One tropical wave to watch in the mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 02, 2007

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa late last week is now near 8N 35W, way out in the middle of the Atlantic. This wave has heavy thunderstorm activity and some counterclockwise spin to it, as seen on both visible satellite loops and QuikSCAT. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, and is forecast to fluctuate between 10 and 30 knots in the region over the next two days. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, which is warm enough to support some tropical development. Dry air does not seem to be a hindrance, as the Saharan Air Layer is about 150 miles to the north of the wave. The GFS model does indicate a tropical depression might form here, although our other three reliable models, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF, do not. Climatologically, formation of a tropical depression in this region of the Atlantic this time of year is quite rare. Due to this fact, plus the somewhat marginal wind shear and the position of the wave so close to the Equator, I'm not expecting it to develop. However, we should keep an eye on it this week as it moves very slowly to the west at less than 5 mph.



I'll be back this afternoon with my bi-monthly hurricane outlook, for the first half of July.

Jeff Masters

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681. WPBHurricane05
8:15 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
680. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:06 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
not to sound stupid but lookin at adds vis sat for fla area there seems to be a naked swirl startin up lots of convection firing along west side of fla coasts with convection startin to fire shortly in that swirl off fla over gulf wsters wsw of tampa any body else see this
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55503
679. groundman
7:50 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Maybe someone could bug the tropical forecast offices @ the NHC??? (It's a JOKE, I dont' want to bug anything) Then we would know for SURE about the newest invests, depressions and storms first but we would hear them dissing those wanna be's on the blog too, like they care if we exist, they have work to do, we are entertaining ourselves and hopefully learning in the process??? LOL
678. scla08
7:49 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Sunset is almost upon it.
Link

I was just wondering.. I know some of you have said that convection builds and dies at certain times. When are those times?
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
677. RL3AO
7:45 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
675. IKE
7:45 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:41 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:39 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.

Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon

you emailed the navy site?

Taz ALWAYS does stuff like that... that is why Aaron banned him from his blog... I never understand why he always does that, like he thinks he knows more than they do? I bet that all of his emails go into their Spam box... and personally I would do the same if somebody kept emailing me like that... he also emails the NHC and other places as well...


OMG!!!!!!!!

You've gotta be kidding...which I know you're not.

Jeez...TAZ. Like Patrap said...let them do their jobs. We're just bloggers.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
674. Tazmanian
7:45 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
STL aron had un ban me from his blog



i this have the driest water year in
thirty years
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
673. Drakoen
7:45 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
672. nash28
7:44 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Been pretty busy at work this afternoon... I see certain folks are pissed off that the Navy nor the NHC have called an invest yet.

Patience folks.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
671. SCwxwatch
7:44 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 7:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

Im not surprised some of you are surprised. Its way out in the C Atlantic..its an area of interest. It is no threat to anything. A criteria has to be met for a depression..an invest can be called at any time. Please refrain from dissing the NHC ..and let the people do their job.They are the pros....we are just bloggers.


I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express lastnight

:0P
670. RL3AO
7:43 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
What do these punks with doctorates in meteorology know about the tropics. LOL.
669. groundman
7:43 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Re tropical wave @ 8N 89W or wherever it may be now.

We all sit around rubbing hands together, laughing ghoulishly, saying we're gonna have an invest, we're gonna have an invest. LOL

Dishes and laundry call me. BBL
668. Drakoen
7:43 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
LOL MichaelSTL. oh well. this is my first time considering mailing the NHC but i think i ahve learned my lesson already.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
667. Drakoen
7:42 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Even if it doesn come up on the Navy site that doesn't mean that the waves status as far as organization wiil change. Sure you get a few good pics though. Now to wait for the 18z runs.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
666. MichaelSTL
7:41 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:39 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.

Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon

you emailed the navy site?


Taz ALWAYS does stuff like that... that is why Aaron banned him from his blog... I never understand why he always does that, like he thinks he knows more than they do? I bet that all of his emails go into their Spam box... and personally I would do the same if somebody kept emailing me like that... he also emails the NHC and other places as well...
Member Since: February 22, 2006 Posts: 94 Comments: 32744
665. Drakoen
7:40 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
lol very true patrap.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
664. Patrap
7:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Im not surprised some of you are surprised. Its way out in the C Atlantic..its an area of interest. It is no threat to anything. A criteria has to be met for a depression..an invest can be called at any time. Please refrain from dissing the NHC ..and let the people do their job.They are the pros....we are just bloggers.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129352
663. scla08
7:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
If you slow down the loop, you could see what I'm talking about better..
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
662. Drakoen
7:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon


you emailed the navy site?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
661. Crisis57
7:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
so Taz whats the thinking this will be our next depression the wave looks very impressive since this morning
660. RL3AO
7:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
So you can't get an answer from the NHC, so lets try to get the military to respond to your email?

