Transcript of the NHC press conference; QuikSCAT science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The National Hurricane Center political controversy continues today. In an Associated Press story released this morning, Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center commented on Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT claims, saying:

"He has been very loudly saying if it failed our forecasts for landfalling storms would be degraded, that warning areas would need to be expanded. None of that is the case, and he knows that we feel that way. The science is not there to back up the claims that he's making."

This was the same case I made in my blog yesterday. However, in comments published in the Miami Herald today, Dr. Bob Atlas, a QuikSCAT scientist who runs NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory on Virginia Key, rose to defend Proenza. To quote from the Herald:

He said the report challenged by Masters, even if not yet published, appears to be a "rigorous study" that provides the "most comprehensive study of QuikSCAT data related to hurricane predictions."

Atlas said nothing he has heard Proenza say about QuikSCAT has made him wince, though Atlas added that NOAA is developing ways to mitigate the loss of QuikSCAT data.

In addition, he said, Proenza's estimates of 16 percent and 10 percent have been misunderstood: They apply to the accuracy of one of many computerized forecast models rather than actual, end-result predictions by hurricane forecasters.

"Bill's worked very hard and very well to position the hurricane center to interact well with researchers," Atlas said.


Dr. Atlas was mis-quoted by Time Magazine, who printed this:

Bob Atlas, director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, insist that Proenza's concerns "are very well founded. QuickScat is the most valuable forecasting tool." Atlas says he applauds Proenza's outspokenness, predicting it will "accelerate the effort to replace QuickScat with an even better scatterometer satellite."

I talked with Dr. Atlas this morning, and what he actually said is that "NCEP's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) have referred to QuikSCAT as the most valuable tool they have." OPC issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Dr. Atlas did not say QuickSCAT is the most valuable forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting which it is not. Dr. Atlas and I both agree on what the science says about QuikSCAT. I respect his support for Proenza, and hope that Proenza's superiors in Washington take into account all the facts in the case. I did my best to present what I know of the science in my blog yesterday. No one knows the full story of what's going on at NHC, but this morning's press conference, done by staff members at NHC who oppose Proenza, will help clarify things. A transcript was sent to me by WTVJ, the NBC Station in Miami.

Transcript of this morning's press conference

Senior Hurricane Specialist James Franklin
We have been a family here, we are a small group of about 50 people. When things are really happening, we've got a Katrina out there or a Rita type of storms, everybody needs to stop what they're doing and pull together and make sure our message gets out and that we're doing the best job that we can to make the best forecast. We've got a lot of people pulling together to do that. That takes a certain amount of teamwork and appreciation of sense of family and he's destroying that, he's destroying that.

He's divided the staff, and it's hard to know how we're going to be able to come together with him here. One thing that happened yesterday when the staff met, and talked about these issues and a lot of people learned for the first time about some of the issues going on yesterday, and that brought a lot of the staff together. You saw a number of people speaking out both in terms of 3 to 23 yesterday. We found out what was really going on here. and I think you're going to see more later on.

I was very very gratified, we had a wonderful meeting with staff, including those who have been prior supporters of Bill. And we're learning a lot of things for the very first time. There we're a number of people who agreed with us, didn't like the idea of going to the press, but felt he needed to go, there are a fair number of people who didn't sign the letter for that reason. They wanted to keep it in house, and I certainly understand that. About 70-percent of the people who were in the discussion yesterday, put their names on the paper.

I think we've learned an awful lot about Bill here, during the last six months that maybe we didn't know.

We would have liked to have seen Bill realize that he didn't have the support of the staff and step down. That's not going to happen apparently. The process, the Dept. of Commerce process, I imagine needs to go forward. I think it would be nice if they could take him out of the office while that process goes on, those are not decisions we can make.

Lixion Avila-Senior Hurricane Forecaster
-Been here longer than any other forecaster
-Worked for 5-hurricane directors

I was Bill's stronger supporter, I went with him to the Caribbean with the hurricane hunter plane. To develop the hurricane hunter plan, like I did with all the directors. And I'm very upset (loud truck drives by) that he's been misrepresenting the views of the National Hurricane Center, and the hurricane plan. That plan was developed by the previous five hurricane directors, it's a jewel, it's the best in the world and it's been something that Neil Frank, Bob Sheets and Jerry Jarrel and developed for 20-years in six months he wants to destroy that plan.

For example he, I'm a scientist not a manager, and I don't know anything about management, but I can tell you that he came to my office telling me that he wants my advice, that he can not work here if he doesn't hear my advice.. very helpful with the previous directors, and he asked me, and I said the first thing you need to do is quit talking about that QuikSCAT and tell him that is out of line, will help all the problems. And he says he will do that, instead he goes back to the media, and you don't publish that you only publish the good things he said.

