Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1236. FLfishyweather
4:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
anyone here? hello? :(
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1235. FLfishyweather
4:30 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
good luck baybuddy. I wish u best of luck
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1234. Baybuddy
4:28 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Anyway, I'm gonna sign off and go back to bed for awhile. I'll holler at you guys next weekend. Be Well.
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1233. Baybuddy
4:25 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Well, I just want to feel good again! I have a great doc and surgeon. I am just ready to get it over with.
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1232. Patrap
11:23 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Well your 9years younger than me.Im sure you'll get the best of Care. Send us a message via a friend to let us know how you fared.
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1231. FLfishyweather
4:23 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
wow Baybuddy... I pity you
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1230. Baybuddy
4:22 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Thanks Patrap.
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1229. Baybuddy
4:20 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Yikes! Thats a fever! I'm getting a new valve and a maze procedure. Kind of freaking out (only 38).
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1228. Patrap
11:20 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Youll be first in my prayers Baybuddy..the Heart is a long ordeal...,best of luck.
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1227. FLfishyweather
4:18 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
baybuddy I was just sick too!

103.2 fever
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1226. hurricane23
4:17 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
The overall tropical atlantic looks quite the next few 2-3 weeks with development unlikely in the near term.

In a normal season june and july are ususally weak months for tropical cyclone development but as you can see the potential is there for things to ramp can quickly once we move into august,september and ocotber.



Graphic-

grpahic
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1225. FLfishyweather
4:13 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
hey all im back from my haircut and let me tell you I look sooooo good!
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1224. Baybuddy
4:14 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Good morning everyone! I've been out sick for a while, going in for open heart surgery tomorrow AM. anything cooking?
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1223. catastropheadjuster
4:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Thank you all for telling me where to go and look. It's nice to see some good conversation on here. I will go back and read that. Thanks agian. And nice to see ya aquak.
Sheri
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1222. RL3AO
10:42 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
If you want something interesting CA, head to the Pacific.

1
1221. aquak9
11:39 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
Hi Sheri! hahaha, like I'M gonna know anything! you don't know me very well, do ya, hahaha...

So far, I think we can expect a quiet coupla weeks, or at least a peaceful 10 days or so. Nash28 posted a repost earlier here, that gave a good summary of what we might expect.
The A/B high never really completely anchors in one definite spot with definite edges. And many folks are thinking that the "LaNada" (neutral conditions) may quickly slide into LaNina later in the Season™.
Read nash28's post on this blog from 10:15am your time, see if that helps.
Great to see ya!
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1220. moonlightcowboy
3:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Sheri, go back about 10 posts to Nash's repost of StormW's take on it.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1219. K8eCane
3:39 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
the bermuda high is not stationary and set in stone you guys
it moves around
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1218. catastropheadjuster
3:30 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Aquak9: Good Morning. Anything interesting out there? So do ya think it's gonna be a quite season or is it going to show it's ugly side later in the season. Do you know how the BH might be setting up does it look good for us in the GOM or Florida? Sorry so many questions I am just wondering and I haven't seen ya in a while.
Thank You,
Sheri
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1217. IKE
10:33 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
I'm not sure...that's almost 600 miles. Maybe the system around 50W is the moisture that the models have cruising through the Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1216. hurricane23
3:22 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
We'll see what happens with the overall situation but iam still keeping my hopes up for another quite season.Adrian
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1215. moonlightcowboy
3:27 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Ike, smack in the Itcz. Can the wave at 10n, 40w catch up to that area and slide off that curve in the wave?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1214. IKE
10:24 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
The only thing I've seen is around 9.5N, 49W...a blowup of convection.
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1213. moonlightcowboy
3:21 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Good morning, everyone!

Nothing to watch today?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1212. nash28
3:20 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Ok gang, gotta get my rear in gear and cut the backyard... *groans*

It's very hot.... Oh boy:-)
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1211. aquak9
11:17 AM EDT on July 08, 2007
Sophi. First g'morning and welcome to WU.

