Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1434. Drakoen
8:57 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
There is currently 20kts of wind shear over the system. Unless it pulls a Barry its not gonna develop lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1432. sporteguy03
8:55 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
Relax, even if something does develop we have days to prepare and watch. Maybe you should go prepare your home and get supplies now if your that concerned. A local met around Orlando said Sunny days are the best time to go to your hardware store because everyone is at the beach:)
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1430. stormybil
8:54 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Drakoen, see the blob just east of the islands out there? I think that may develop into something

thats been my thinking too but the blog forcasters says sheer is to high but we keep watching it it looks good in the daytime lets see what happens tonight
1428. Drakoen
8:54 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
MLC the dreaded Gulf Stream...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1427. Drakoen
8:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 8:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007.

Drakoen, see the blob just east of the islands out there? I think that may develop into something.


yes i do. Upper level winds are unfavorable for development. Next....
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1425. moonlightcowboy
8:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSSTfcst.gif

...it's gonna be really hot water!
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1424. MrNiceville
8:47 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael;

Two items of importance - a battery capable weather radio and a full tank of gas.

Your local authorities will release evacuation orders from the EOC. The orders will be very specific about who is in eminent danger and who is in potential danger. Heed their advice.

Up here in the panhandle (Destin/Niceville/Fort Walton), they do a great job of getting the word out quickly and widely. In New Orleans (I was there until 6 hours before Katrina hit), they have automated phone calls that go out to all residents of St. Tammany parish when an evac is mandated.

Finally, while I don't want to diminish the importance of vigilance, I have ridden out Cat 1, Cat 2 and Cat 3 hurricanes here. But, I'm 5 miles from the coast and 55 feet above sea level. Don't sweat yourself into a panic - just be prepared and listen to the authorities...
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1423. sporteguy03
8:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
The best thing to do is is accept Hurricanes are an act of Nature or God like a paralyzing snowstorm which I know you can get in Chicago both can be life threatening but if you act prepare and respond you and your family will be safe. No reason to panic just be safe and act if need be. And if your told to do something don't wait.
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1422. Drakoen
8:51 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 8:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2007.

Call me crazy, but I believe something is forming in the Atlantic that will come into the gulf and become a big storm.


LOL. where?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1421. Drakoen
8:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
GOM and the Caribbean i expect to be the hot spot for stronger cyclones.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1419. sporteguy03
8:44 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
When Charley hit in 04 I was scared when my friend told me it was a Cat 4 I thought I might need to evacuate and I live in Clermont. Fortunately I called the Citizens hotline and they told me the apartment complex where I live was the safest. I was not use to such a strong hurricane. I am originally from Connecticut and I went through Hurricane's Bob and Gloria and those were nothing compared to a Florida Hurricane.
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1418. moonlightcowboy
8:47 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSP1fcst.gif

...with the B/A high set up like it is, this looks like a dangerous path with a free-flowing gas station all the way into the GOM
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1415. sporteguy03
8:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
The media, NOAA, your local law enforcement.
Michael if your that concerned go down to your town hall or county government website they will have info there. And in times of public emergency they most likely have a citizen's hotline you can call for evacauation, flood areas etc
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1412. sporteguy03
8:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
No offense if a storm like Katrina was coming and I lived near Tampa, St.Pete and was told to leave I'd evacuate. I remember hearing that a news station got damaged in West Palm Beach in 04 by one of the three Hurricanes and it was supposed to withstand Cat 5.

Besides theres always a first for everything I would not test a building's strength in a Cat 3, 4 or 5.
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1411. Patrap
3:38 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Plenty of WW-2 pics in the My Photos section of my blog.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
1410. Patrap
3:36 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
As a second generation Marine I know all to well the sacrifice. My Dad fought at the Battle of Okinowa in 45. Along with his brother. I served there from Sept 82 thru Sept 83.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
1408. groundman
8:16 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
For those of you who are saying this is a bust season?? Here is a quote from Dr. Masters:

Florida by Wednesday. The latest "early" track guidance for this system shows it roughly paralleling the coast of Cuba, so development of this system may be substantially hindered by interaction with land. Some of the computer models indicate development of this system into a tropical storm when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico later this week, when the large upper level high anchored over Mississippi that has been creating high shear over the Gulf finally moves off to the west. I'm not a believer, I think the environment for the remains of TD 10 will still be too hostile to permit a tropical storm from developing.

