96L weakens; political storm at NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007

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A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

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156. ryang
11:17 AM AST on July 04, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:09 AM AST on July 04, 2007.

Thats a tropical wave.

Yes!!

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18N53W 4N53W MOVING W 15 KT. NO AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
155. eye
3:14 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
the air around the system and ahead isnt all the dry, to the N yeah, but it isnt heading to the N now is it? Yes, there is some dry air in the Carribean, but who knows if that will be the case when this slow moving wave/invest gets there. People have been calling it dead for 3 days now, and it is still around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
154. hurricane23
11:17 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
ABNT20 KNHC 041509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Just a warm up before the real season starts.

Enjoy you 4th today.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
152. Drakoen
3:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

totally agree Adrian

RIP 96L

for now, could make a comeback later on, if that circulation can stay intact


i agree.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
151. ryang
3:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
149. Drakoen
3:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
147. Drakoen
3:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
hurricane23 didn't it do the exact same thing yesterday?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
146. hurricane23
3:16 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
On its last legs....Dry air in control.

Exposed LLC.

FFF
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
145. weathersp
3:15 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
96L
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
144. Drakoen
3:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Going by the models, in 24 hours they continue its westward motion before WNW. They also have the system intensfying at that time. So time will tell. Also it will be past 55W isn't that what the requirement is for the RECON? I give it another day to impress me lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
143. nolesjeff
3:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: watchinwxnwpb at 3:00 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

Also, who can we write to showing our support for Mr. Proenza? Does anyone know? Poor guy has the guts to speak up & look what happens to him! I guess it doesn't matter what his experience is or that he only has the best interests of the people (us) at heart! That's a shame!
Patrap provided link in thread above your entry, I agree, we need more leaders to set aside their personal agendas and do what is in the best interest of our nation!
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
142. Drakoen
3:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: ryang at 3:05 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

But if the wave around 55 WEST can create moisture, you never know.


Thats a tropical wave.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
140. DocBen
3:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
This NHC thing seems very confusing to me.

"several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster"

It seems like we are seeing professionals going against professionals. That seems even more disturbing than the earlier spat between Proenza and the political head of the NWS.

Masters' report will be interesting reading.
Member Since: May 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
139. Altestic87
3:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Only annular hurricanes can truely, effectively fight off high shear.
138. ryang
3:05 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
But if the wave around 55 WEST can create moisture, you never know.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
137. TheCaneWhisperer
3:05 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I don't think so JP! It's hard to tell though because there are no high tops north of the ITCZ. All the high tops are confined to the ITCZ and South.
136. WPBHurricane05
3:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Can't a system develop one of those anticyclone thingys so it can fight off the shear?? I doubt that 96L will do that.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
135. ryang
3:04 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Lot's of dry air to the north, we will see.

map
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
132. TheCaneWhisperer
3:02 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Seems to be moving at a pretty good clip now. Left something behind though, lol. Maybe it will pull out of the ITCZ now but, that would be sure death. There isn't a drop of moisture anywhere else and the ITCZ isn't exactly moisture laden either.
131. Drakoen
3:02 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I'm sure the folks at NOAA take into consideration the dry air in the upper levels but the system can still feed of the warm waters at the surface and support itself just like Jedkins said.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
130. ryang
3:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
JP like what??. There is no SAL in the caribbean... Shear might rise but that's about it...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
128. whirlwind
3:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
hey : CycloneOz.

Nice animation. You got one long animation like that for the cane season of '05?
I got individual clips but lookin for a complete movie type? infrared or visible?


127. watchinwxnwpb
3:00 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Also, who can we write to showing our support for Mr. Proenza? Does anyone know? Poor guy has the guts to speak up & look what happens to him! I guess it doesn't matter what his experience is or that he only has the best interests of the people (us) at heart! That's a shame!
Member Since: September 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
126. WPBHurricane05
3:00 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
96L INVEST.25kts-1013mb-10.6N-43.0W
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
125. ryang
3:00 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
If it is moving WEST... Lot's of moisture in front of it.

map

GOES-12 Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (14:15 UTC, 39 minutes ago)
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
124. Drakoen
2:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
JP was have seen 96L expose herself (lol) before and she regained the convection over the COC.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
122. Drakoen
2:59 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
the picture that i posted was of the 12z. So i expect the next tropical outlook to be simlar to the 5:30 am one.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
120. Drakoen
2:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
just stating the facts JP...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
119. ryang
2:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
LOL... 96L Looks more south than it ever was...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
118. Drakoen
2:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
116. watchinwxnwpb
2:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I agree JP! It is really getting old to hear the '06 comparison. It's not '06, it's '07. We are still in the very begining of the season. Of course the waves & blobs may not always develop. It's not Aug or Sept. yet. The pattern has not set up like '06 because it hasn't really set up yet at all. Relax guys lol. We still have months to go yet. The troughs are there ,yeah, they always will come down. What part they will play? Who knows yet. Have patience! Oh, & HAPPY 4th everyone!!!
Member Since: September 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
114. ryang
2:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Yes Drakoen... Also the wave in front is creating moisture...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12452
112. Drakoen
2:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Jp Barry developed with high shear i did not run into it. that i remember. the convection was close to the low level circulation and only needed to be a little more organized to be a tropical Storm.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
as long as coc exsist any thing is possible convention firing south zone there exsist a proability of further convection organizing during dirural its only an invest which means a developeing area of disturb weather.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
109. Drakoen
2:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
guys its down to 1012 mb now in the 24 hour forecast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
107. TheCaneWhisperer
2:50 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
XTRAP -- simple extrapolated track. Assumes the storm just keeps going at the same speed and direction. No physics at all involved. Generally of no use except as a "what if" scenario.
106. Jedkins
2:50 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 2:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

LOL eye!!! Look for yourself





Its safe to say eye just got shut down. LOL

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.