96L weakens; political storm at NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007

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A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

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256. barbadosjulie
5:25 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
is this good or bad for our blob?
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
255. WeatherfanPR
5:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Look at this wind shear forecast for the next 72hrs.Link
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
254. CJ5
5:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Proenza came in and worked to make things better for the public. He did what many of us nonpoliticians always say we would do; cut out the politics and get something done as a public servant. By pointing out that NOAA is spending money on the proverbial $500 toilet seat and not paying attention to the true needs of the service he has painted himself in the corner. His staff isn't behind him for obvious reasons; go with your boss or the 400lb elephant against him.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
253. Tazmanian
5:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
: Drakoen same her
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
252. WeatherfanPR
5:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
If someone says that the system was decoupled, does that means that it was a TD, TS or H?
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
251. bluehaze27
5:10 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Blame the war in Iraq for the problems at the hurricane center. I work as an Wx observer at Miami International. There has been word coming down for the last year or so that the government wants to make the tower people take observations and phase out the observer program. The talk is that this phase out would first affect c and b stations first. There is no word yet on A stations like Miami. Ft Lauderdale is a level b airport for the wx station there. Couple this talk with the aging quick scat, the fact that they are scaling down flights into hurricanes, and the fact that Noaa won't allow our satellites to study global warming anymore, should tell you all you need to know about where we stand. Our government is out of money and we are low hanging fruit. Our stations contract is awarded again in August with a take over date of Oct 1. Whether or no we will still have a job or whether or not the government will actually phase us out remains to be seen, but I can tell you that everyone in the observing field is very worried.
Member Since: March 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 813
250. Drakoen
5:06 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
new blog!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30700
249. WPBHurricane05
5:05 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
You can still watch Max Mayfield on Local 10 in Miami.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
248. hurricane23
5:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
TSR on the update today lowers there numbers a bit but still indicates an above average season looks likely.

Complete Update
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
247. stoormfury
5:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
well well what a system . 96L is trying hard to make a come back, good out flow pattern trying to form again
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
246. nash28
5:02 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
True, but the more telling image is in the WV image.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
245. nash28
5:02 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Mayfield was and IS STILL a good man. How anyone can have a problem with him is beyond me.

Not going to get in a pissing political match about it either. Politics and this blog need to remain seperate.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
244. Drakoen
5:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
i'll use this pciture to show you the moisture at the surface in relation to the wind field.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30700
243. Drakoen
4:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
nash28 it does drop it lol. still shows it. wait for the cyclone phase diagram.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30700
241. charliesurvivor
4:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I didi not like Mayfield! Long live Bob Sheets
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 190
239. nash28
4:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
12Z CMC basically drops this as well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
237. Drakoen
4:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
notice the outflow/windfield. that to show how much moisture the system can hold.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30700
236. Drakoen
4:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
jp is right. The winds field is looking good though. Its currently going through the dinural min phase so convection associated with the system will be relatively light. I give this thing one more dinural max phase before i give up on it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30700
235. caneman
4:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Death to all tropical blobs!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
234. LaHurricane87
4:54 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I have seen lows in much worse shape then this come back from the dead, not saying it will we will just have to see
233. MikeOhio
4:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
all the wish-casting going on last night looks pretty bad right now, although I'm sure it happens all the time....
231. Tazmanian
4:50 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
28 give 96L one more day be foe you call it done it could make a come back or it could not but give it one more day
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
230. eye
4:48 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
ok, a couple hrs ago the COC was strong, now it is falling apart......lol..............OK!
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
229. nash28
4:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Yeah Taz, I do. Can't make lemonade out of lemons that aren't there. Don't worry. We'll have Chantal sometime this month.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
228. Tazmanian
4:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
you dont no that 28
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
227. LaHurricane87
4:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
well I am not writing it off yet, as long as it has a tight circulation new convection can pop up at any time.
226. stoormfury
4:44 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
yes some models are suggesting that o low may move out of Africa on the weekend and track weatward across the atlantic towards the islands next week. the models are even suggesting that it could be Chantal. we just have to wait and see
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
225. Wecouldoit
4:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
It would be tough for anyone to replace Max, but especially for a manager from outside the center who was not an experienced hurricane forecaster. These guys were used to "one of their own" managing the center and are reacting poorly to Washington going outside to name a replacement. Been there, done that. Bill needed to carefully earn his membership on their team while encouraging the input of the group of very experienced "individual contributors." In other words, "hang back while they get to know him." It didn't happen and now may be beyond repair. This problem would occur as long as they didn't name an existing forecaster as the new chief, which they didn't do for some reason that we may never know. Too bad...now we all have a problem.
224. barbadosjulie
4:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
oh well, it was fun while it lasted:)
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
222. Smyrick145
4:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Does anyone see areas of interest that need to be watched for development in the near future or possibly several days out?
Member Since: September 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
221. nash28
4:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
They may as well remove the invest. It's done.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
220. nash28
4:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Yep.. Update is it is croaking and basically about to die.

WV imagery shows that the dry air has proven to be too much for this little system.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
219. stoormfury
4:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
it looks like 96L has gone thru a cemetery of dry air. the dry air was mainly at the mid levels comparable to the relatively moist upper levels. now with the forecast for wind shear to increase near the island chain. it is almost certain that 96L has met it's demise
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
218. barbadosjulie
4:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
any updates on 96L
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
215. LaHurricane87
4:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Hello

This is my first post and I look forward to haveing great discussions with you all.

I just wanted to say that I agree with JP's comments on Bill I think its about time someone speaks up and tells it like it is.

Kristopher,
214. eye
4:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
jp, he will be out before the peak of the season.....people arent use to his face, so it will not be a loss, they will probably get one of the chicks on TWC as interm Director until after the season....lol
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
213. homegirl
4:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
aquak9, is there a link to a story for that bomb? Crescent beach in Sarasota, fl?
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
211. eye
4:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
he did not go through the proper channels, he should of known better, it is not like he is a rookie....it is one thing to point out something, it is another to basically trash your boss(NOAA)....in the real world, you would be fired the next day. I have no sympathy for the man....he made his bed, now he has to sleep in it...his own staff wants him gone.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
210. aquak9
4:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Weather-related?

A 250lb World War II bomb has washed up on the shore of Crescent Beach, Florida. This is in the Northeast coast area, found this morning by a lady walking her dog. Navy explosives/ordinance team on site.

Well, we HAVE been having some heavy surf...kinda freaky.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26495
209. WPBHurricane05
4:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Weather Extremes Wither LA, Drown Texas

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
207. sporteguy03
4:12 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
JP,
Hypothetical situation what happens if we get a major Hurricane in the next two weeks threatening the U.S.? Will the gov't allow Mr.Proenza on tv or mute him?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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