Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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786. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
area of disturb weather 10 43 showing signs of building convection on rgb at high speed animation some cirulation is evident on sat as evening progresses area should be watch for possible developement
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52250
785. IKE
2:17 PM CDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:17 PM CDT on July 07, 2007.
what heavy convection?


That massive blob near 9.5N,43W...LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
784. moonlightcowboy
7:14 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 7:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2007. (hide)
It's raining at my house again today in Defuniak Springs,Fl....


Ike, used to buy the best Silver Queen white corn in Defuniak from a guy there named "Cotton"...was always a great stand!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
783. Drakoen
7:17 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
the low is actually under the heaviest convection. Use the RGB or visible sat loop. You can see the low move under more dense clouds.
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782. Tazmanian
7:16 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
TD 4W is rapid intensification at this time this take a look hot deep the t-storms are on this loop

Link

deep huh???

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780. Drakoen
7:16 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 7:15 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

I see that at the back part, but I also see one at the front. Maybe it's the entire system.


thats what i am saying lol.
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778. Drakoen
7:15 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
I see what you are talking about at the back part of the wave but you ahve too look near the heavy convection and stare at it to see.
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777. IKE
2:14 PM CDT on July 07, 2007
I see that at the back part, but I also see one at the front. Maybe it's the entire system.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
776. Drakoen
7:14 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:14 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

yeah at the back part

sigh oh well i don't know how else to convince you.
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774. NorthxCakalaky
7:12 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
A tropical wave is passing through the southern Lesser Antilles bringing squally bands of rain and thundershowers. Winds may gust as high as 30 mph as the wave passes through. This system should move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday, but no development is expected at this time.

Info from weather.com
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773. Stormchaser2007
3:08 PM EDT on July 07, 2007
Forecasted Path and intensity from the CMC on TD 4W:

nne
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772. Drakoen
7:12 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Even a MET (StormW) said there was some cyclonic turning with the system
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771. Drakoen
7:11 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:11 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

that "cyclonic turning" you are seeing is over the whole wave, the turning is happening at the back part, not at 45W


yes it is lol look harder use the RGB loop. I told you can't see it clearly because it is under high clouds.
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768. Drakoen
7:09 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
I will use the big image next time lol.
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767. Drakoen
7:07 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
LoL jp just howing them where it is and is show the cyclonic turning you can even looka t the outflow of the cloud. We will have to see what it does during diurnal max. Currently it doesn't look better than 96L when it flared up.
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766. Tazmanian
7:06 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
whats that one wave at 10N??
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765. Drakoen
7:05 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
You can't see the low because it is under high cloud tops.
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763. Drakoen
7:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
even the NHC says there is some cyclonic turning lol.
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762. Tazmanian
7:04 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
ok thank you
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761. IKE
2:02 PM CDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:01 PM CDT on July 07, 2007.
this wave doesnt look better than 96L ever did

I dont see any turning either, there is just nothing there yet guys


Look slightly west of the convection...


We're reaching for anything! LOL!


It's been a yawner in the Atlantic since Barry Manilow.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
760. CJ5
6:58 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: msphar at 6:45 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.
weather in the central atlantic is a major concern to me, any one guessing about this area catches my attention. You for instance championed 96L until it was totally destroyed by SAL and shear, now I know to take what you say with a large grain of salt.


What are you talking about? 96L has been talked about because it was a legitimate invest worth discussing. Plenty have "championed" it but Drak was not one of them. 96L lived on despite being delcared death by many...thats how it goes.
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759. Drakoen
7:03 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
I see turning with the wave. Its very easy to see. And it does not look better than 96l especially when 96L looked its best.
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758. ryang
3:02 PM AST on July 07, 2007
Taz 40 west 10 North

map
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757. NorthxCakalaky
7:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
* Question * Where do you put your weather vane at? Shade, or in the Sun?
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756. Tazmanian
7:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
yes it dos look good then 96L it has a lot more t-storms with it then 96L did there for i say we give it a ch
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755. Drakoen
7:02 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Drakoen one thing for sure is that it looks more good then 96L was where is this wave at and where is it going??

It is East of 45w moving at 10-15 mph to the west maybe WNW.
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754. IKE
2:01 PM CDT on July 07, 2007
It's raining at my house again today in Defuniak Springs,Fl....

Rain..w/thunder...78.1 degrees.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
752. IKE
2:00 PM CDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: KEEPEROFTHEGATE at 2:00 PM CDT on July 07, 2007.
97L coming soon to a blog near u 10 43


I see some turning...I see some convection...not sold on it being 97L yet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
751. Tazmanian
6:59 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
: Drakoen one thing for sure is that it looks more good then 96L was where is this wave at and where is it going??
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750. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:46 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
97L coming soon to a blog near u 10 43
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52250
749. bobw999
2:58 PM EDT on July 07, 2007
Wasn't STL saying last night that the CMC said it could get as strong as Typhoon Tip??
748. Drakoen
6:56 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
04W will most likely go under rapid intensification.
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747. IKE
1:53 PM CDT on July 07, 2007
Posted By: bobw999 at 1:52 PM CDT on July 07, 2007.
Tropical Depression 04W


According to the projected path, it will come no closer then about 200-250 miles from Guam.

UNLESS...it changes it's projected course.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
746. Drakoen
6:54 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
If it can continue to build convection it has a chance, but i right now i have to agree with JP.
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745. Drakoen
6:51 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Seems we may have 97L located at around 45W. If shear is low enough and convection remains, some slow development is possibler as it enters the caribbean. 96L made the path more favorable for the possibly-soon-to-be (97L)...

yea i agree with the clearing path. If you loook at the Water vapor loop moisture in the mid and upper levels have moved to the north.
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744. bobw999
2:49 PM EDT on July 07, 2007
Tropical Depression 04W



Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
742. PSLHokie
1:49 PM EST on July 07, 2007
Not that I dont think that wave will develop...
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741. PSLHokie
1:43 PM EST on July 07, 2007
PTDY in that area looks normal Drakoen. Pressure is not low, but looks to have fallen slowly over the last few days. The drop in pressure is also well in front of any hint of the COC. Given this, it may not be associated with the wave.

Lets see what the PTDY does in a few hours, see if the press. continues to fall.
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740. Drakoen
6:49 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
lol cch. I highly DOUBT that. Unless some freak event happens.
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739. weatherblog
6:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Seems we may have 97L located at around 45W. If shear is low enough and convection remains, some slow development is possibler as it enters the caribbean. 96L made the path more favorable for the possibly-soon-to-be (97L)...

Let's see how the convection holds out and if it's low makes it to the surface.

We'll see later tonight...
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738. cchsweatherman
6:45 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
Waves off Africa are getting more active and organized with clear rotation as they keep coming off. We'll see Invest 97 tonight.
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737. Drakoen
6:45 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
If its me your talking about you are mistaken. I was just something i noticed when i was scanning the atlantic.
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736. msphar
6:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2007
weather in the central atlantic is a major concern to me, any one guessing about this area catches my attention. You for instance championed 96L until it was totally destroyed by SAL and shear, now I know to take what you say with a large grain of salt.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.