Revolt at NHC; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

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The extraordinary political turmoil at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continued yesterday, with the release of a statement signed by nearly half of the staff calling for the immediate dismissal of director Bill Proenza. Front page stories in both the Miami Herald and Florida Sun-Sentinel detail the letter, which reads: "An unfortunate public debate is now occurring over the ability of the National Hurricane Center to meet its mission. The undersigned staff of the National Hurricane Center has concluded that the center needs a new director. The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake. The staff of the National Hurricane Center would like nothing more than to return to its primary mission of protecting life and property from hazardous tropical weather, and leave the political arena it now finds itself in." The letter is signed by 23 of the center's 49 employees, including almost the entire senior staff. Many NHC employees were on vacation, and did not have the opportunity to sign the letter.

The articles in the two newspapers also quote my blog from yesterday, where I present the case against Bill Proenza--his misrepresentation of the science of how much the QuikSCAT satellite influences hurricane track forecasts. I'll have more to say on the matter this afternoon, when I've had a chance to process some of the feedback on this.

Tropical update
A low pressure system (96L) with a well-defined spin is about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, moving westward towards the islands at 10-15 mph. This low continues to show sporadic heavy thunderstorm activity, but has been unable to overcome the large amount of dry air it is embedded in. It would appear that 96L's window of opportunity for developing into a tropical depression has closed, as wind shear has risen to 20 knots and is expected to remain at least 20 knots for the next two or three days. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Model tracks for 96L, the low pressure system approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

New disturbance off the east coast of Florida
An area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of Florida along an old frontal boundary. Long range radar out of Melbourne, FL shows a large disorganized area of showers off the coast. The area is under 20-25 knots of wind shear, and the shear is forecast to remain above 20 knots for at least the next two days in the region, which should prevent any development. The GFS computer model shows this disturbance moving off to the northeast over the weekend, but it could bring heavy rains to Florida and the Northwest Bahamas Friday and Saturday before it does so. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression.

Jeff Masters

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415. weatherboykris
7:26 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
With a high off the SE coast under a NE'rn trof.
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414. weatherboykris
7:26 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Sheri,13-17 storms still looks likely,and I'm personally seeing an '04 pattern setting up on the GFS.
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413. catastropheadjuster
7:21 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
IKE: Thank You
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412. Drakoen
7:23 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
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411. IKE
2:22 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
In Grenada....


"Observed at: Point Salines, GD
Elevation: 23 ft
[Partly Cloudy]
86 F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 77 F
Wind: 17 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.95 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 97 F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds: Few 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)".........

96L is about 350 miles east of Grenada.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
410. WPBHurricane05
3:20 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
It looks like the pacific is firing up. Are we gonna have a season agian like 2006? Or is it to early to tell. I here some say there isn't gonna be a season and some say it's gonna be a bad one. But how is the season shaping up? I the BH setting up like last years did? I am just wondering if someone could answer this or if they have time to between all the talkk about NHC. Thank you, Sheri

Link The season is already above average. On average the first storm finds July 10, second storm August 6, and first hurricane August 14. In 2004 the first storm didn't form until August 1.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
409. IKE
2:19 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
The other islands that it's approaching...Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
407. GaleWeathers
7:19 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Does anyone have a link where I could view radar history based on a date? (with an animated loop)

I noticed WU added a feature where you can view a 24 hour loop of past dates, but it is only showing a still frame right now.
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406. catastropheadjuster
7:14 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
It looks like the pacific is firing up. Are we gonna have a season agian like 2006? Or is it to early to tell. I here some say there isn't gonna be a season and some say it's gonna be a bad one. But how is the season shaping up? I the BH setting up like last years did? I am just wondering if someone could answer this or if they have time to between all the talkk about NHC. Thank you, Sheri
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405. weathersp
3:17 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Well I'll be a hamster on a wheel with a shark biting my tail.. That 96L still has something left in it.

In the last few frames it's really made a turn north-west.

The little low that could
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404. Drakoen
7:18 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Its still there moving to the WNW.
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403. sfranz
7:07 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

Congress getting involved:

Today was supposed to be a day off for Bill Proenza. Instead, the beleaguered director of the National Hurricane Center met today with a congressional delegation, just feet away from center staff, many of whom have publicly called for his departure.