He said that we don't want to work with him, because he brings many good ideas, and we don't want to do that. I want you to know that he has not made a hurricane forecast since 1964.

That satellite, I gave that example to many people here. There are many things more important than that satellite. Of course I want that someone to have that satellite. The example I gave everybody is like having a BMW with leather seats. If you don't have leather seats that BMW is going to ruin, and we are going to make a very damn good forecast this year, with Bill or without Bill, and I think. I'm being very emotional, because I was his strongest supporter and I feel betrayed.

I was the last forecaster to join the group. They were smarter than me, I was giving him one more chance. Two day's ago when he came to my office and said please, what should I do to solve this problem? And I was very naive and I told him you need to stop fighting, pretending you're David against Goliath, and all those things with NOAA. The public thinks you're a hero, but you're not. You just need to develop your time and saving the hurricane program that your predecessor developed so nicely, this castle that has been done here. and he went back and said he was going to do that, he went to the media and said the opposite, and that's the end, thank you.

James Franklin
I want to say something about the QuikSCAT issue because, because that's important. The QuikSCAT satellite, is important to us, it does a lot of good things for us. We want a next generation advanced instrument, however there are a lot of things that current instrument cannot do, and by misrepresenting the case for that satellite, he has made it seem so urgent and so important. That what we're afraid of, that we'll get a quick fix, a copy of the kind of thing with existing technology. And within a couple of years we'll be in exactly the same position same situation. QuikSCAT is not a tool to help us improve track forecasts, that's how it's been misrepresented. Bill waves this NOAA report that some of my colleagues worked on and said look this is it. That report did not address track forecast accuracy, that is another one of the misrepresentations.

QuikSCAT is important to help us understand the size of the wind field, the strength, the current instrument has a lot of trouble with rain, a lot of rain in tropical cyclones. We need to move forward if we take the time develop the technology further and in a few more years get at the technology that really helps us get at the intensity problem, that's where our forecast problem really is. We've made great strides with track, as you know we're having a lot more problems with intensity, and doing the QuikSCAT problem correctly, taking our time, developing new technology is one of the tools that we need to help solve the intensity problem. But because of the way it's been portrayed we're afraid that there's going to be a quick fix that's not going to address the track problem, and it doesn't address the track problem and it isn't going to end up helping us with what the forecasters really know will help us.

We've see members of the Congress talking about how the information from the recognizance aircraft are inferior to QuikSCAT, we're afraid that somebody might get it in their heads to fund a stopgap QuikSCAT to take funds from recon aircraft. There is no comparison, there is not a forecaster here who believes QuikSCAT is more important than recon aircraft or other tools we have. But because this issue has been misreported we're afraid we might lose what we have.

We've got forecasters still back at there desks doing their jobs and they'll continue doing that. But there's a lot of people losing sleep over this, and as we get into august September, October, I don't think you want a bunch of tired sick, forecasters working the forecast desk. I think it takes a full effort. It's not just about doing our jobs, we need to go over and beyond when those storms are coming, and that's becoming harder to do.

I think when things get busy, it's going to be harder for us to work effectively with the situation we have here.

Vivian Jorge, Administrative Officer
As far as myself in the administration, since Bill got here, is the turmoil in the administration, because in my sense, bill(sat breakup) likes controversy. And I myself have been asked to do things that I know are not procedure but have been asked to do because that's the way he wants things done, and I've worked at hurricane center since 1985.

Unfortunately I think a director needs to unite his staff and he needs to be a calming person. It doesn't need to be a no new ideas. All the directors have different ideas.. from Neil on down to Max, they were different, they were not the same, their management styles were not the same, but they united the staff, the listened to the staff, especially the folks who have been here for so many years. .. and I think in the case of bill he doesn't feel that's necessary, he always feels he knows best. And that again in our case, there's never been so many closed doors, so much intrigue at the hurricane center as now and that's really unfortunate. I can't tell you how proud I am to work here.

--End of Press Conference

QuikSCAT science
Enough of politics, let's talk science! I've communicated several times over the past few weeks with Dr. Paul Chang, a NOAA QuikSCAT scientist whose QuikSCAT web page I've linked to hundreds of times in my blogs over the past two years. He did not want to comment on the politics of the QuikSCAT issue (smart man!), but did ask me print these comments:

The need for an operational ocean surface vector wind satellite system like QuikSCAT (or actually better) goes much further than the hurricane issue, and the push for it started long before Bill Proenza became the NHC director. NHC actually wants/needs something better so that it can provide them with reliable and accurate information (intensity and structure) within all hurricanes. A few other users of QuikSCAT data include: The Department of Defense's Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, which has a much larger area to forecast for. They have no Hurricane Hunter data and much less surface and upper air data to work with, and thus use QuikSCAT winds quite a bit. This is a similar situation for NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center located in Hawaii. QuikSCAT has also had significant positive impacts at the Ocean Prediction Center, which issues the high seas marine forecasts and warnings for the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This has led to the introduction of a warning category for hurricane force winds for the most dangerous extratropical cyclones. I know of at least a few private marine weather companies that routinely use QuikSCAT. The Australians, French and many others use QuikSCAT routinely for tropical storm forecast/analysis, and for marine weather in general.

