Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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536. Drakoen
4:14 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
if you guys notice the upper level winds are relaxing in the northern Caribbean and seems to be pushing south. The NOGAPS shear forecast show lowering shear within the next 72 hours.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
535. sporteguy03
4:13 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
JP,
Steering currents I thought don't normally head to Central Florida 2004 was different
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533. Drakoen
4:12 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Next week is probably a good bet to get something brewing with moisture returning to the Caribbean and decreasing upper level winds.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
532. sporteguy03
4:11 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
JP,
Mid 90s next week
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531. Drakoen
4:11 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
things reverse near the heart of the season. When its dry now its moist and shear relaxes. This is not a continuous trend.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
530. sporteguy03
4:09 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
What about the troughs? They are still coming South right? Anyone feel trends still point to less activity in the ATL or are all indications for things to pick up?
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527. Drakoen
4:06 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 4:06 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

Drak

Maybe you should run outside and push it further N lol


LMAO
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
526. IKE
11:05 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 11:02 AM CDT on July 07, 2007.
Hi Ike

Have you noticed how the forecast maps for the past two weeks have been showing a strong high stretching all the way back into the Gomex !

This was the set up in 2004 that brought Ivan and others all the way from the far E ATL into the Caribbean and GOM

If we get this persisting into the heart of the season there will be real trouble for the islands , the SE US and GOM


Yeah...I noticed that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
525. kmanislander
4:06 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Drak

Maybe you should run outside and push it further N lol
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524. Drakoen
4:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Kman that squigly line is over my house LMAO.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
523. moonlightcowboy
4:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Yeah, Baha posted a similar map this morning. That is some ridge! And trouble I think, soon!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
522. typhoonalleytc
4:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Dakster the answer to your question is yes, there are 4 conditions of readiness here.
cor 4: means that damaging winds of 50 knots or greater are possible within 72 hours(Guam is always in cor 4)
cor 3 = within 48 hours
cor 2 = within 24 hours
cor 1 = within 12 hours or are already occuring
thomas
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521. kmanislander
4:03 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Hi MLC

Only asking for rain ( no high winds ) ! LOL
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520. kmanislander
3:59 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Hi Ike

Have you noticed how the forecast maps for the past two weeks have been showing a strong high stretching all the way back into the Gomex !

This was the set up in 2004 that brought Ivan and others all the way from the far E ATL into the Caribbean and GOM

If we get this persisting into the heart of the season there will be real trouble for the islands , the SE US and GOM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
519. moonlightcowboy
3:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 3:54 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.
...Hopefully it will come up to the WNW and bring us some rain...


...good morning, Kman...be careful of what you ask for...lol
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
518. hurricane91
3:52 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Gulf wasnt that warm the other day, now theres 90's everywhere in the south west gulf,HOT water
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517. IKE
10:56 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Kman...according to the latests GFS runs...your moisture should be on the increase within a week.

I'm almost in agreement with stormkat. I think something forms in the next 2 weeks. With a strong Atlantic high..it could be a problem for someone.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
516. Dakster
3:55 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Disregard, the web link explaned it.
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515. K8eCane
3:55 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
what is the blob off the carolina coasts? been hanging around a while
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514. Dakster
3:54 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
What is readiness 4? Out of how many or is '1' the worst?
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513. sporteguy03
3:54 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
JP,
You read StormKat's post busy by July 20th? Any Maps or figures to back this?
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512. kmanislander
3:51 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Good morning all,

The remnants of 96L will produce rain for Tobago and maybe Barbados today but right now both islands are reporting E winds.
There is a slight rotation near 11n 58W but it would not appear to be anywhere near the surface. Hopefully it will come up to the WNW and bring us some rain. Its been very dry and in the 90's for the last two weeks so we really need it !

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511. Thundercloud01221991
3:51 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Guam is under readiness 4

http://www.guamhs.org/main/?pg=cor
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510. ryang
11:51 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Ok Drak...Thanks!!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
509. K8eCane
3:51 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
what is the blob off the carolina coasts? been hanging around a while
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508. Drakoen
3:47 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: ryang at 3:46 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

Drakoen, Where are you located?


Florida.. (South)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
507. Thundercloud01221991
3:48 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
IT is a huge storm (tropical Depression now) Guam will get the outer portions of the storm/Typhoon
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505. ClearH2OFla
11:46 AM EDT on July 07, 2007
Nice point Thundercloud nice looking out.
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504. ryang
11:46 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Drakoen, Where are you located?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
503. Thundercloud01221991
3:45 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Guam is US soil
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502. K8eCane
3:44 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
where is 94w?
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501. Drakoen
3:42 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 3:38 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

How come no one is discussing 94W it is ging to affect US soil so I am surprized that it is not top of the line discussion


its not going to..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
500. K8eCane
3:42 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
where is 94w?
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499. Thundercloud01221991
3:41 PM GMT on July 07, 2007

