96L weakens; political storm at NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007

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A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

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56. Drakoen
2:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Seems the models still have faith in it lol. Time will tell.
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55. Drakoen
2:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
here the 12z!
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53. Drakoen
2:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
the doc says it could make a comeback so we will see.
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52. Drakoen
2:10 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
amazinwxman the dinural phase is tricky. it looks like something at one point and then looks like nothing at another. Dinural max and dinural min.
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51. stormpetrol
2:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Looks like 96L might be fighting a losing battle, but one never knows it might still become a TD or TS.
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50. Drakoen
2:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
it might be able to go through 1 more dinural max phase, which is its only chance of developing in my opnion; otherwise its dead.
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49. amazinwxman
2:06 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
It's funny because yesterday & last night people on this site believed 96L could still make it and develope and other sites didn't now this site is giving 96L the death kiss and other sites want to still watch it & give it a chance. Just thought it was funny but we'll see what happens.
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48. Drakoen
2:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
this should explain it.

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47. WPBHurricane05
9:59 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
apocalyps- With all the dry air its going to go from this:
Link

to this:
Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
46. Drakoen
2:00 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 1:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

24 hours till death of 96L


maybe less lol..
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
45. apocalyps
03:56 PM CEST op 04 Juli, 2007
It does not need mositure to hold.
it could hold on his own.
But weakening first.
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42. WPBHurricane05
9:55 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
The good things about un-active seasons:
Less hurricanes
The trolls don't get hurricanes hitting the US

The bad things about un-active seasons:
The trolls complain about the un-active season

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
41. Drakoen
1:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Notice the SAL/ dry air is moving into the east Caribbean. Also the dry is moving to the SW. starting to supress and take away mositure from 96L.
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40. apocalyps
03:54 PM CEST op 04 Juli, 2007
it is not gone yet.
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39. Drakoen
1:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
you can thank dry air/SAL for the demise of this system.
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38. Thundercloud01221991
1:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
water vapor on NHC satalite page the dark colors are dry air and the sahara dust is what makes the air dry
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37. WPBHurricane05
9:52 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Thats strange, the rest of my comment didn't post. Anyway here it is again:

the brown stuff is the dry air and the whites blues and purples all represent moisture.
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36. Drakoen
1:50 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
growcartmozart look at the water vapor loop. the only mositure is comming for troughs. If this pattern continues we can look at a moderate to below normal season. still keep you guards up just making an observation.
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35. WPBHurricane05
9:50 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Growcartmozart- Look at the Water Vapor
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33. apocalyps
03:45 PM CEST op 04 Juli, 2007
It still has a chance.
Small waves are able to hold in dry air,sometimes.
I still dont see it go poof.
And it is still a long way to the carribean.
Dry air could be gone by the time it gets there.
But,ofcourse it is a small chance.
I give it 10% for the moment.
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32. Drakoen
1:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
i'm seeing a similar pattern to 2006... troughs comming of... dry air..
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31. benirica
1:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
but if anything, this should call our attention to the fact that Africa may be quite a player this season... if its been generating such intense waves (even if they havent really made it), can you imagine what the Cape Verde season will be like when things are all for things developing off of Africa?
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30. Drakoen
1:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
the only reason i thought it could survive today is because there seems to be moisture ahead of the system, but there is just dry air now.
Anyone notice something here in relation to what weathersp said?
Link
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29. benirica
1:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
i dont think this thing has a chance anymore guys... it looked like it did yesterday, but the air wasnt being dried up right infront of it so quickly... today its like someone dropped a load of Bounty all around 96L and is slowly or quickly going to dry 96L up as well.
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28. WPBHurricane05
9:44 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Happy Independence Day


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27. WPBHurricane05
9:43 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
apocalyps- What makes you think that?? Like Drakoen said the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic are bone dry.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
26. Drakoen
1:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
the Atlantic and the Caribbean is bone dry only place with moisture is the GOM. seems that dry is really closing in on the system. Before you know it we have a dissapating naked swirl.
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25. apocalyps
03:41 PM CEST op 04 Juli, 2007
i think it will develop.
Give it some time.
If it is not gone by tomorrow we have a TS saturday.But its in trouble.
I think it will overcome this.
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24. Drakoen
1:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
lets see Bill has address the issues that forecasters at the NHC don't want to address themselves and therefore want to spite back. I hope Bill puts up a fight and a good one too.
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23. WPBHurricane05
9:39 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Link 96L will be going poof within the next 24-36 hours I think.
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22. weathersp
9:31 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
''I don't think that Bill can continue here,'' said James Franklin, one of five senior forecasters at the center. ``I don't think he can be an effective leader.''
-From the Miami Herald

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21. Jedkins
1:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Weak low riht over the tampa bay area with trough axis just to the north across psco county and PWATS are over 2.25 with saturation at all levels of the atmosphere and no caping at all.



We could have some slow moving huge rain producers today, that classic wall of water kind of tropical convection, just what Florida needs.
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20. Drakoen
1:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
it should pick up speed soon...
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19. Thundercloud01221991
1:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
This however mean it is done compleatly I would watch the wave as it enters the carrabean
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18. Drakoen
1:29 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
for now i'm gonna agreee thundercloud.
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17. Thundercloud01221991
1:23 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I think that 96L is done
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16. Drakoen
1:28 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
15. Drakoen
1:26 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
i still don't know how the models have the system making it pass the Lesser Anitilles.
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14. Hurricaniac
1:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Good morning all. LOL.
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13. Patrap
8:19 AM CDT on July 04, 2007
To be sure..we look forward to the story on the ongoing Political wranglings of NOAA with the NHC. The Public trust cannot be overshadowed by these political overtones.
We deserve to have the NHC unencumbered by the red state,blue state scene. The People are the ones who suffer. Again ,.thanks for bringing us the facts..as well as the Nation and the World.
My hats off to Dr. Masters,Margiekieper for their dedication to the truth,and the people.
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12. Drakoen
1:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
anyone have a current graphic of the MJO?
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11. WPBHurricane05
9:17 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
TD 03W Link
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10. tropicfreak
9:19 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
darn 10th
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9. PensacolaDoug
1:18 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Of course, I've been wrong before....
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8. Drakoen
1:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Even though its fighting the dry air it can only do that for so long before it dissapates.
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7. PensacolaDoug
1:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I dont think it will either. (Develope further) I never have.
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6. Drakoen
1:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
its not a TD yet. and dry air surrounds the system. At this point i don't think it will develop.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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