The track degradation impact numbers that Bill Proenza has been stating publicly come from a limited data study for the 2003 season in the Atlantic with the GFS model only. I believe Bob Atlas did some earlier work studying the impact of QuikSCAT on Hurricane Cindy using an earlier version of the NCEP global model. Both of these studies did show promising positive impacts. They are of course limited studies, and a more in-depth study is warranted.

The GFS model hurricane track forecasts are just one piece of guidance that the NHC human forecasters use to generate the official track forecast, so the impact in a particular model guidance package does not directly translate to the same impact in the actual NHC officially issued track forecast. Additionally, QuikSCAT data are also used directly by forecasters at NHC and elsewhere, but this impact tends to be more difficult to quantify.

The aircraft are a very important hurricane operational and research tool, and no one involved in the QuikSCAT follow-on effort has ever said QuikSCAT (or its successor) should or could replace the role of the hurricane aircraft flights, just as no one has said that aircraft could replace the role of satellites. They are very complementary platforms, but they fulfill different roles.


It would be a shame if in the hubbub over Bill Proenza's push to get a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite we lose sight of what all the scientists agree on--QuikSCAT is a vital tool in weather prediction that needs to be replaced with a better satellite. Both Dr. Atlas and Dr. Chang are working on research specifically designed to study just how much impact QuikSCAT has on landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, which no studies have yet quantified.

Read Margie' Kieper's View From the Surface Blog for more on the QuikSCAT/Bill Proenza matter.

Jeff Masters

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1486. bobw999
5:34 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Every time a hurricane hits my area (Lake Worth, Florida) the local news tells me not to use duct tape to cover up the windows.
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1485. nash28
9:33 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Guys, please do not bash those who are learing...

Don't be an ass.
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1484. IKE
4:33 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
There's a better chance of rain in the Florida panhandle tomorrow afternoon...then it gets hotter for midweek...then the high breaks down next weekend and another trough heads into the southeast.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1482. IKE
4:30 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: MrNiceville at 4:26 PM CDT on July 08, 2007.
Thanks for the link, Patrap...

Ike - more weather headed our way this evening, it seems...


The closest I see is in SE Louisiana..unless that makes it over here without dissipating, it looks like a rain free night.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1481. eye
9:30 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
BEWARE OF THE 2 INCH STORM SURGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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1477. MrNiceville
9:24 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Thanks for the link, Patrap...

Ike - more weather headed our way this evening, it seems...
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1476. aquak9
5:19 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
Hey, Patrap...did anyone use Duct tape, plastic and sandbags during K_??

Did they help? Maybe the guerra family shoulda listened to Randomicheal's NY friend.

Random...if i hadn't already figured out who you are, I'd be mad...but this is funny....and so below your usual modus operandi.
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1474. Patrap
4:21 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
4-panel Water Vapor Loop

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
1471. stormybil
9:14 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
bil this isnt a professional blog

i know but most of you deserve the title BLOG FORCASTERS . WAY BETTER THAN TWC IMO . oh dont forget fri the 13 is this week was there ever a hurricane that hit land on fri.july 13 . hmmmmm
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1470. IKE
4:16 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 4:15 PM CDT on July 08, 2007.
Duct tape is like toilet paper, you don't want to get caught without it; but, the truth is, duct tape doesn't help much with 100 (plus) mph winds and 20 feet of water.


And it's a pain in the rear to get completely off of the windows. I know...I made the mistake once!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1469. MrNiceville
9:09 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
MLC;

Appreciate your situation too. I was back in Mandeville 3 days afterward with a van full of stuff for my folks place - and it was needed. I spent the next week cutting up pines, magnolias and pecans that were felled by the storm. There's nothing to sober you up like getting on a roof to put up a tarp and seeing the local area damage...

