Revolt at NHC; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The extraordinary political turmoil at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continued yesterday, with the release of a statement signed by nearly half of the staff calling for the immediate dismissal of director Bill Proenza. Front page stories in both the Miami Herald and Florida Sun-Sentinel detail the letter, which reads: "An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission. The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director. The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake. The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in." The letter is signed by 23 of the center's 49 employees, including almost the entire senior staff. Many NHC employees were on vacation, and did not have the opportunity to sign the letter.

The articles in the two newspapers also quote my blog from yesterday, where I present the case against Bill Proenza--his misrepresentation of the science of how much the QuikSCAT satellite influences hurricane track forecasts. I'll have more to say on the matter this afternoon, when I've had a chance to process some of the feedback on this.

Tropical update
A low pressure system (96L) with a well-defined spin is about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, moving westward towards the islands at 10-15 mph. This low continues to show sporadic heavy thunderstorm activity, but has been unable to overcome the large amount of dry air it is embedded in. It would appear that 96L's window of opportunity for developing into a tropical depression has closed, as wind shear has risen to 20 knots and is expected to remain at least 20 knots for the next two or three days. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Model tracks for 96L, the low pressure system approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

New disturbance off the east coast of Florida
An area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of Florida along an old frontal boundary. Long range radar out of Melbourne, FL shows a large disorganized area of showers off the coast. The area is under 20-25 knots of wind shear, and the shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots for at least the next two days in the region, which should prevent any development. The GFS computer model shows this disturbance moving off to the northeast over the weekend, but it could bring heavy rains to Florida and the Northwest Bahamas Friday and Saturday before it does so. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.

Jeff Masters

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365. MisterPerfect
6:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
So, how much would a new and improved quikSCAT cost again?

NASA buys $19 million Russian toilet system

CAPE CANAVERAL -- (AP) -- In space, a loo costs a lot.

NASA has agreed to pay $19 million for a Russian-built toilet system for the International Space Station. The figure may sound astronomical for a toilet in space, but NASA officials said it was cheaper than building their own.
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
364. MissBennet
6:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Now if only I could make 1 dollar each second, of every minute, of every hour, of every day... I'd be a billionaire in time to retire...
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362. BRBlogger
6:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Hey Folks. I just got a letter from a mole who has some inside scoop about the debacle going on over at the National Hurricane Center. I've posted it to my blog. Check it out here.

Margaret Saizan
Beyond Katrina: The Voice of Hurricane & Disaster Recovery
www.hurricane-katrina.org
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361. weathersp
2:33 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
If one spent a dollar every second, of every minute, of every hour, of every day...

31.7 Years

100 Billion = 3,170 Years

Dont worry Jesus you have only 1,163 years to go!
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
360. moonlightcowboy
6:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Kris is right, about 32 years!!!! Now imagine, 100 billion....yep, a bunch of planes could fly at that price!!!

...a bunch of things could make a difference with that kind of budget...research, experiments, etc....all at the cost of one (Katrina) storm, not to mention 4 or 5 landfalling canes.
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359. weatherboykris
6:34 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
31 years.
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358. weatherboykris
6:33 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
11,574 days moonlightcowboy.
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357. weatherboykris
6:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
It ain't hard to figure out who should go.
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356. moonlightcowboy
6:29 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:28 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
mlc the whole point is the seeding didnt work, all it did was add even more instability to system and the convection was only gone for a short amount of time, which means you need hundreds of planes to seed a hurricane constantly, that isnt realistic


Understand, Jp...but, figures closer to $100 billion??? You can fly a bunch of airplanes for that figure.

Most people have NO comprehension of how much a billion is -- If one spent a dollar every second, of every minute, of every hour, of every day...how long do you think it would take just to spend ONE billion dollars?

...answer in five posts from now...lol
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355. weatherboykris
6:30 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Kris--Ya think it is related to the apparent desire of NOAA to restructure and incorporate the NWS and NHC into the NOAA "home" and budget world?

All I know is that everything was ok for YEARS under Mayfield.We've had Bill for 6 months and everything's in turmoil.NOAA's the same,the forecasters are the same,but the director's different,and now everything's messed up.
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354. nash28
6:30 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Oh God no GS, not that word.

It's like Candyman. Say it three times, you know who will appear and beat us to death with his theory.
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352. weathersp
2:28 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Seeding hurt's the oceans over time also. But the government does not care about that do they.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
349. MisterPerfect
6:28 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Next you'll be saying we should have dropped nukes on Katrina in the Gulf to weaken it.

Well that would be hard since the weapons needed were in Iraq...somewhere
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
348. Patrap
1:27 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Only Half of the city is below sea-level 54% is above..and has never flooded. first the Facts folks. Like the Vieux Caree (French quarter,)..Uptown..Audobun Ridge..too..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
346. StormHype
6:22 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

i wonder why they never wheeled out the technology to dissipate hurricanes in all these decades since it did work.

you think the government wants to protect the public against hurricanes - NOT


Is this Harry Belafonte or someone else who dropped out of school at the 5th grade? Next you'll be saying we should have dropped nukes on Katrina in the Gulf to weaken it. Are you really such an ignoramus?
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345. MisterPerfect
6:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
There is not ONE SHRED of EVIDENCE showing MAN can STOP MOTHER NATURE.

I think she's a little more crafty than we will ever be.


