All quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:22 PM GMT on July 01, 2007

Share this Blog
2
+

Clouds and showers associated with a weak trough of low pressure extend off the east coast of Florida several hundred miles to the northeast. Wind shear has dropped to about 20 knots over this system, so some slow organization is possible over the next day as it moves east-northeast away from the U.S. coast. However, wind shear is expected to increase on Monday over the disturbance, as it approaches the cold front from an extratropical cyclone. The disturbance should merge with the front by Wednesday without developing into a tropical depression. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation anywhere in the Atlantic over the coming week. Have a great 4th of July holiday week, everyone!

I'll post my July hurricane season outlook early Monday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 804 - 754

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

804. WPBHurricane05
2:32 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
801. moonlightcowboy
2:06 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
I hear ya, JP...keep posting 'em. What do you see the chances of it strengthening during the day today?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
799. moonlightcowboy
1:58 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Link

The ITCZ drops about three or four degrees further south at about 40W. I think we'll see the coriolis effect take place somewhere between 40-45W and 96L will be declared. Past that westwards, I think it could have a tough time making a turn and likely run into the SA coast. IMVHO.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
798. Canesfan68
1:48 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
So according to the surface map, the heavy convection should run into South America, but the low should lift west-northwestward, and regorganize itself?
797. Chicklit
1:47 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Oh boy...guess I better fire up the generator and burn off some old gas...just in case.
Gas for the grill...steaks, wings. Hmmm.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11503
795. nash28
1:42 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Good point JP. Some of those waves end up outrunning their convection.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
792. nash28
1:35 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
I think an Invest is a pretty safe bet at this time. Conditions are just right enough for a TD to develop. It does have dry air to the west of it to deal with, but I don't think there is enough to hinder and choke it off completely.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
791. stoormfury
1:33 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
JP WHAT IS YOUR TAKEON THE CATL DISTURBANCE
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2835
790. moonlightcowboy
1:33 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Good morning, all!
Hey, given all the conditions, 96L is suspect! My guess is we'll see an invest declared later today!

Have a good day everyone and...
H A P P Y B I R T H D A Y, N O L A !!!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29613
788. nash28
1:30 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Morning JP.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
785. ricderr
1:24 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
oh god.....dauntless advertising......LMAO.....i don't have a problem with blog promotions....but to advertise your business on here.....well....another new low....or maybe..i guess another hi for WU..they're attracting spammers
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 23660
784. weathermanwannabe
1:21 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Welcome back JP.....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
783. Chicklit
1:19 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Welcome to the Blog Nolanell...Your brother has been an interesting and informative blogger on this site! Happy Birthday, too.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11503
780. miamihurricane12
1:16 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: weatherman99 at 12:46 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

I think its already a Depression .


while it is looking better and there is cyclonic turning going on...we do not know if there is closed low at the surface and it is lacking deep convection. If it can achieve both of those today then tomorrow we may have a tropical depression, but it is no where near depression status at this time
779. kmanislander
1:15 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Have a great day Nolanell !
Check your WU mail for a welcome to the blog
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16286
778. GetReal
1:02 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 1:00 PM GMT on July 02, 2007.

If it is developing/developed into a low, interesting to note that it presently has convection on the "leading edge" when the usual problem is getting convection to form/wrap around the front


That is a good indication that the system is not battling windshear...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8962
777. weathermanwannabe
1:00 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
If it is developing/developed into a low, interesting to note that it presently has convection on the "leading edge" when the usual problem is getting convection to form/wrap around the front (the East side needs a little work though)...........BBL this afternoon.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
776. kmanislander
12:57 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
here is the surface forecast map. Two things to note IMO. The first is that the wave is shown as a closed low moving to the WNW on the 5th July. Secondly, there is a big ridge of high pressure to the N that would block early recurvature if it held. The next few days will be interesting to watch

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16286
775. Patrap
12:57 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Thanks,,shes my sister,,,,Shes been a lurking and decided to dive in...Thanks again Homegirl. Tell the Ol man..Happy Birthday too!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
774. stoormfury
12:57 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
it now looks that most persons are beginning to see what i said about this system three days ago,this system could pose a threat to the central windwards.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2835
773. homegirl
12:55 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Thanks Kman, i knew it wasn't from today, but it was the most recent pass at the time. I'm interested to see an updated pass!

Pat, I dropped nell a line! It's my hubby's bday today too!
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
772. eaglesrock
12:54 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Shear is low enough to develop this into Chantal, but I don't think that will happen.
771. GetReal
12:53 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Once it gets a little better organized, the Coriolis Effect should bring it on a coarse of W by WNW...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8962
770. nash28
12:50 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
All things considered, I imagine this will be 96L very soon if it holds up.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
769. Patrap
12:49 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
N Atlantic Imagery..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
767. GetReal
12:48 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
This system is looking like one of those rare TS, or hurricanes that strike Trinidad and continue to track west. These type storms usually continue west along the north coast of Venezuela, and threaten the ABC Islands...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8962
766. kmanislander
12:47 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
good morning all

I am heading up to Fla for two days but thought I would say a quick hello
The wave is looking very good now and the circulation is quite evident. However, it will need to gain latitude otherwise it will go ashore in SA.As a slow mover it has time to do that. It is well defined for so early in July.

If the system gains in organization we will likely see a poleward movement more to the WNW.

Homegirl, that quikscat pass was from 20:10 yesterday. You can tell the time of a pass from the purple letters at the bottom of the image to the right. The time at the top of the page is not the time of the pass itself
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16286
764. weathermanwannabe
12:45 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
BTW, as I look at the vis and rgb loops this morning on the CATL wave, all other factors being equal (with the exception of shear issues) I'd hazard a guess that we may have a TD within the next 24 hours [disclaimer- "not wishcasting, just an amatuer observation not to be considered as a substitute, nor to be relied upon, as an official source of information!].......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
761. Patrap
12:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Hello and Good morning. I would like to introduce a new member who posted in my blog this AM. She is "nolanell".

If one can..drop her a welcome wu-mail.Her blog is not up yet,but she is a very important person in my Life and today is her Birthday. The gesture would be most appreciated. Thanks,...Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 134828
760. nash28
12:39 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Morning all.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
759. pottery2
12:36 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
'mornin' . I see the wave is still there and looking OK. Good. We need some real rain in Trinidad.
758. GetReal
12:34 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Hello SJ and others... Great point SOC, what dust!!! This system is far enough south to avoid the effects of the SAL... The Aores high will continue to drive this developing TD towards the Windward Islands...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8962
757. stoormfury
12:34 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
it already has a sfc. there is even slight outflow in the n circ.conditons are perfect for the system becoming an invest. 96L
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2835
756. WPBHurricane05
12:33 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
24 hour forecast
48 hour forecast
72 hour forecast
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
755. weathermanwannabe
12:32 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
Good Morning All...Will be lurking this morning due to work and waiting for the T-Storms to fire up in the Panhandle later today (I'm over in Bonifay today)...The CATL wave is looking pretty good, but too far south at this point (we'll see in another 3-4 days). Also, waiting for JP to jump back in the saddle after a rough one last night...Hang In There Dude!
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11150
754. eaglesrock
12:30 PM GMT on July 02, 2007
It's already a low.

Viewing: 804 - 754

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Overcast
70 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
Rainbow in Riverside Geyser