:D
659. NormalGuy
7:38 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Hey guys, I have been watching and once again not talking but here goes. This wave while interesting is only a drop in the bucket compared to what is to come. IMHO, I think this season is going to come down to where not if the Cat 3's and 4's strike. There are a lot of frightening comparisons that can be made to 2005 and the SST's are actually a bit more impressive this year. If La Nina actually takes course like predicted this blog will be busier than the Social Security office on the First... (thats my tid bit with a touch of humor) Lets watch this wave develop tonight and tomorrow will be interesting...
658. groundman
7:38 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Drakoen, you have mail.
657. scla08
7:38 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
At the very last frame, it looks like, again, there's a blow up of convection to the SE of the center. Also noted is some convection trying to form on the SW of the center, but not a lot.

Link
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
656. Drakoen
7:38 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
lol. dense clouds over the center. I think it needs to get closer to be deemed invest 96L. who knows. maybe in an hour and a half it will be up.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
655. drusierDMD
7:38 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
lol call the NHC
654. Tazmanian
7:38 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
this wave is looking more good by the 1hr
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
653. Tazmanian
7:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
this e mail the navy site they sould have 96L up vary soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
652. weathermanwannabe
7:36 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Sorry folks..........All those clouds start looking the same after a while......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9372
651. Crisis57
7:34 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
hmm so whats the thinking that this will even be called an invest by today im surprised it hasn't been
650. WPBHurricane05
7:34 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Nothing on the Navy site.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
649. scla08
7:34 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
I'm surprised that it isn't 96L either.. I think that it should be, especially since it has a real good spin to it and because it looks like it has a little banding of convection. It's also in a fairly good spot for it to develop.
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 272
648. groundman
7:33 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:28 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.
when i send the email i get that the message failed to send. the NHC is good about being conservative about this wave.


Go to the hurricane/forecasts page and use that guys email address. Think his last name starts with a G, I can't get to email address @ this present moment.
647. weathermanwannabe
7:33 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Unless I missed some of the conversations (due to work), I think the Navy has it up as an invest on their site...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9372
646. Drakoen
7:33 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
if someone sends them a message please let me knwo what they say.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
645. Drakoen
7:28 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
when i send the email i get that the message failed to send. the NHC is good about being conservative about this wave.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
644. RL3AO
7:27 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Its still not a TD, but I am very surprised that is has not been called 96L.
643. WPBHurricane05
7:27 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Uh oh Story, do we have to evacuate Panama City? LOL j/k

Is it because of Dennis or would he head to Pensacola?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
642. Drakoen
7:27 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
lol storyofthecane....
Waves coming of Africa seem to want to bypass the SAL and go under it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
641. stoormfury
7:26 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
the NHC as usual is taking it's time to ascertain if the wave could be classified as a disturbance or TD
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
640. groundman
7:26 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:23 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.
lol ok. I won't just wanted a personal input. I don't even have their number just a suggestion since Hurricane23 did it with Barry. Can someone email them. I am trying to but it doesn't seem to be going through.


I emailed them about one of their webpages being off and they responded fairly quickly, I just know they do respond. Just use the address on the pages.
638. StoryOfTheCane
7:25 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
just wait til nighttime settles in guys, this thing will be fun to watch regardless of whether it forms or not
637. StoryOfTheCane
7:24 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
just got off the phone with Jim Cantore, he's headed to Panama City
636. lightning10
7:24 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
I just saw a new color on the weather channel. Pink in AZ it was 120 degrees on the 7 day outlook.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
635. Drakoen
7:23 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
lol ok. I won't just wanted a personal input. I don't even have their number just a suggestion since Hurricane23 did it with Barry. Can someone email them. I am trying to but it doesn't seem to be going through.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30674
634. IKE
7:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 2:20 PM CDT on July 02, 2007.
Drakeon, If everyone call the NHC they would be overwhelmed with calls. That is why they put out the outlook and discussion. Read it and that will tell you what they are thinking.

I would never, ever think of calling them.


They would be pissed. Deservedly so. LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
632. IKE
7:20 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Call them? It's 1200 miles from the Antilles. Their not gonna take phone calls. No way.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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