Revolt at NHC; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

Share this Blog
1
+

The extraordinary political turmoil at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continued yesterday, with the release of a statement signed by nearly half of the staff calling for the immediate dismissal of director Bill Proenza. Front page stories in both the Miami Herald and Florida Sun-Sentinel detail the letter, which reads: "An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission. The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director. The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake. The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in." The letter is signed by 23 of the center's 49 employees, including almost the entire senior staff. Many NHC employees were on vacation, and did not have the opportunity to sign the letter.

The articles in the two newspapers also quote my blog from yesterday, where I present the case against Bill Proenza--his misrepresentation of the science of how much the QuikSCAT satellite influences hurricane track forecasts. I'll have more to say on the matter this afternoon, when I've had a chance to process some of the feedback on this.

Tropical update
A low pressure system (96L) with a well-defined spin is about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, moving westward towards the islands at 10-15 mph. This low continues to show sporadic heavy thunderstorm activity, but has been unable to overcome the large amount of dry air it is embedded in. It would appear that 96L's window of opportunity for developing into a tropical depression has closed, as wind shear has risen to 20 knots and is expected to remain at least 20 knots for the next two or three days. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Model tracks for 96L, the low pressure system approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

New disturbance off the east coast of Florida
An area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of Florida along an old frontal boundary. Long range radar out of Melbourne, FL shows a large disorganized area of showers off the coast. The area is under 20-25 knots of wind shear, and the shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots for at least the next two days in the region, which should prevent any development. The GFS computer model shows this disturbance moving off to the northeast over the weekend, but it could bring heavy rains to Florida and the Northwest Bahamas Friday and Saturday before it does so. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 215 - 165

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

214. nash28
4:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Yeah, I love the good doctor, but even I don't think he would really qualify to be Director of NHC.

As far as firing his staff for insubordination, good luck. What's he gonna do? Call Kelly Temp Service for help?

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
213. scwindsaloft
4:37 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Anyone have an idea when the moist air will return to the caribbean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
212. IKE
11:41 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
And I'll keep on watchin it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
211. sfranz
4:38 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

Nah - 96L has spun off its rotation and is chugging along straight line right into some very dry air. If it tapped the moisture the south and reestablished its circulation, it might have a descent chance.

Blob Watchers R Us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
210. IKE
11:40 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
What's his image?

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
208. IKE
11:33 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: StormThug at 11:29 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
do yall think if 96l makes it too the carribean it would have a chance too develope?


I'm not convinced it's degenerated to a wave. I still see a circulation and it's heading for the lower islands.

Props to 96L for surviving it's trek across the Atlantic.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
207. CosmicEvents
4:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Patrap....I'm not fighting with you. I just took afront that you would question my conscience(sp). That's ludicrous. The only reason that I post here is to try and raise the consciousness of the group, as you do. I just read your blog for the first time, and I commend you highly on it. I see that you've been here just a year. I would encourage you to go back again and read what I wrote at the time. In a nutshell, I was sickened with the calamity, and with this board.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
206. sfranz
4:26 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

Let me get this right - we've got a guy (Proenza) who is a bureaucracy veteran and is sitting only 3 years from retirement or less.

He's said he won't resign. In a Federal job it's a bugger to fire someone - and I just can't see "using an unpublished report with weaker methodology than we really would like to have" as holding up as ground for termination in anything approaching the real world.

Taking the fight public makes NHC look bad more than it makes Proenza look bad - and if he decides to sit tight, he could win this one.

Most people would decide that the whole thing is far to much trouble, but he might be willing to hold out until that pension kicks in. Has anyone checked to see when that might be?

If he's a real problem (and, face it, anyone would look weaker compared to Max Mayfield) the smart move would be to promote him out of trouble until he retires and let the whole thing die quietly.

Federal jobs aren't like private jobs. It's actually very hard to force someone to leave if they don't want to.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
205. StormThug
11:28 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
do yall think if 96l makes it too the carribean it would have a chance too develope?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
204. weatherboykris
4:28 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
LOL MP!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
203. WPBHurricane05
12:27 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
LOL!!! MP!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
202. Patrap
11:25 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
I dont swing ww.
I respond and move on.
But the referee shirt looks good on ya !


LMBO MP!..IMUSED he was,Proenza
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
201. tornadodude
4:22 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
politics.... sigh, that which many teenage boys dont care to discuss but it happens lol a hot stretch comin up here in s indiana.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
199. wunderwomen
12:24 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
well goin for lunch bbl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
198. TheCaneWhisperer
12:22 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Afternoon All!

Here Comes The Rain!
Complaining of not enough 3 weeks ago, now ummmmm, ponds are close to spilling over in many areas of Palm Beach Gardens and Jupiter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
197. wunderwomen
12:23 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
ding ding ding
fights over guys geez
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
196. Patrap
11:22 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
Ive made a note though ,thanx
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
195. Patrap
11:20 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
Give it a break CE..
The Paris reference wasnt for you.
It was for humor.Have an ice cream.

