96L weakens; political storm at NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on July 04, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, near 10N 43W, has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity, but could still make a comeback and become a tropical depression by Friday. This system has been labeled "96L" by the NHC. The wave has a small closed circulation, as seen on both visible satellite loops and last night's 4:57pm EDT QuikSCAT pass. Winds from QuikSCAT were as high as 25 mph. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the storm. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 5 and 15 knots in the region over the next two days. By Friday, as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands, the GFS model is predicting that wind shear will rise to 20-30 knots, which should tear the system apart. Dry air to the north is limiting the thunderstorm activity of 96L. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) lies just 50 miles north of the storm's center of circulation, as seen in water vapor satellite loops. None of the reliable computer models develop the system into a tropical depression. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare, and I don't think 96L will develop.

In the Pacific, we broke a long spell of over a month without a tropical cyclone, with the formation of Tropical Storm 03W. The cyclone is expected to hit southern China as a weak tropical storm Friday.


Figure 1. Computer model forecast tracks for 96L.

Storm at NHC
Those of you who follow Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog know that a major political battle is occurring at NHC. Last night, the Miami Herald broke the story that several senior Hurricane Specialists at NHC are now openly calling for NHC chief Bill Proenza's ouster. Margie and I have been quietly gathering information on this brewing story over the past few months, but have not posted anything due to the sensitive nature of the matter. Now that the story has been broken, we can tell you what we know. I will lay out the full details in my next blog, which I plan to post by 1pm EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 206 - 156

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

205. sporteguy03
3:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Adrian,
I don't know Mr.Proenza personally nor the NHC Forecasters but this is not the time to squabble at each other wait til November for that, you need to work as a team to prepare and save lives, the NHC forecasters who are bickering should be ashamed of themselves, it is their job to be confidential about their feelings and wait. Their focus should be on 96L and the tropics not ousting their Director, there is a time and place for everything and its not now. If I was working there and a reporter asked me about the situation no matter how bad I would say " This is not the time and place for this discussion my duties are to serve the American public in tracking and preparing for this Hurricane season."

Just my take
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
204. eye
4:03 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
It is a political position, what do you expect? I mean the NHC Director is all over the TV when something threatens and even when nothing is out, he is addressing conferences etc.....it is like Condi Rice deciding one day to blast the State department for all the weakenesses....he should of known better before he went down the road he did.....did he really think nothing would happen? He will be gone before Sept.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
203. vortextrance
3:55 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Happy 4th to everyone. I don't have much hope for 96L doing anything. Atleast there is something to look at.
I agree with JP on the politics point. I am sick of it. No middle, just extremes. I hate both sides.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
202. whirlwind
4:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
hey all,

Anyone have a good readup on diurnal min and max phases as well as nocturnal related to tropical cyclones? Cant seem to google the right literature.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
201. nash28
4:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Well, I see we are in "will it live/will it not live" mode today....

Hey, at least it is something to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
200. eye
3:58 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I expect he will soon retire and that NOAA will put in a "yes person"
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
199. Altestic87
11:58 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Adrian is always quite the conservative one.
198. moonlightcowboy
3:57 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Morning, all! Happy 4th!!!

It's gonna be tough for 96 to hold on. Dry air now rolling in from the south now, the only side its been able to keep consistent convection. But, the dry air to its north seems to be lifting somewhat northwards. If it has a chance at all, it's gonna have to be between 45w and 50w. Still possible, but lower probability.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
197. hurricane23
11:53 EDT le 04 juillet 2007


To be honest Proenza is on his last string with the inner core of NHC now againest him.I dont think he will last there through the end of the season.Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
195. Drakoen
3:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
i don't know why they hate Bill. Hes doing his job hes trying to get us a Quicksat. I mean am i mssing something here? Just because he wants to address the issues at hand that everyone doesn't are spiting.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
193. hurricane23
11:50 EDT le 04 juillet 2007
The center has been decoupled which amounts to 0 chances for intensification.

There's a reason why tropical systems are rare this far out at this time of the year.