U.S. Reps. Ron Klein, D-Boca Raton, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Pembroke Pines, wrote NOAA's parent, the Commerce Department, on Tuesday, wondering if the surprise visits were a way of pressuring Proenza and asking why they couldn't have been done after the season.

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson "plans to address the hurricane center and its needs" as early as next week in Senate Commerce Committee hearings on QuikSCAT, spokesman Bryan Gulley said Thursday.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/state/epaper/2007/07/06/m1a_PROENZA_0706.html



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402. IKE
2:15 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: catastropheadjuster at 2:14 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
Drakoen: Is the picture u posted the one the was calling 96l? I thought it dissapeared.


It still has a circulation...near 10.8N,55.5W...or I think it has one...moving west toward the lower islands..Barbados and others.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
401. catastropheadjuster
7:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Drakoen: Is the picture u posted the one the was calling 96l? I thought it dissapeared.
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400. WPBHurricane05
3:11 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
94EINVEST.20kts-1009mb-92N-1044W


95EINVEST.20kts-NAmb-85N-1210W


Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
399. weatherboykris
7:10 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
From accuweather:

Greenland DNA offers Clue to Global Warming
The world's oldest DNA found at the bottom of a 2 kilometer thick ice sheet in Greenland might offer some clues to the causes of global warming. An international study which was published in the journal "Science" was co-written by University of Alberta Glaciologist Dr. Martin Sharp. The material, which was made up of tree, plant and insect DNA suggested that the average temperature in the boreal forests of southern Greenland between 450 and 900 thousand years ago was 10 celsius (50 F) in the summer and -17 celsius (1 F) in the winter. On the ice surface today, the average summer temperature is -8 celsius (18 F) and -30 celsius (-22 F) for the winter. In the article from CTV News, Dr. Sharp theorizes from the research that natural processes can and do produce climate change, perhaps big enough to produce effects similar to those that are widely predicted as a result of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW/ human induced global warming), though, he cannot prove it.

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398. RL3AO
2:10 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
1
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397. Drakoen
7:08 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: hurricanehunter93 at 7:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Drakoen have you heard about 94 and 95 visit my website it will have more on both


yea but it looks like they will move away from land
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396. IKE
2:07 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: sfranz at 2:07 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.

Another quote:

"I'm still head of the National Hurricane Center. That's what I was told by the head of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) this morning."

-- Bill Proenza


That should work out just fine. Half of the 49 employees want you gone. This should be a monumental season!...(sarcasm)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
395. weatherboykris
7:07 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Thats sounds like the QB who says "I just talked to the coach and I'm still the starter".Than he gets traded 4 hours later.
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394. sfranz
7:02 PM GMT on July 06, 2007

Another quote:

"I'm still head of the National Hurricane Center. That's what I was told by the head of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) this morning."

-- Bill Proenza

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/state/epaper/2007/07/06/m1a_PROENZA_0706.html

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392. IKE
2:00 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: weatherboyfsu at 1:57 PM CDT on July 06, 2007.
None of those guys are going to leave their gravy jobs.........They can talk all they want..... There is no job that compares to that one....Dont let the door hit them on the______ on the way out. I know plenty of people who jump all over an opportunity to work at NHC........... ME!!!!!!!!!!!!


Go for it. I wish you well...somebodies leaving the NHC....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
391. tornadofan
7:06 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Did somebody say Global Warming?

Researchers: Greenland really was green!

Link
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390. Dodabear
3:04 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
I wish you well.
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389. Drakoen
7:03 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: Dodabear at 7:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.