What day was that excerpt taken from?? August 22, 2005. I think TD 10 became TD 12 and so on to Katrina?? Someone here said go back and look @ Wilma for forecasting inconsistencies, I'm more familiar with Katrina so I went back to her.

I AM NOT CRITICIZING DR MASTERS or the NHC. I am criticizing anyone here who says ANY of the forecasts are written in stone. That's why this is such an exciting science or art, it's so variable. And I was pleased to see some of the names from now on back then. I will pay more attention to those who correctly forecast Katrina in the blog. IKE, Stormjunkie, and lefty420 and I apologize for those whom I have left out but those caught my eye.

That said, Dr Masters statement was 6-7 days before the most devastating hurricane known recently hit. We just need to all keep on our toes and please don't dismiss those who see a swirl or wrapping where others don't, that's how Katrina started and I for one would like 5 days notice instead of 2 for a potential landfall.

Now back to my archives and off my soapbox. LOL
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1407. Drakoen
8:36 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Look at thie TCHP. If anything were to form late next week it would have a pretty good chance.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1406. msphar
8:29 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Patrap that is an historic picture. I hope you can preserve it. Nimitz Hill is still the Naval Headquarters, many happy memories there, but the price it cost this country to retake it is immeasurable.
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1405. FLfishyweather
8:31 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Heck I got a generator and three things of gas to go with it. Unfortunatly, the gas wasn't safe, so I had to throw it out.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
1404. Alec
4:34 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
ok it works now JP..
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1401. Drakoen
8:31 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
i meant july read the post again....

rain right over the lake just where we need it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1400. nash28
8:31 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Man, what a friggin idiot!!!!! I gotta go. I may get banned...

Oh, and Atsa is a moron.
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1399. Alec
4:30 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Your "new" blog went missing and previous blog popped back up....sorta flip flopped..
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1398. sporteguy03
8:27 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
Never be on a high level during a Hurricane winds are stronger up there, be on the ground floor in a sturdy building. Michael don't panic your safe as JP said just be prepared if your told to leave do so buildings can be replaced lives can't. Go to the NHC website for Hurricane Prep info. Nows the time to prepare while its quiet. Heck I bought a jug of water yesterday because I saw it rather be ready.
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1396. FLfishyweather
8:28 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Jun 12th passed Drakeon
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
1394. msphar
8:23 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Sporteguy03, I would like to claim to be one of those island guys, as I am occasionally on a boat that I have moored at Roosvelt Roads on the eastern tip of Puerto Rico. I'll be there before the next storm comes through, I hope.
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1393. Alec
4:27 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
JP, you said you needed some assistance earlier and your blog went wacko.....
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1392. Drakoen
8:26 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
the season will not suck i expect it to be above average. I also expect more landfall systems with the current set up of the BH and the weakening of the troughs. We might even see something next week with the MJO coming into play and decreasing shear. July 12th is when it should be here.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614
1388. moonlightcowboy
8:23 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Surge is the water a hurricane pushes up as it approaches shore.

A number of factors contribute to its size: wind strength, air pressure, the size of a storm's eye, the distance hurricane force winds extend from the center, the speed at which it comes ashore and the angle at which it hits.

So a Category 4 hurricane, if it's especially slow and large, can have a much larger surge than a stronger Category 5 storm. The Gulf Coast is more vulnerable to a high surge than the Atlantic coast because of its shallow continental shelf. Waters rise more easily when there's less of it to push.

A mistake many people made in deciding to ride out Hurricane Katrina, a Category 4 storm, was thinking it wouldn't be as bad as Hurricane Camille, a Category 5 storm that struck the same area 36 years ago.

"This storm was much larger than Camille," said Pat Fitzpatrick, a research professor at Mississippi State University's GeoResources Institute. "What people need to realize is they need to pay attention to the size of the storm and not just the intensity."

Hurricane force winds extended 125 miles from Katrina's center, compared to 60 miles for Camille, he said. Also, Katrina's eye was 32 miles wide even though a storm of its intensity normally has an eye that is 10 miles wide.
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1387. KoritheMan
3:25 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Wasn't 2004 quiet until the end of July though? Things could pick up at any time it seems. I have seen where wind shear may be reduced in the gulf/Atlantic soon.

Let the wishcasting begin! For good or for bad.
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1386. Drakoen
8:24 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
michael wind shear is already low in the Gulf. Its just that nothing is there lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30614

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.