Tell that to Al Gore.
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
344. nash28
6:27 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Thanks for the laugh there MP. Much obliged:-)
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343. Patrap
1:25 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Fouchon,La 20ft surge area...
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
342. MisterPerfect
6:24 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Try the veal.


Sorry, the veal was blown up by the government. May I suggest a nice plate of bulls***. Tangerine wine perhaps?

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
341. alphawulf
1:23 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
the sad reality is that new orleans is still very much at risk for for another hurricane landfall and flooding any areas below sealevel. this will never change unless they raise the area above sealevel. the government is not responsible for the laws of physics.


This would be less of a concern if it had not been at least 50 years of neglect of the delta and the marsh that had been a buffer against the storm surge and put New Orleans 100 miles from the coast
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340. nash28
6:24 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
It's called "myth". There is not ONE SHRED of EVIDENCE showing MAN can STOP MOTHER NATURE.

I think she's a little more crafty than we will ever be.
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339. Patrap
1:25 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Levee with repair...Kinda

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
338. kmanislander
6:20 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
The controversy at the NHC seems to have gone well beyond the issue(s) that started it and I wonder why, in the first instance, the Director thought this was a fight that could be won.

If one is not at the top of the food chain then you need to be real careful how much noise you make thrashing around .
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337. moonlightcowboy
6:22 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:12 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
No they stopped seeding because it wasnt working and because it costs alot of money to do any type of approach to stop hurricanes, now it may work for a small amount of rain,

Do you realize the materials that would be needed to seed out a large hurricane and how much all that would cost?


...uuuummm, wasn't the last Katrina recovery bill $80,000,000,000 or close? Not to mention all of the private, insurance monies spent.
So, how much would this seeding cost? Might be worth a try again!!!
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335. canesurf
6:19 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Hello everyone. I have been lurking here for a few years, and have finally decided to join. It was prioris' comments that ticked me off. But you have all said the right things.
I live and work in east central Florida. I have been keenly interested and watchful of weather since I began surfing some 37 years ago. I am no expert, not schooled in it. But I have experienced numerous hurricanes, starting with Donna when I was a child living in Tampa.
Just want to thank all of you, or at least most of you with insight and knowledge, for the amount of info you've shared these past few years.
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334. nash28
6:22 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Please everyone welcome Storyteller Prioris!!!!

Try the veal.
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333. stampapaul
6:21 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
baaaa baaaaaaa
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332. alphawulf
1:19 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Kris--Ya think it is related to the apparent desire of NOAA to restructure and incorporate the NWS and NHC into the NOAA "home" and budget world?
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331. MisterPerfect
6:21 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Trust me there is something much more deeper to all that is going at the NHC its just not made public.

Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20137
330. prioris
6:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

>The Levees were a disaster waiting to happen.

after you sweep that criminal act under the rug

i wonder why they never wheeled out the technology to dissipate hurricanes in all these decades since it did work.

you think the government wants to protect the public against hurricanes - NOT

government shares only part of the blame. most of the blame is the public themselves who decide not being an informed citizen of the USA ( or is that the North American Union now ) and caring about human life is important. For most americans, living like mindless sheep is really what they desire.









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329. overwash12
6:14 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
the sad reality is that new orleans is still very much at risk for for another hurricane landfall and flooding any areas below sealevel. this will never change unless they raise the area above sealevel. the government is not responsible for the laws of physics.
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328. weatherboykris
6:17 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Trust me there is something much more deeper to all that is going at the NHC its just not made public.


Exactly what I've been saying...there's more to this than just the quikscat.
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327. stampapaul
6:11 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
WOW...how bout that weather!
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326. alphawulf
1:14 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
It's an engineering thing, not political--

We had rain yesterday and will get some today from the west (Texas)--is this the blob that was in Campeche?
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325. alphawulf
1:07 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
The Corps insists on bisecting solid earth levees with sheet piling and then building a concrete wall on top--but They don't make the sheet piles long enough--then the levees begin to leak around the piles--it is happening now along the MRGO
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324. sporteguy03
6:10 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:42 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
The NHC will be fine with or without quikscat...There ability to put out great forcast will always be there in my opinion.

Dont get me wrong its a great tool but if it fails the NHC iam sure will take that extra step to continue doing a great job.

Yes Adrain well said!
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322. WPBHurricane05
2:10 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
They didn't stop seeding because of lack of funding, it was because of lack of hurricanes.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
321. nash28
6:09 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Not even a close comparison, but whatever Ric. I'm done with it.
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320. WPBHurricane05
2:07 PM EDT on July 06, 2007

blowing up the levies and manufacturing events is pretty much normal for governments to do. the government controlled media maintains the fiction.

most people get the kind of government they deserve


What the heck??? So how come the government didn't blow up the levees around Lake O during Hurricane Wilma????
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
318. moonlightcowboy
6:08 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Prioris...go see a therapist!!! You need help.


Can we please get back to the weather!!!
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317. ricderr
6:07 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
nash...same as you comments concering jobs and inians.....he deserves the heat...he's wrong..and should be called to task for it...taking it and making it a demo or republican thing...makes you look bad..shows your biasses
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21581
316. outrocket
1:04 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
we should consider firing the media ...

best Idea I have heard yet since they are now owned by the higest bidder for whats news worthy
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
315. Patrap
1:07 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
lemme get mo popcorn and another Dr. Pepper ,this is good.

7

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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