Your handle isnt gender specific.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
194. wunderwomen
12:21 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
ooops
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
193. auburn (Mod)
11:19 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
yes...EWF...that would bring on the rain for sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
192. ladyweatherbug
4:18 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
WW - thanx for that vote of confidence....Grandson is up and at 'em, so Gigi has to go for now. BBL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
191. EmmyRose
4:19 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Lady - I'm floatin out to ya with my ship -
tyler texas got hammered too last night
we're gettin it right now real good.
Yikes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
190. auburn (Mod)
11:17 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
the Kudzu and pine trees are dieing here in Alabama...Texas is hogging up all the rain...they need to learn to share...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
189. ladyweatherbug
4:16 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Hey Auburn....do you think we'd be successful if we did the rain dance to some good ole 80's Earth Wind & Fire??? *lmao*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
188. wunderwomen
12:15 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
*I think she can save them; o noooo dont do the danceeeeeeeeeeeeeeee*
*rain begins to pour*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
187. ladyweatherbug
4:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Emmy.....don't be so stingy....we'd love to have some of rain...family and friends in KS and OK have been flooded out of their homes. We've invited them here so that they can dry out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
186. CosmicEvents
4:12 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Patrap.....read my post again, and just take out the word "fun", which I said was the wrong word to use. There is nothing else in there, or in the archives, that would call for you to make your Paris Hilton reference about me, of all people on this board.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
185. auburn (Mod)
11:15 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
hey I will join ya in that rain Dance...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
184. EmmyRose
4:14 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO we have enough rain here in Texas - make sure you rain dance for YOUR area ONLY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
183. ladyweatherbug
4:11 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
StormW - as always...thank you. Excellent.

*going in to put on deer skin and grab drum to perform Indian rain dance*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
182. wunderwomen
12:10 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
*wunderwomen ducks, runs up the front, hides behind the desk, and awaites with terror in her eyes*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
181. auburn (Mod)
11:11 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 10:59 AM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Who would have thought that a satellite could cause all this trouble !.


LOL...so whats this gonna cause?



NASA is beginning to consider that 2012 might be a banner year for... something. According to one report, "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one." This would imply a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958 (around the time of the launching of Sputnik, when the Northern Lights wer sighted three times in Mexico). Assume that the Solar Max of 2012 will have a noticeable effect on cell phones, GPS, weather satellites, and other modern technolgies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
180. Patrap
11:10 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
I have ce
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
179. bluehaze27
4:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
For better or worse, there is no way Proenza is staying. Politics and living off the public till will win the day. He's right, those forecasters ARE worried about looking like they don't support NOAA if they agree with him. It IS totally political and they are worried about their jobs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
178. EmmyRose
4:08 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Brownie was out of nice looking shirts for the tv interviews couldn't take the job.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
176. WPBHurricane05
12:07 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Maybe cuz Brownie was busy and couldn't take the job?

Wasn't that Max's assistant? They should have given him the job.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
175. CosmicEvents
3:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Patrap....I didn't find the disaster of Katrina entertaining. Or the prelude to the storm, when disaster preparedness was an issue. I shouldn't have used the one word "fun" in my post. It was far from fun at the time or now. Why don't you spend some time reading the archives from this time and you'll see what I wrote then, and what others wrote. It's interesting, but not entertaining.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
174. ladyweatherbug
4:04 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Thanx, Pat....have the day off and can actually spend five minutes here. I truly can't express how much you and a few others have helped me understand the weather over the last few years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
173. EmmyRose
4:04 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Maybe cuz Brownie was busy and couldn't take the job?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
172. StormHype
4:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Altestic87 said:
zzzzzz...
Stop this political nonsense.


Um... some people tend to forget this is a blog and the blog owner has decided to make this issue the latest topic. Finally people are staying on topic instead of taking over Master's blog and making it their own forum for cut-n-pasting NHC products.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
171. wunderwomen
12:03 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
it has gotten so out of hand u know i think they should have kept it private and when they have new guy then tell everyone
*shame shame*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
170. WPBHurricane05
12:02 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Why did the NOAA give him the job if they new he hasn't made a forecast since the 1960's and has been working with the NWS not the NHC???
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
169. ladyweatherbug
4:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
MP - that's funny! Any ideas on this system off the east coast? Could NC Florida get some of it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
168. WPBHurricane05
12:01 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Definitely a political issue. Local 10 in Miami uses there political reporter to talk about the story. *rolls eyes and sighs*
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
167. ricderr
4:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Sorry, a global warming report after each hurricane update would drive me insane...

LMAO
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21770
166. Patrap
11:01 AM CDT on July 06, 2007
I know that luck,Ladybug..Good to see ya
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
165. Altestic87
12:01 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
zzzzzz...

Stop this political nonsense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 215 - 165

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.