Drakoen... what is wrong with you???? Don't you know this is a politics blog????


to much of a politics blog. Trying to change the subject.
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387. Dodabear
3:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2007
Drakoen... what is wrong with you???? Don't you know this is a politics blog????
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386. Drakoen
6:59 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
appears that the NHC ran their models on it again
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385. Drakoen
6:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
apparently this thing doesn't know when to quit
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384. weatherboyfsu
6:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
None of those guys are going to leave their gravy jobs.........They can talk all they want..... There is no job that compares to that one....Dont let the door hit them on the______ on the way out. I know plenty of people who jump all over an opportunity to work at NHC........... ME!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
382. TheB52s
6:23 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
CJ5, thank you.
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381. weatherboyfsu
6:51 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Very interesting stuff for everyone to learn with Katrina because the initial depression had a terrible time hanging on just like another area that we have at the moment. Just a little later in the season. Things change minute to minute. Look at the people that were on there including yours truly.....Some of the battles that we had on there....Wait until hurricane season gets really going.....they all will come out of the wood work......lol
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
380. IKE
1:52 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
Then half of the staff may be gone. He's probably gotta go.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
379. BoyntonBeach
6:52 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Can Thunder be measured in intensity ?

I took the percussion waves from a boomer as I opened my garage yesterday, I stood there motionless for about 10 seconds just in awe of the sound & the waves that shot through me...
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378. nash28
6:50 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Proenza is going nowhere, unless I missed some major breaking news regarding a resignation/firing in the last 10 minutes...
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
377. sfranz
6:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Well - another turn on the QuickSCAT debate. A quote from Dr. Master's in another article.

"If we rush into this and immediately get a new QuikSCAT satellite with existing technology, were really missing out on what we hope to be able to do with the next generation."


http://www.gcn.com/online/vol1_no1/44624-1.html
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376. stormybil
6:50 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
where is the blob east of fla going to go ?
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375. weatherboyfsu
6:48 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Hello everyone.......

I went back to the Archives of katrina and found this....Really interesting stuff that all of you should go back and read....This is just a sample just a few days before the most deadly Hurricane to hit the US officially formed.




Posted By: caneforecaster at 6:42 PM GMT on August 22, 2005.

mybahamas- what is interesting is that several models are now developing big things out of the former TD 10...albeit after it reaches Florida. The NOGAPS and CMC explode a storm just off southwest Florida and move it WNW across the Gulf. The Euro and GFS also indicate the same feature, as does the UKMET. Given the water temps in the Gulf, should be interesting to see how this evolves...
Posted By: StormJunkie at 6:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2005.

What about the front off of the carolina coast? What are the chances of this developing and where would it go?
Posted By: CosmicEvents at 6:45 PM GMT on August 22, 2005.

Cane...do you have the links for these models? If it's so why do you suppose that Dr. Jeff hasn't brought this to our attention?
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
372. Patrap
1:50 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
One last act..to resign is all that is left. The pangs have passed. Its time to move on . With the Public best served..by the resignation.A poisoned atmosphere cannot be tolerated.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
369. weatherboykris
6:45 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
NASA buys $19 million Russian toilet system

CAPE CANAVERAL -- (AP) -- In space, a loo costs a lot.

NASA has agreed to pay $19 million for a Russian-built toilet system for the International Space Station. The figure may sound astronomical for a toilet in space, but NASA officials said it was cheaper than building their own.



NASA can't build a toilet for less than 19 million...LOL,and we're sending these morons into space?
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368. Chicklit
6:43 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
I'm sorry to see Mr. Proenza go. I thought he took a very bold step for the improvement of his organization. I think he was also implying that his "bosses" were a bit redundant and wasting money (bureaucratic waste).
Proenza definitely forgot about the 'Cut your bosses off at the knees and you'll be axed' rule.
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367. IKE
1:45 PM CDT on July 06, 2007
96L...the survivor...heading for Barbados...batten down the hatches.

New convection firing to its south side.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
366. moonlightcowboy
6:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
Posted By: weatherboykris at 6:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2007.
It ain't hard to figure out who should go.


...yep, exactly -- the lot of them!!! All the way up to C. Hill. Privatize it, award a prize for development...anything beats this kind of crap we're having to listen to and bare the results of...really!!!
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365. MisterPerfect
6:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2007
So, how much would a new and improved quikSCAT cost again?

NASA buys $19 million Russian toilet system

CAPE CANAVERAL -- (AP) -- In space, a loo costs a lot.

NASA has agreed to pay $19 million for a Russian-built toilet system for the International Space Station. The figure may sound astronomical for a toilet in space, but NASA officials said it was cheaper than building their own.
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20135

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.