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151Z JUL 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 5.4N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.4N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 6.2N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 6.7N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 7.4N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 8.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.6N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6N 147.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 070151Z JUL 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 070200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN




WTPN51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 070707130605

2007070712 04W NONAME 001 01 345 04 SATL 060
T000 054N 1479E 030
T012 062N 1466E 040 R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 067N 1450E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 074N 1437E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 084N 1420E 065 R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 106N 1391E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151Z JUL 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 5.4N 147.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.4N 147.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 6.2N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 6.7N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 7.4N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 8.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.6N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6N 147.6E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070151Z
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0407070600 36N1502E 20
0407070606 38N1497E 20
0407070612 40N1492E 15
0407070618 42N1486E 15
0407070700 46N1483E 20
0407070706 50N1480E 20
0407070712 54N1479E 30


WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. A 070959Z
SSMI IMAGE SHOWED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. TD
04W HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
B. TD 04W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. TD 04W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED NORTH OF SAIPAN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. TD 04W IS CURRENTLY IN THE STANDARD, TROPICAL EASTERLIES
PATTERN.
B. ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSTANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EFFECT OF THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL BALANCE THE HIGHER
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, RESULTING IN A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
498. Thundercloud01221991
3:37 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
How come no one is discussing 94W it is ging to affect US soil so I am surprized that it is not top of the line discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
497. seflagamma
11:33 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Hi Sophistimom,

just wanted to let you know that I saw your post and responding to it. Usually people get ignored here for the most part.
Thanks for adding your two cents. I live in Hurricane prone SE Florida and agree with you this is the best place to get weather info. I do more lurking on this blog than posting.
And all of the nitpicking must stop soon.
take care and thanks for posting.

Gams
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
496. Rainman32
11:22 AM EDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: Rainman32 at 10:10 AM EDT on July 07, 2007.
I'm curious, I had not noticed this before:
$$
Forecaster Knabb/RRG
I also saw a GR last night, is this something new where they are using initials? and just who are these semi-anonymous forecasters?


OK, maybe have figured out:

Lead Forecasters
Wally Barnes
Hugh D. Cobb III
Ronald Goodman
Lawrence Lahiff, PhD
Martin Nelson

Intern Forecasters
John Cangialosi
Gladys Rubio

still curious about use of initials? dunno, politics and boredom (on my part).. anyone else notice this before?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
495. ryang
11:16 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Well, I think so, but not anything severe...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
494. ryang
11:15 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Rain to the south associated with''96L''

map

Let's hope some of it move's to the north.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
493. barbadosjulie
3:15 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Oh ok, you think later this evening we will get some rain?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
492. ryang
11:13 AM AST on July 07, 2007
Weatherman I'm starting hoping it will be quiet...

Julie It's very windy here too and overcast...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
491. barbadosjulie
3:09 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Ryang, how is it up by you? At the airport is just breezy. Man, i want rain!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
490. weathermanwannabe
11:06 AM EDT on July 07, 2007
Did not realize that Ryang was on the "front-line" in Barbados.......Nice to have you there but make sure that you keep a good watch this Summer and some pocket change handy in case you need to fly out (I'm sure that you know that catching a flight out of the islands is nightmare as any hurricane approaches)..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
489. Sophistimom
2:57 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Hello...Just wanted to put my 2 cents worth in about all that I have been reading on the situtation with your problems of what is or isn't being said. I live in Oklahoma, and unless we ACTUALLY have a tornado headed up the " H E Bailey turnpike " , I watch an depend on the weather on your site as opposed to all the dramatics that our local forecasters like to present ( still love Gary England, though ). I, like millions of others who do not live in the states, most affected by hurricanes, DO HAVE FAMILY MEMBERS AND FRIENDS that live there, and would really appreciate it if you would do as suggested by " KATSTORM "....Stop the bickering and get to paying attention to what you do best, and that is to protect our family and friends. I, for one, have a son that lives in Austin, and although he is not directly on the coast, still has to deal with adverse conditions, while ...for the most part, your family members are far enough inland and safe , or in other states, to not have to deal with the weather at hand. Why did all of this just happen to become public, just at the beginning of what you all say will be a bad hurricane season. Get rid of the politics, and get it together. I am sure that you are paid quite decently for what you do, and if it is to the point that you have lost your drive for what it is that you do and used to love, then get out and find another profession. I do appreciate all that your service provides, just don't want to have to prepare for a funeral, when no one is watching the weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
488. IKE
9:53 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
Which may be what the Mobile,Al. extended is talking about.....


"We may also have a tropical wave translating northwest
through the Florida Straits by late next week as well...but nothing
of significance is seen on the long range scopes as far as the
tropics are concerned for our region at this time."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
486. IKE
9:51 AM CDT on July 07, 2007
For 96L to have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving it needs to go WNW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.