96L weakens; political storm at NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007

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A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

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106. Jedkins
2:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 2:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

LOL eye!!! Look for yourself





Its safe to say eye just got shut down. LOL
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104. Patrap
9:49 AM CDT on July 04, 2007
To send ones comments to NOAA ,heres the contact page..Link
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103. MisterPerfect
2:48 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Happy 4th WU!


Audio Interview with Bill Proenza by the Miami Herald
Link
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101. Drakoen
2:47 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: Growcartmozart at 2:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

On the models, what does the straight black line represent labeled XTRP?

Thx


where it thinks the system will go. The BAM models are good for weakers systems so you can use them too.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
100. WPBHurricane05
10:46 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
On the models, what does the straight black line represent labeled XTRP?


The XTRAP is not a model. It shows the general motion of the storm and does not predict movement.
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99. TheCaneWhisperer
10:46 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Morning All!

Noticed you asked for the MJO Drak!

CURRENT FROM YESTERDAY

FORECAST


Notice that the MJO that was supposed to be in the area this month is forecast to be delayed till next month. Also, 96L is going into the day very weak, I would be surprised if it was able to hang on. It will be moving into a very
subsident enviornment in the Caribb!
98. Altestic87
10:46 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Alberto and Barry's eyes were both completely exposed...
97. BoyntonBeach
2:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
A shot from a snowy day in Colorado...

Flag
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96. WPBHurricane05
10:45 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
LOL eye!!! Look for yourself

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93. eye
2:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
the center is no way fully exposed, jp, you have been saying that since it "developed" but I dont see it. My2cents
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
92. Jedkins
2:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

WPB the current model guidance suggest that the system will move to the northern Carribbean, if it survives.
i doubt models don't take into consideration dry air. An dlike Jedkins said it can still feed of the warm waters of the Atlantic.




I don't think they do seem to take into consideration dry air.





Like I was decribing earlier, once a tropical cyclone gets its act together and its over warm water, it will create its own very moist environment so it won't have any trouble fighting the drier air aloft around it.



However, when systems haven't gotten their act together like 96L they still are greatly inhibited by dry air, and because its July, a number of factors work against it to get its act together.



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90. Chicklit
2:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Didn't Dr. Master's say if it did develop it would be slow going? I just don't see how it can survival all that dry air to the north.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
89. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
96l suffers day effect dont be fooled tracer plum of moisture in a line all the way to extreme southern windwards after that cari. she holding weak but holding remember still invest nuttin more at moment things can change real quick day time max only just occurr
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88. Altestic87
10:40 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
I know July is typically pretty slow, but in 2005 there were 5 named storms and 2 hurricanes, both major. A typical season is a boring season like last year.
87. WPBHurricane05
10:40 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Hmmmm.......

Link
Link
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86. Jedkins
2:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

lol i was jsut making a current observation jedkins calm down. Thanks for that explanation though. It still has a chance, that i can agree with, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.




I'm not mad at ya no problem, just remember I always post that way when I make a point, no hard thoughts there, thats how I do it lol.
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85. Drakoen
2:36 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
WPB the current model guidance suggest that the system will move to the northern Carribbean, if it survives.
i doubt models don't take into consideration dry air. An dlike Jedkins said it can still feed of the warm waters of the Atlantic.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
81. Jedkins
2:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
See its still July and cape verde systems just are very rare, it doesn't hve to do with dry air over the atlantic, as long as there is no dust. Once a tropical cyclone gets going, it can handle dry air aloft pretty well.



See this 96L, hasn't "gotten going" yet to begin with. So at this time dry air is afecting and inhibiting it.
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80. Drakoen
2:34 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
lol i was jsut making a current observation jedkins calm down. Thanks for that explanation though. It still has a chance, that i can agree with, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
79. WPBHurricane05
10:34 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
True Jedkings and if 96L makes it to 50W where waters are warmer, it might have a chance. Although by than it will have to find shear if it wants to enter the Caribbean.
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77. Drakoen
2:31 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
the coc is under the heavy convection so it doesnt' seem to want to die yet. seems to be playing some mind games with us before it decides what it actually wants to do.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
76. Jedkins
2:06 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 1:52 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

growcartmozart look at the water vapor loop. the only mositure is comming for troughs. If this pattern continues we can look at a moderate to below normal season. still keep you guards up just making an observation.





That is not necessarily true, I have seen many times that tropical cyclones have a circulation full of deep convection when the atlantic is full of dry air.


Why is this you might ask? Well just look at how a tropical cyclone gets stronger, its easy once you looki at that, the storm sucks up massive amounts of moisture from the warm water.


See you have to remember that water vapor imagery ONLY represents the upper levels of the atmosphere. Not the surface. The low levels below all that is full of moisture do to vast warm waters.


So when a tropical cyclone develops, it takes massive amounts of moisture and energy off the warm water. This creates deep layer moisture and has no problem fighting the dry air aloft because it creastes its own environment as true tropical cyclones always do.


What will weaken them is the dust that will come off Africa at times, the dust will suck int the storms circulation and will dry out the air within it some which can weaken a tropical cyclone rapidly sometimes.



So, this does not mean it will be "an inactive season".

Not only that its July. Lets not spin around cornors, even if we did not have a single td this month. The season could easily still be very active. It means nothing to rest of the season whats currently going on.


Jusr remember that.


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74. WPBHurricane05
10:31 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Do the models take in account the dry air surrounding storms??
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72. Altestic87
10:30 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Actually, Less hurricanes counts on the "bad things" list.
70. Drakoen
2:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
very nice synopsis StormW.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813
67. Drakoen
2:26 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: leftovers at 2:25 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

The problem with these persistant struggling systems is that if this ever does enter a favorable area this could explode. Joe B mentioned this a few yrs ago on his show
.

yea that is true but it has yet to enter one. The best it can do for itslef if follow the ITCZ moisture to sustain itself. It may get one more dinural max phase so we'll see what happens.
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66. Drakoen
2:26 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
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62. apocalyps
04:23 PM CEST op 04 Juli, 2007
never seen a wave with legs.
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60. Drakoen
2:19 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
5 models predict a TS. LMAO.
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59. Drakoen
2:18 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
all the models have it beggining its intensification in 24 hours.
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58. amd
2:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
this invest is just about done. Way too much dry air in the area to allow for any development.
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57. apocalyps
03:58 PM CEST op 04 Juli, 2007
Its easy to say it will die.
The chance is much bigger that you are wright.
But i go for the hard way and say it will weaken,hold and develop.
But the chance is bigger that i am wrong.
But hey,i dont care.
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56. Drakoen
2:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Seems the models still have faith in it lol. Time will tell.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30813

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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