Many folks have been here a long time, literally years. We stay up all night together, look at every little cloud together, and most importantly, we learn from each other. Amidst that learning, we've seen each other go through worrying, heartbreak and even death.

Please do not expect to be guided by postings on this site. Although many here are extremely knowledgable, many more of us throw out our crazy predictions and questions, knowing that we are safe because this is a LEARNING environment.

Most folks here try to help each other. The NWS and NHC are the guiders, and they are the ones to follow.

This post is in no way meant to be inflammitory or condescending.

Once again, welcome to WU.
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1210. nash28
3:13 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I would like to post a reply from StormW regarding the pattern.... Very good information and it is explained very well.


Posted By: StormW at 5:40 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

Posted By: sporteguy03 at 3:43 PM GMT on July 07, 2007.

Morning Storm, Nash!

I think Nash already alluded to some things so far but Storm what trends are you noticing as we head towards August with Shear, SSTs, Dust, SOI etc? I nother words are the ingreidents there for more storms or less storms? Not asking for a number or anything just was curious what you see?

I still feel we may have a setup close to 2004...maybe not exactly...but close. I'm still not changing my view on La Nina. I think it will take better hold during the heart of the season. If this holds true and develops (porbably strong neutral to moderate), then that means for one thing the jetstream will have to respond to the cooler water off the South American coast. The pattern is such that it has signaled La Nina. The ocean then responds to this...then our jetstream responds to the La Nina or El Nino, whatever the case may be. So, as far as shear, it would appear that the nodels are slowly trending toward reduced shear. I f we go to a true La Nina, then it would seem that the wind shear would have to respond. I know from what I've seen in the models that the A/B high eventually sinks south and stretches westward. I feel that when we do start to get active, it's just gonna crank. One thing I want to mention is, I think with intensity, that we are going to see storms ramp up quickly right before landfall because of the warmer SST anomalies closer to land. I still believe we will have an above normal season, but not extremely busy. I'll point out again, we had a moderate El Nino last season and wound up with 10 total systems. I think the SAL should settle down in August, especially if the A/B high shifts south and west and weakens enough. I know the ECMWF seasonal forecast model is showing a good chance at somewhat above average rainfall over the African continent, so we should see a cut in the SAL. Once the SOI gets back up good in the positive range, we should see more African wave train action, and should see cooler SST anomalies in the equatorial PAC off the South American coast.
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1209. IKE
10:11 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Check out that wave at 50W...notice the convection firing up....

Here's a visible loop on it....

Link

May not mean much...who knows.
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1208. nash28
3:11 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Yeah, models predicting formation is hit and miss. Garbage in=garbage out.
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1207. weatherboykris
3:09 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
And activity should pick up in a week or so with the favorable MJO moving through.Don't pay too much attention to the lack of model support for storms.When was the last time they nailed a formation two weeks out?96L went un noticed until it was actually there.
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1206. nash28
3:07 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
As he and I have discussed, go visit StormW's blog. He really explains it very well. Very good information.

Link
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1205. weatherboykris
3:06 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
As far as what I think for steering currents this year...I'm noticing on the GFS that it's calling for a trough to extend down to near the Carolinas,with the BH stuck right under that(essentially over or just off of the NE FL/GA coasts).That would protect the Carolinas,but Florida and the Gulf would be in for it.I still think it's too early to say for certain,though,as remember even in 2004 this time of year there were very strong troughs coming down.Then all of a sudden it changed and there was a big ridge.
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1204. nash28
3:03 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
23- I know that's what Dr. Masters said, but that was during his June outlook and his first two weeks of July outlook.

I was referring to end of month/early August. We'll always have troughiness. It's the strength and poitioning of them that will determine the weakness in the ridge and where that falls.
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1203. hurricane23
3:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 2:58 PM GMT on July 08, 2007.

Its interesting nash cause ive actually asked dr.masters his thoughts on the current pattern and his responce was this year looks similar to 2006 and the bermuda high was in its normal location with no signs of similar setup to 04-05.


The pattern is changing...the high is stronger...the troughs are weakening it..but it's building back in...

This pattern coming up does not look like 2006.

