Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1936. RL3AO
10:20 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
here michael
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1935. RL3AO
10:17 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
I don't know what the death toll would be, I'm not god. I doubt it would be above 10 or 15 if it hit Japan.
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1932. RL3AO
10:16 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Japan is issuing the advisories for the entire West Pacific.
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1931. moonlightcowboy
3:14 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
What's the largest land-falling storm to hit the CONUS?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29598
1930. MrNiceville
3:13 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
Understood.

But, the last Navy published track pointed it at Cheju and the East Sea (Sea of Japan), which means they (Japan) should start becoming aware of it soon.

Not alarmist - just proactive...
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1929. benirica
3:13 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
hey all whats up in the atl??? i see that west pac storm is getting its act together. and what an acct it is!
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1928. RL3AO
10:13 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
I didn't say no one would die if a storm hit Japan. I said Japan knows how to prepare.
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1927. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:11 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
hmm Fuji Network News must not be reporting Man-yi yet than..
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1925. RL3AO
10:12 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
It is still 2500 miles from Japan Niceville. That is why it is not all over the news.
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1924. MrNiceville
3:11 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
I guess I should add that he was with us in NOLA for Katrina, so he knows what a furious storm can do...
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1923. MrNiceville
3:04 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
Michael;

Get over it, man. Prices and supply are moot compared to people's lives. The price of plywood has come back down in New Orleans, but my sister still has no first floor on her house because the Feds can't decide how much of her property they are going to claim for levee access...

I just spoke with a friend in Iwokuni (south of Hiroshima) and he said that they were unaware of the storm track on base. Apparently the wx radar is down (has been for a few days) and he had to google Man-Yi to even find out what it was.

Let's hope it recurves radically...
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1921. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:00 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
Don't worry michael. Japan are used to these storms and they know how to protect its citizens. In fact, probably better than the US Gov't.
----
heh well when a cyclone does get within Japan they release 1 hour advisories
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1919. RL3AO
9:55 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Don't worry michael. Japan are used to these storms and they know how to protect its citizens. In fact, probably better than the US Gov't.
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1918. hurrycain
2:53 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
No taz would write "peen whole I"
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1916. RL3AO
9:51 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Not to be a wishcaster, but I think this has a very good chance to go <910mb.
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1915. Thundercloud01221991
2:51 AM GMT on July 09, 2007


too bad taz is not here I am going to say his 2 favorite words

PINHOLE EYE???
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1912. BahaHurican
10:38 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
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1911. groundman
2:35 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
Tropicnerd13 to post a link:

Copy the pages http address you want to link to, when you write your post hit Link, it's in blue letters, 2nd button on my monitor up above, it will have http in the field, don't worry about deleting just click in the text field where http is and paste the address of the page. When you put your post on ....magic ....... it's a Link with the correct address in your post.
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1910. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:36 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

----
well the warning list is getting smaller
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1907. BahaHurican
10:33 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
RL3AO and Tc,

Those waters are certainly warm enough to sustain some rapid intensification. It'll be interesting to see what's happening to it by this time tomorrow evening.
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1906. ustropics
2:24 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
836
WTPQ31 PGUM 090059
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM GUAM LST MON JUL 9 2007

...TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY...

AS OF 11 AM GUAM LST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FARAULEP IS
CANCELLED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.7 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
150 MILES EAST OF FAIS
210 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
315 MILES EAST OF YAP
380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NGULU
265 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
MAN-YI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


REPEATING THE 10 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 142.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
5 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


My guess is the large field of convection is associated with this system being enveloped in the MJO. With this moist profile and an incredibly stable upper level environment Man-yi could strengthen incredibly. The 00z run of the CMC forecasts the pressure to drop to 969hPa. The Euro took it to 947hPa.
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1905. Thundercloud01221991
2:35 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 2:33 AM GMT on July 09, 2007.
How can you tell the rotation is seen by the bouys? What are the wave heights in the area now?


The winds are coming from opisite directions on the north and the south

wave hight 20-25 feet Link
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1904. Hurricaneblast
2:25 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
I have a rough estimate for the size of Man-Yi. The length across it (farthest on the left to farthest band on the right) is about 1,800 miles. The main area of convection though is about 700 miles.
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1902. BahaHurican
10:31 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Try this JMA loop; make sure it's set for 24 hours, and note the development. I especially noticed how the cloud cover has solidified and wrapped around to the N and E of the centre.
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1901. Tropicnerd13
2:31 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
i gotta go. talk tomorrow.
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1900. Thundercloud01221991
2:32 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
08/2033 UTC 10.0N 143.0E T3.0/3.0 MAN-YI -- West Pacific Ocean
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1899. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:27 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
Looks like the Philippines will have their second name storm (Bebeng) to monitor and not have much impact

the 30 knot ring might affect them if the storm is large though
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1898. BahaHurican
10:27 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
random,

It does look worse now than it did 24 hours ago. Looks like the cloud cover is consolidating.
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1897. Thundercloud01221991
2:29 AM GMT on July 09, 2007


LOOK at the rotation clearly seen by the bouys
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1895. Tropicnerd13
2:26 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
i see what you mean michaelstl. if it looks this bad now, imagine what it would look like as a cat 5 typhoon!
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1894. RL3AO
9:28 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Here baha

1
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1893. BahaHurican
10:22 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Also of note, folks, is that Man-yi is still at 9N, which means it isn't even out of the ITCZ yet, to all intents and purposes. Once it starts pulling away, it could crank up.

Oh, and does anybody have SSTs for that part of the WPac?
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1889. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:16 AM GMT on July 09, 2007


The Weather Channel Map - link is from Thailand Meteorological Department.
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1888. BahaHurican
10:19 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Here is a zoomed-in version. Looks like anywhere from Northern Philippines to Korea could end up under the gun with this one.

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1886. Tropicnerd13
2:19 AM GMT on July 09, 2007
im back. manyi is the biggest storm ive ever seen. if i can, ill try to get pics of katrina, rita, and wilma for you, random michael. the first one is rita. i cant figure out how to make a link for it. 2 is wilma. 3 is katrina. http://www.weathercharts.org/tropicalstorms.htm
http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/051019.wilma.gif
http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/050828.katrina.gif
can you guys give me instructions on how to link and how to post an image?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.