud01221991
1:18 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
issued At GUAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1245 PM LST SAT JUL 7 2007

GUZ001-002-003-004-071445-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1245 PM LST SAT JUL 7 2007

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK CENTERED NEAR 4.5N148E OR
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK AND 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. THE
FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER MEANS
THAT THE POTENTIAL IS GOOD FOR THE DISTURBANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN EASTERN YAP STATE OR WESTERN CHUUK STATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND TRACKS IT NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
ACCURATELY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BULLETINS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS ON THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

$$

MILLER/GUARD
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449. bobw999
9:05 AM EDT on July 07, 2007


Could this be the next Typhhon Tip?

94W Typhoon Tip
448. barbadosjulie
1:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
We are having a beautiful sunny morning here
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447. Patrap
7:51 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY



Northwest Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image
(From GOES-EAST Satellite)

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129771
445. melwerle
12:37 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Morning everyone...
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444. highndry1
12:31 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
thanks.
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443. moonlightcowboy
12:00 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
I guess Pottery is getting wet this morning.

I'm out, too, for a lil while. About to go smoke a b.butt for about 12 hours. Have a good Saturday morning, all!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
442. BahaHurican
7:54 AM EDT on July 07, 2007
I'm out for a while. Will check in later on 96L, but I think it will likely make it all the way to the EPac before (if) it does anything serious.
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440. CFLSW
11:41 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Thanks.
I watched all the vids at that link you posted yesterday.
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439. highndry1
11:40 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Completely OT but still earth science related - The other two elemental forces:


For those of you interested in earth and fire as well as wind and rain, lava has again returned in spactacular fashion to Kilauea:

http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/cam/index.htm

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437. moonlightcowboy
11:38 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Morning, StormW, CFLSW and Baha...


Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 7, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...


showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave will move
into the southern Windward Islands this morning. The wave is moving
W at 15 to 20 mph.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

$$
Forecaster Knabb/rrg
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
436. CFLSW
11:31 AM GMT on July 07, 2007
Morning StormW
75W 18N
Is there anything to this?
Or is this a small low caught inbetween 2 highs?
or what is it? if anything?
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