Even 60 days later, after I returned with the Marines (MFR was sent TAD to KC for 2 months), things were a wreck anywhere south of the lake. Heck, when I left NOLA for another contract in Feb this year, the place was still a mess, but at least there were signs of life returning.
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1468. moonlightcowboy
9:13 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Duct tape is like toilet paper, you don't want to get caught without it; but, the truth is, duct tape doesn't help much with 100 (plus) mph winds and 20 feet of water.
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1467. Patrap
4:14 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Leave early when told...run from the water,Hide from the wind.Leave early.Best advice.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
1466. Patrap
4:12 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Storm Surge Katrina, St. Bernard Parish Aug 29th 2005
Guerra Family..In their own words.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
1462. stormybil
9:08 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
plus this blog helps greatly...but it isn't etched in stone anywhere.

true true and all the forcasters here always are the first one to call systems before the nhc does so stay tuned and stay safe this season and keep it right here for all the info you need . man im starting to sound like the weather channel .
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1461. eye
9:04 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
michael, be careful what you believe on here, there are some experts on this blog in the science of "wishcasting" especially if there is a snowballs chance in you know where of it coming within 1000 miles of them.
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1459. Drakoen
9:08 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Good luck making it into the Gulf lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
1458. sporteguy03
9:05 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael you sound random with that comment? I give up why don't you think no matter what happens I will prepare and be safe instead of think you will be hit. Trust me you don't want to go through a hurricane and if your that bothered by one move further inland or somewhere else. No matter where you live weather can always play a factor in your life and you can't live in fear.
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1455. IKE
4:05 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 4:04 PM CDT on July 08, 2007.
Drakoen, yes that is the area I am watching. I don't know if it will develop soon, but as it moves into the gulf I do believe it will develop. I see some swirl and convection. Warm water and low sheer is in the gulf. It will feed there and possible turn right into Tampa Bay forcing me to evacuate.


Very...very small chance of that happening. Just keep a look out on the tropics.

You'll always have some on here saying it won't develop vs. others that say it will. Best to keep checking in with what the NHC says....plus this blog helps greatly...but it isn't etched in stone anywhere.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1452. Patrap
4:05 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Leave now..beat the rush.

5
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
1451. Drakoen
9:05 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: randommichael at 9:04 PM GMT on July 08, 2007.

Drakoen, yes that is the area I am watching. I don't know if it will develop soon, but as it moves into the gulf I do believe it will develop. I see some swirl and convection. Warm water and low sheer is in the gulf. It will feed there and possible turn right into Tampa Bay forcing me to evacuate.


LOL so you prepared with your flashlight, gas generator, and shutters?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
1449. MrNiceville
8:58 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael;

Don't sweat the small stuff - and it's all small stuff...

I think that your friends were either mis-informed or the first non-warning was very anomolous. Anyone who lives on the GOM will tell you that their forecast offices and law enforcement are VERY conservative about anything bigger than a TD and will call for evacuations.

You won't get stuck in the traffic if you leave when told to do so. I left Mandeville at 3AM on August 29 and had a straight shot to Niceville with no traffic. I understand that traffic got bad around 5 or 6 AM. Moral of the story - leave when told to do so.
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1448. Patrap
4:03 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY



Northwest Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image
(From GOES-EAST Satellite)
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
1446. sporteguy03
9:02 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
so if you know its going to develop you should be preparing right?
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1445. Patrap
4:01 PM CDT on July 08, 2007
Atlantic Tropical Basin WV loop

Link

No areas of concern or interest.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
1442. Drakoen
9:00 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Your talking about this, right? The disorganized tropical wave embedded into the ITCZ? If it is relax. We might have something next week to track but for now you can sit back.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30830
1440. aquak9
4:53 PM EDT on July 08, 2007
--just waking up

ok, certainly ya'll put altestic in his place, right? Comments like that have no need on THIS blog. Plenty of other blogs full of closed-minded hatred...send altestic on his merry way.
Randommichael....if you have just now "found" this site, then you'll get plenty of warning about everything.

Harrrumph. I obviously need more coffee. AGAIN.
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1439. moonlightcowboy
8:54 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Posted By: MrNiceville at 8:53 PM GMT on July 08, 2007.

...Finally, while I don't want to diminish the importance of vigilance, I have ridden out Cat 1, Cat 2 and Cat 3 hurricanes here. But, I'm 5 miles from the coast and 55 feet above sea level. Don't sweat yourself into a panic - just be prepared and listen to the authorities...


...Niceville, appreciate your post; BUT, during Katrina I lived over 150 miles inland from landfall and we still had "consistent" CAT 3 winds, power out for over a week, most with no water, roofs with holes in them and trees down everywhere, no ice, NO GAS, traffic difficulty - especially trying to get someone medical care....tons of stuff. That being said, I know people that live further inland who will "evacuate" next time.

Michael, the best thing to do is "listen" to the authorities. If they say evac, then evac. Things will definitely heat up with storms in the coming weeks...just be prepared, have a plan and listen closely.

This a great place to stay informed, too. You can get info here you won't get otherwise.
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1437. sporteguy03
8:57 PM GMT on July 08, 2007
Michael,
That was unfortunate in Port Charlotte, but if you live in the cone of error you should be prepared, and Michael in 200MPH nothing will be left if that was the case I think the NHC would evacuate the whole West Coast with a Hurricane that strong.
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