Hope eveyone has a great and safe 4th of july.Adrian

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
191. Drakoen
3:51 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
lol i don't know all the models too well.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
190. sporteguy03
3:49 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
JP,
I just hope the NHC can work together with Mr.Proenza this is no time for fighting, you are a team not enemies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
189. Drakoen
3:50 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
if you look at the lower level moisture you can see that moisture is filling in along with the wind field.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
187. WeatherfanPR
3:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
96L,very nice coc and sw quadrant thunderstorms for an invest!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
186. Drakoen
3:46 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
compare this

with this:

Model guidance suggest it will only get into the eastern most portions of the Caribbean. The BAM models that do well with weaker systems show this.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
184. Chicklit
3:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1053 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE GATHERING SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW AROUND A MID LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INLAND NORTH OF ORLANDO AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE PEAK TIME FOR LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THUNDER IS HEARD.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
WEAK STEERING LEVEL WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 10 MPH OR LESS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER STORMS TO DROP LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO FLOOD. AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCAL FLOODING. DRIVERS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AND A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE... WHICH WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11 AM THIS MORNING AND 530 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS...
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS PASS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT STEERING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY LOW THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH HAVE GENERATED LOCALLY HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WHILE THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...SOME EASTERLY SWELLS WILL WORK THEIR TOWARD THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE FOR SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE
CAUTION FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH TO COCOA BEACH...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE WHERE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. RAINFALL SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR OBSERVED FLOODING.

$$

VOLKMER






Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11176
183. TheCaneWhisperer
11:46 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
I dunno though, expanding field means more to keep filled with moisture.
181. TheCaneWhisperer
11:43 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
A look at the AVN says 96 is trying to fill in the expansion with moisture, hummmm.
180. eye
3:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
I think if it runs into shear(at first the forcast was for none, now it is for some) it will be a gonner.....IF the shear forcast verifies, I dont see how such a small circulation can make it past it intact(where the better conditions would be waiting). It is like this tiny circulation has a couple more hurdles before those good conditions will exist.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
179. Drakoen
3:43 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
thecanewhisper, i guess this is what the NHC is looking at the expanding wind field. So its still possible.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
178. Drakoen
3:42 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

its possible eye

circulation is impressive, it could easily hold form until it comes upon better conditions, I just feel it wont get those conditions unless it gets to the western caribbean


yea JP thats what i feel. Maybe somewhere liek the Bahamas or the Gulf. where there is more moisture in the upper levels for it to feed of.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
177. TheCaneWhisperer
11:41 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Very tough road today EYE. I wouldn't throw in the towel quite yet. The expanding wind field has just been taking place in the last couple frames.
176. Drakoen
3:41 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: eye at 3:40 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

so, maybe it isnt dead afterall?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


its not dead untill its declared dead by the NHC.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
174. eye
3:39 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
so, maybe it isnt dead afterall?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
173. TheCaneWhisperer
11:36 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
Now just toss in some T-Storms and you'll have something to talk about. Very impressive circulation though. Good to study, if it is able to re-generate from ground zero.
172. Drakoen
3:38 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
96L shoudl be going through or is about to go through its dinural min phase. So this kind of organization is expected with it as of now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
170. AllyBama
3:37 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Happy 4th everyone...how are the tropics today?

JP!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
169. Chicklit
3:35 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
It's been raining here in East Central Florida all morning long...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11176
167. ryang
11:33 AM AST on July 04, 2007
Good point Cane...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
166. Drakoen
3:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: Chicklit at 3:30 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.


Hey Boys and Girls...What's going on in the Gulf?


mositure from the Gulf caused by a 1010mb low over land near Corpus Christi.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
165. spiceymonster
3:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 3:32 PM GMT on July 04, 2007.

You can very CLEARLY see the COC on that picture
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
164. Chicklit
3:33 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11176
163. TheCaneWhisperer
11:32 AM EDT on July 04, 2007
162. Chicklit
3:27 PM GMT on July 04, 2007

Hey Boys and Girls...What's going on in the Gulf?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11176
160. Drakoen
3:23 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
96L playing mind games for now. To me 96L did the same thing yesterday with the exposed lol to the north of the convection, then the convection caught up. Who knows...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29888
159. eye
3:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
it isnt as dry as it is to the N, there are sections in the Carribean that are dry as it is far to the N of the system...but right around the system, it isnt bone dry....at least not yet...if it was, there would be 0 convection....although it is limited, there is still convection.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
158. eye
3:21 PM GMT on July 04, 2007
hmmmm, NHC is ususally the conservative ones, not this blog! lol
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
156. ryang
11:17 AM AST on July 04, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 11:09 AM AST on July 04, 2007.

Thats a tropical wave.

Yes!!

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 18N53W 4N53W MOVING W 15 KT. NO AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 206 - 156

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.