I will again as dr.masters again to see if he agree's but again lets hope the trofs rule this year again.
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1202. IKE
10:01 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Have a nice day...I know about where you live...nice area.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1201. MrNiceville
2:57 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Heck - nearly neighbors - I'm at 20 and Mid-Bay Bridge road.

I was here for each of them - wife and kids tried to persuade me to leave for Ivan, but stuck it out. Dennis was nothing much here. Opal, well, Okaloosa got a completely new power grid thanks to her.

Well, gotta run - time for church...
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1200. IKE
9:58 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: Sophistimom at 9:56 AM CDT on July 08, 2007.
Oh, byu the way, stop wasting your time at work, talking about your waffles, and haircuts. Do that on your free time, huh?


Calm down...what's wrong?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1199. IKE
9:57 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Its interesting nash cause ive actually asked dr.masters his thoughts on the current pattern and his responce was this year looks similar to 2006 and the bermuda high was in its normal location with no signs of similar setup to 04-05.


The pattern is changing...the high is stronger...the troughs are weakening it..but it's building back in...

This pattern coming up does not look like 2006.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1198. IKE
9:55 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Yo bud...4 miles NW...

Eloise country...Ivan...Dennis....OPAL(the buzzsaw)....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1197. hurricane23
2:56 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 2:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2007. (hide)
I have mentioned this many times over the last few weeks, and I believe it bears repeating...

Our pattern is setting up similar to the one we saw in 2004. Now, that does not mean we are in for four landfalling hurricanes in FL. There is no way anyone could possibly predict that.

What it means is that the A/B High is setting up shop in a similar position to what it did in late July of '04. We were also in an ENSO pattern somewhat similar to where we are now, and actually closer to El Nino.

Its interesting nash cause ive actually asked dr.masters his thoughts on the current pattern and his responce was this year looks similar to 2006 and the bermuda high was in its normal location with no signs of similar setup to 04-05.

My personal take on things we have indeed had very persistent trofiness of the east coast of the united states over the last 2 months or so and given that its possible we could continue to see this overall pattern continue as sometimes they can get stuck and remain in place for months at a time.If it continues i see the gulf at lower risk this season and florida through the carolina's at a normal to above normal risk.Adrian
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1195. MrNiceville
2:54 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Wait a minute - synapses just started clicking - you're in DeFuniak?
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1193. IKE
9:52 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: MrNiceville at 9:52 AM CDT on July 08, 2007.
Which storm was that, Patrap?

I don't remember anyone in my family getting agitated over a landfalling storm at this point 2 years ago...

IKE - that was one heck of a storm - it passed through Niceville around 3:30 AM this morning - woke everyone in the house up...


It started here about midnight. It went on for over an hour....

2.96 inches of rain....without a tropical system making landfall!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1192. nash28
2:52 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
I'd say that's a reasonable outcome Ike. At the very least TD3 by the thrid week.
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1191. MrNiceville
2:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Which storm was that, Patrap?

I don't remember anyone in my family getting agitated over a landfalling storm at this point 2 years ago...

IKE - that was one heck of a storm - it passed through Niceville around 3:30 AM this morning - woke everyone in the house up...
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1190. IKE
9:50 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 9:43 AM CDT on July 08, 2007.
Good morning...

I see things on the quite side across the atlantic basin for the next 2-3 weeks as we move into the more active period in august and september for tropical cyclone activity.Adrian


That'll get everyone fired up to hang around the blog....

I'm thinking they'll be at least one Atlantic system within the next 12 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1189. nash28
2:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
We'll start getting active by about the thrid week of July.
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1188. hurricane23
2:39 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Good morning...

I see things on the quite side across the atlantic basin for the next 2-3 weeks as we move into the more active period in august and september for tropical cyclone activity.Adrian
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1187. Patrap
9:40 AM CDT on July 08, 2007
2years ago last night. 7 weeks before Katrina

Link
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1186. sporteguy03
2:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Dr.Masters when you said 70% of a Tropical Storm in July was that thru July 15th or the whole month?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.